Авторский канал инвестора Павла Шумилова. Аналитика по компаниям.
✉️ Контакты
Редакция: @shumilov_redaction
Менеджер: @invest_kanaly
О рекламе: @shumilov_ads
Биржа: https://telega.in/c/ShumilovPavel
Все мои каналы: https://t.me/addlist/YGNNsjd8Pfg0ZjE6
Created
Between 1 December 2021 and 30 April 2023 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated.
Marketing & affiliate — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 9 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 37% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and the other topics.
Growth
60 measurements spanning 92 days, net -603. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 30,846–31,649 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded, most recent 20 of 60
Measured (UTC)
Subscribers
Change
6 Nov 2026, 13:16
30,939
-7
5 Nov 2026, 14:29
30,946
-8
4 Nov 2026, 13:29
30,954
-4
3 Nov 2026, 16:54
30,958
-10
2 Nov 2026, 17:29
30,968
-2
1 Nov 2026, 20:56
30,970
-1
31 Oct 2026, 21:59
30,971
-6
30 Oct 2026, 22:44
30,977
-11
29 Oct 2026, 20:19
30,988
-7
28 Oct 2026, 21:55
30,995
-9
27 Oct 2026, 17:38
31,004
-6
26 Oct 2026, 20:51
31,010
-6
25 Oct 2026, 18:28
31,016
-7
24 Oct 2026, 20:27
31,023
-19
23 Oct 2026, 19:29
31,042
-7
22 Oct 2026, 17:57
31,049
-16
21 Oct 2026, 13:06
31,065
-14
20 Oct 2026, 07:10
31,079
-26
19 Oct 2026, 07:06
31,105
-16
18 Oct 2026, 08:37
31,121
first reading
Engagement
376 posts held, back to 5 August 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 166 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
ERR · 30 days
8.96%
avg views ÷ 30,939 subscribers
Avg views / post
2,770
132 posts measured
Reaction rate
1.97%
reactions ÷ views · ER floor
Posts in window
132
of 376 held
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.
What these figures were computed from
Window
Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 6 November 2026
Posts held
376 (5 August 2026 – 6 November 2026)
Views total
366,105
Reactions total
7,226
Forwards / comments
not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated
Readings taken
7 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
What this channel posts
Photos
≈12,400
Videos
≈276
Links
≈3,840
Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 7 November 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. A count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints these counters in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈142,000 means somewhere between 141,500 and 142,499.
Video runtime
9m 11s
Average length
37s
Measured directly from 15 videos with a duration reading, out of the posts we hold for this channel — not this channel’s whole posting history, only the sample this register has actually read. An exact reading to the second, taken from the post itself rather than from Telegram’s own rounded chrome, so it carries no ≈ mark.
Reaction mix
22,407 reactions across 376 posts, in 9 distinct kinds. The most used accounts for 48.6% of them.
Every reaction kind recorded on the sample, most used first
Reaction
Count
Share
Share, drawn
👍
10,887
48.6%
🤔
2,610
11.6%
👎
2,259
10.1%
😁
2,149
9.59%
❤
1,763
7.87%
💯
1,386
6.19%
🔥
993
4.43%
😭
278
1.24%
custom 5312427460531344205
82
0.366%
Custom emoji. One row above is a Telegram custom emoji, which the public preview renders as an element carrying only a numeric id — no character, and no image we can reach. The id is printed as-is rather than substituted with a look-alike glyph, because a stand-in would be our invention showing where a measurement should be. The count beside it is Telegram’s.
No sentiment is inferred, and none should be read in. This table is ordered by count and by nothing else. Emoji do not carry stable meaning across languages or communities — 🙏 is thanks in one channel and mourning in another — so we publish which ones were pressed and how often, and pass no judgement on what an audience meant by them.
Precision. Telegram publishes reaction counts per emoji and short-forms each one — 4.34K, 1.2M — so any single kind at or above 1,000 reaches us at three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. The shares above are ratios of those figures and carry the same error. This is also why the total here can differ slightly from a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page: both are sums of the same rounded parts, taken over samples with different edges.
Coverage. Reactions were read on 376 of the 376 sampled posts in this sample. Summed by Telegram’s own count on each post — not by adding up the per-emoji breakdown above — those same posts carry 22,407 reactions in total: the kind of figure the paragraph above means by “a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page”.
Measured over the 376 most recent posts we hold, published 5 August 2026 to 6 November 2026, using the newest reading held for each. Telegram Stars are excluded: they are a payment, not a reaction, and they have their own section.
Telegram Stars
Stars received
29
across the posts below
Posts paid on
7
of 376 we hold a reading for · 2%
Most on one post
15
single highest reading
A paid reaction is a reader spending Telegram Stars — bought with money — on a post by @ShumilovPavel. Telegram publishes the count on the public post preview alongside ordinary reactions, and this register reads it there. It is the only figure on this site that measures money moving rather than attention.
