#중국 # 모건스탠리 중국 주식전략: 미 중간선거 영향 ## 세줄요약 1. 민주당이 의회를 장악해도 미·중 갈등의 방향은 그대로이고, 형태만 바뀐다. 정책이 급변할 가능성은 줄지만 대중 강경 기조는 초당적이다. 2. 전달 경로는 4개다: AI 차별화, 무역 안정, 유가·금리 하락, 녹색에너지 복귀. 지수 전체가 재평가되기보다는 업종 안에서 선별적 로테이션**이 일어날 것으로 본다. 3. 밸류는 역사적 저점 대비 10% 위에 있고, 심리는 과매도이며, 국가대 매수와 자사주 매입 대출 같은 안정화 장치가 있다. 그래서 **시장 전체에 공격적으로 베팅하기보다 여러 업종에서 고르는 종목 선별**을 권한다. --- ## 핵심 논리: "방향이 아니라 형태" - 민주당 의회는 행정부를 재정·외교·내정 전반에서 견제한다. 2025년처럼 행정명령으로 …

Channel
뉴스/재료 발굴하기
@crabintheshell
On this record: Topic · Previous handles · Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Reactions · Posts · Citations · Cite this entry
871subscribers
+8 since we began measuring on 6 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of Under 1,000.
Register entry
| Telegram ID | -1002317812294 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @crabintheshell |
| Created | Between 1 September 2024 and 31 March 2025 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated. |
| First recorded | 6 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 7 November 2026 |
| Measurements held | 3 |
| On Telegram | t.me/crabintheshell |
Topic
National news — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 7 November 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 27% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and the other topics.
Previous handles
@crabintheshell was previously reachable at this handle, before switching to its current one. This says nothing about who or what answers at the old handle today — only that this channel no longer does.
held 6 August 2026 – 6 August 2026
Growth
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026, 16:22 | 871 | +12 |
| 7 Aug 2026, 06:24 | 859 | -4 |
| 6 Aug 2026, 19:16 | 863 | first reading |
Engagement
39 posts held, back to 5 August 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 2 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
- ERR · 30 days
- 20.1%
- avg views ÷ 871 subscribers
- Avg views / post
- 175
- 20 posts measured
- Reaction rate
- 2.05%
- reactions ÷ views · ER floor
- Posts in window
- 20
- of 39 held
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate. It is computed over the 3 of 20 measured posts that carry a reaction reading, and over those same posts' views.
| Window | Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 7 November 2026 |
|---|---|
| Posts held | 39 (5 August 2026 – 7 November 2026) |
| Views total | 3,493 |
| Reactions total | 7 |
| Forwards / comments | not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated |
| Readings taken | 7 Nov 2026, 16:22 UTC |
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
What this channel posts
- Photos
- ≈3,650
- Videos
- ≈175
- Links
- ≈9,600
Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 7 November 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. A count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints these counters in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈142,000 means somewhere between 141,500 and 142,499.
Reaction mix
9 reactions across 4 posts, in 3 distinct kinds. The most used accounts for 66.7% of them.
| Reaction | Count | Share | Share, drawn |
|---|---|---|---|
| 👍 | 6 | 66.7% | |
| 😭 | 2 | 22.2% | |
| 🤬 | 1 | 11.1% |
No sentiment is inferred, and none should be read in. This table is ordered by count and by nothing else. Emoji do not carry stable meaning across languages or communities — 🙏 is thanks in one channel and mourning in another — so we publish which ones were pressed and how often, and pass no judgement on what an audience meant by them.
Precision. Telegram publishes reaction counts per emoji and short-forms each one — 4.34K, 1.2M — so any single kind at or above 1,000 reaches us at three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. The shares above are ratios of those figures and carry the same error. This is also why the total here can differ slightly from a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page: both are sums of the same rounded parts, taken over samples with different edges.
Coverage. Reactions were read on 4 of the 39 sampled posts in this sample. Summed by Telegram’s own count on each post — not by adding up the per-emoji breakdown above — those same posts carry 9 reactions in total: the kind of figure the paragraph above means by “a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page”.
Measured over the 39 most recent posts we hold, published 5 August 2026 to 7 November 2026, using the newest reading held for each. Telegram Stars are excluded: they are a payment, not a reaction, and they have their own section.
Recent posts
Telegram’s own ‘edited’ marker: 1 of 20 posts held from the last 30 days (5.00%) carried it when this register last read them. The marker says a post was changed after publishing, not what it said before — this register holds the earlier wording only where an edit fell between two of its own reads (see the edit ledger and how it is measured).