Stars are not reactions, and the two are never added. They are rendered in the same strip on Telegram and counted in the same shape, but one is a tap and the other is a purchase. The reaction totals and the engagement rate elsewhere on this page exclude every figure in this section, and no rate here is computed against a reaction count.
This is not revenue, and we publish no currency figure. What a Star costs a reader and what it pays a channel are different numbers, Telegram takes a share we cannot observe, and the terms have changed. Converting a Star count into money would be an estimate dressed as a measurement, so the count is where we stop.
Counted over the 376 most recent posts we hold for this entry, published 5 August 2026 to 6 November 2026. Star counts above 1,000 reach us in Telegram’s short form and carry the same three-significant-figure rounding as everything else on this page.
Advertising
Ad load
1.86%
7 of 376 posts carry an ad marker
Regulatory tokens
4
posts carrying an erid · 4 distinct tokens
Median views · ads
2,260
over 7 measured posts
Median views · rest
2,790
over 369 measured posts
An ad marker, not a judgement about a post. A post is counted here because it carries one of two explicit markings: an erid token, which Russian law has required on paid placements since 2022 and which is issued against a specific advertising contract, or a #реклама / #ad hashtag in the body, which is the channel declaring it itself. The first is documentary; the second is a self-declaration and is weaker. No classifier reads the text and decides — nothing on this site guesses that a post is an advertisement.
This is a floor, and it can only ever be a floor. A channel that runs paid placements without marking them produces no marker for us to count, and an unmarked ad is indistinguishable from an ordinary post on the public surface. The ad load above therefore means “the share of posts that declared themselves”, never “the share of posts that were paid for”. A low figure is not evidence of a channel that runs few ads.
Both figures are medians, and no ratio between them is published. Each is a view reading that actually occurred on a post, picked by percentile_disc rather than averaged, so one viral post cannot move it and no interpolated value is invented between two readings. They are printed side by side with the count behind each rather than as a ratio: an ad and an ordinary post are not otherwise matched — for topic, for length, for hour of day — so the gap between them is a description of two groups and not the effect of one being an ad.
Advertising tokens recorded on this entry
erid
Posts
First seen
Last seen
2VtzqwvRv8E
1
29 October 2026
29 October 2026
2W5zFHRKsS1
1
20 August 2026
20 August 2026
2W5zFJZpYCq
1
8 August 2026
8 August 2026
2W5zFJraeXj
1
30 September 2026
30 September 2026
A token repeated across several posts is one advertising contract placed more than once, which is what the identifier is for. The strings are reproduced exactly as they appeared in the post or in its click-through URL and are not validated against any registry — we record the marker a channel published, and whether it resolves to a real contract is a question for the register that issued it.
Measured over the 376 most recent posts we hold, published 5 August 2026 to 6 November 2026. Views are the latest single reading held for each post, and any reading at or above 1,000 is rounded by Telegram to three significant figures.
Recent posts
Telegram’s own ‘edited’ marker: 5 of 132 posts held from the last 30 days (3.79%) carried it when this register last read them. The marker says a post was changed after publishing, not what it said before — this register holds the earlier wording only where an edit fell between two of its own reads (see the edit ledger and how it is measured).
📱🏦 «Т-Технологии» предложили выкупить «Циан» с премией 29% #T #CNRU
«Т-Технологии» подали в ЦБ добровольное предложение акционерам «Циан» о покупке до 100% акций по 993,05 руб. за бумагу. Это на 29,3% выше цены закрытия 5 ноября. Группа планирует приобрести минимум 50%, закрыть сделку — в I квартале 2027 года. Допэмиссии не будет.
Реакция рынка
Акции «Циан» взлетели на 21%, до 942 руб. (в моменте рост был до 960 р.…
🏦 Альфа-банк: восемь акций обгонят ставку ЦБ
Аналитики Альфа-банка выделили восемь бумаг, дивидендная доходность которых может превысить ключевую ставку. Список — в обновлённой стратегии «Рынок акций. Российские дивиденды».
Общий прогноз
Сейчас дивдоходность рынка — около 9–10%, что на 7 п.п. ниже доходности десятилетних ОФЗ. Разрыв близок к пятилетним максимумам. Но в базовом прогнозе банка ключевая ставка к лету …
🏭 Акции Селигдара обвалились на деле о хищении ₽8,8 млрд
Котировки упали на 16,55%, облигации потеряли до 28,4%. Распродажа вызвана ужесточением обвинений против совладельцев холдинга, пишет РБК. Им вменяют организацию преступного сообщества для вывода 8,86 млрд рублей из шести НПФ в 2018–2019 годах.
В чем суть
Среди фигурантов — совладельцы «Русских фондов» Сергей Васильев и Константин Бейрит, владеющие долями в «…
🏛 Индекс МосБиржи — куда пойдем 6 ноября 2026 года?