주가폭락했는데 삼전닉스 LTA 믿어도 되나…마이크론 사례 보니 -메모리 가격 내년 4분기 고점 대비 60% 하락해야 해지 유인 생겨 https://news.einfomax.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=4443491
https://n.news.naver.com/article/014/0005600768?ntype=RANKING
https://n.news.naver.com/article/014/0005600789?ntype=RANKING
AI 투자가 미국 성장의 동력이니 블루 웨이브도 막을 수 없다는 주장들이 보임 숫자만 보면, AI 투자 중 상당수는 한국, 대만 등으로 유출. 만약 투자비가 100이라면, 미국에 창출되는 부가가치는 20-30 정도 밖에 되지 않을 거임 늘어난 일자리도 건설 등 일부. 그것도 완공되면 사라지고, 일부 유지인력만 남음. 지역민들에게는 데이터 센터는 계륵도 아니고 닭발톱 같은 존재일 수도
젠슨 황 엔비디아 최고경영자(CEO)의 장녀인 매디슨 황 엔비디아 옴니버스·로보틱스 제품 마케팅 수석이사의 한국 방문이 취소됐다. https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026110724057
[키움 허혜민] AI가 신약 개발 혁신에 대해 빅파마 CEO들은 회의적 (WSJ) WSJ, 11/3 실리콘밸리는 AI가 질병을 치료할 것이라고 약속하지만, 제약사 CEO들은 믿지 않는다고 보도. 현재까지 AI가 설계한 신약 중 FDA 승인 받은 사례 없으며, 글로벌 제약사 경영진은 복잡한 인간 생물학을 가장 큰 장애물로 지목 Anthropic CEO는 5~10년 내 AI가 대부분의 인간 질병을 치료할 수 있다고 전망. 반면 Vertex의 Jeff Leiden 회장은 AI 기업 약 50곳을 활용해 1만 개 후보물질 데이터를 분석했지만, 실제 작동하는 신약을 만들어내지 못했다고 설명. AI는 과학자의 보조 도구로는 유용하지만 독립적으로 신약을 개발하기에는 한계가 있다는 입장 AZ의 Pascal CEO 역시 AI 신약개발에 신중한 시각. 질…
MSCI 신흥 시장 종목 중 200일 이동평균선을 상회하는 종목은 약 25%에 불과합니다. 해당 차트의 과거 평균치는 56.5%입니다.
https://m.clien.net/service/board/park/19289094
⚠️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚠️ 민주당 안도걸, 2029년 코인 과세 부과 위해 거래자료 의무 제출을 내년부터 시행하는 법안 발의
🤬1
<미너비니 "중간선거 이후 불확실성 해소, 계절적으로 유리한 구간에 들어왔다"> 1. 시장이 흔들린 이유: 결과가 나빠서가 아니라 '예상 밖'이라서 미너비니는 지금 시장을 흔드는 것이 "누가 이겼냐"가 아니라 "이렇게까지 크게 이길 줄 몰랐다"는 놀라움이라고 본다. 시장은 좋은 뉴스든 나쁜 뉴스든 미리 예상하고 있으면 주가에 반영해 둔다. 문제는 아무도 예상하지 못한 결과다. 준비가 안 돼 있으니 일단 출렁일 수밖에 없다 2. '분열정부' 대통령과 의회가 다른 당이면 오히려 예측하기 쉬워진다 이제 대통령은 공화당, 의회는 민주당인 상황이 됐다. 이를 '분열 정부'라고 부른다. 이렇게 되면 어느 한쪽이 세금, 정부 지출, 규제를 마음대로 크게 바꾸기 어렵다. 정책이 갑자기 뒤집힐 가능성이 줄어드는 셈이고, 주식시장은 이런 예측 가능한…
👍2
하락장이 끝나면 꼭 부자가 돼 있는 사람들이 있다. 누굴까. 공포에 질렸을 때 바닥에서 사는 저가매수파? 아쉽지만 이분들은 생각만큼 부자가 되지 못했다. 주가가 빠지면 분할매수를 시작한다. 여기까진 좋다. 문제는 주가가 생각보다 더 빠진다는 거다. 진짜 싼 가격이 왔을 때 계좌엔 이미 현금이 없다. 결국 손가락만 빨면서 구경한다. 바닥과 꼭지는 아무도 못 맞힌다. 나도 못 맞힌다. 그래도 그냥 들고만 있으면 다행이다. 현금은 다 썼는데 주가는 계속 내려가고 뉴스는 매일같이 더 빠진다고 하고 나 자신을 돌아보면 판단 미스만 떠오른다. 그러다 결국 공포를 못 이기고 투매에 동참한다. 이런 모습을 정말 많이 봤다. 대응할 자신이 없다면 차라리 가만히 있는 게 제일 현명할 수도 있다. 그럼 부지런히 사고파는 쪽은 어떨까. 싸게 사서 기술적 반등…
Showing the 12 most recent of 39 posts we hold for @crabintheshell. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Forward network
Republished by
Channels on the register that have forwarded this channel's posts into their own feed.
Republishes
Channels on the register whose posts this channel has forwarded.
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Built only from forwarded posts we have actually read, on both sides. Coverage is early and deliberately incomplete: a missing link means we have not read the post that would prove it, never that the relationship does not exist. Counts are distinct forwarded posts observed, so they only ever go up as we read more.
Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 7 November 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“뉴스/재료 발굴하기” (@crabintheshell), 871 subscribers as measured 7 November 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/crabintheshell.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.