Вчера на рынке были качели: утром индекс проваливался к 2410 пунктов на итогах выборов в США, где демократы взяли Конгресс, но к вечеру отыграл все потери и закрылся ростом на 0,76% — на отметке 2460,67. Поддержку оказали отскочившая нефть и надежды на прогресс в переговорах по Украине. Посмотрим основные новостные события влияющие на торги к утру и корп.новости.
…
💦 РусГидро, аналитика по компании #HYDR #обзор
Сектор: Возобновляемые источники электроэнергии
Последний обзор по РусГидро я делал 8 мая, тогда акции стоили 0,39 р., а я ожидал движения в боковике 0,37-0,45 р., а по самой компании делал вывод "лучше постоять в сторонке". По факту весь следующий месяц акции стояли в боковике 0,377-0,4 р. 🎯, а после завалились вниз вместе со всем рынком, в моменте падали до 0,24 р. По…
⚓️ «Совкомфлот» приватизируют: что с акциями
Государство продаёт 7,8% минус одна акция «Совкомфлота». Доля РФ снизится с 82,8% до 75% плюс одна акция — контроль сохраняется, сообщает РБК. Free-float вырастет с 15,5% примерно до 23%.
Что это значит
▪️ Размытия долей не будет: допэмиссии нет, продаётся госпакет.
▪️ Пакет стоит около ₽15 млрд при капитализации ~₽200 млрд — рынок способен его поглотить.
▪️ Повышается л…
🧟 По рынку ходят Зомби
Видать кто-то дверь на Хэлуин забыл закрыть!
▪️М.Видео +30%
▪️Самолёт +7,5%
▪️ВК +22%
А рынок в это время -0,8%
Странно что не подросли Сегежа или Мечел.
Ну и на всякий случай, покупки акций таких компаний могут сильно ударить по ваши инвестициям. Точно не рекомендую бежать в последний вагон.
📞 Навигация по каналам
▪️Акции (мы тут) ▪️Облигации
▪️Новости ▪️Трейдинг
🏛 Индекс МосБиржи — куда пойдем 5 ноября 2026 года?
Вчера рынок провел укороченную праздничную сессию вблизи отметки 2440 пунктов, практически без изменений: активность была низкой из-за праздника, а участники рынка переваривали итоги выборов в США и корпоративные новости. Давайте посмотрим новостной фон к утру, корп. события, график и подумаю, что может быть на рынке сегодня.
🗞 Новостной фон
▪️ Консорциум америка…
🏠 Сдаёте квартиру? Сравните налоговые режимы
Самый простой вариант — физлицо с декларацией 3-НДФЛ: 13–22% в зависимости от дохода. Но есть варианты выгоднее, пишет Российская газета.
Что выбрать
▪️ Самозанятость — 4% с физлица, 6% с компании. Только для жилья, доход до 2,4 млн ₽ в год и без сотрудников.
▪️ ИП на УСН — 6% с фактического дохода, но здесь есть фиксированные взносы 57 390 р. в год плюс 1% сверх 300 ты…
🔌 Юнипро, аналитика по компании #обзор #UPRO
Сектор: Электроснабжение
Последний обзор по Юнипро был 6 мая, тогда акции стоили 1.385 р. и я ожидал снижения в рамках нисходящего канала до 1.34, от туда отскока до 1.52. По факту акции сначала снижались до 1.34 р. 🎯, а от туда без отскоков и с выходом вниз из нисходящего канала, вместе со всем рынком, валились очень можно, в моменте падали до 0,755 р. Но после акции вос…
🇺🇸 Промежуточные выборы в США
Подсчет голосов на промежуточных выборах в США всё еще идет, но предварительные результаты уже дают картинку, которая сильно не изменится по завершению подсчета. Всё получилось как и предсказывалось ранее, о чем я тоже писал. Обе палаты переходят под контроль Дем.партии США, Трамп сокращает своё влияние.
Что известно по текущим предварительным подсчетам?
▪️Палата представителей
Здесь …
🏛 Индекс МосБиржи — куда пойдем 4 ноября 2026 года?
С добрым утром, друзья! Сегодня у нас праздничный день — День народного единства. Поэтому с праздником, дорогие!
Биржа сегодня работает в рамках "торгов выходного дня".
Вчера рынок снова упал. Индекс МосБиржи потерял 0,58%, опустившись в район 2445 пунктов, а в моменте проваливался до 2423. Вчерашний утренний рост быстро сошел на нет после подтверждения Кремлем да…
👎41🤔21👍9❤2😁2
Showing the 12 most recent of 376 posts we hold for @ShumilovPavel. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Posts edited after publishing
@ShumilovPavel edited 1 post after it first published — the same permalink now carries different wording than the one this register originally read, caught because our own crawl held a copy of the earlier text.
An edit is not deception. Typo fixes, price updates and corrections look exactly like this too — this register can tell you the wording changed and when, not why. How this is measured.
First edit seen
14 October 2026
Most recent edit
14 October 2026
Posts recorded as deleted after publishing
We recorded 10 posts on @ShumilovPavel as deleted — posts this register held that were missing from the channel’s public page on two separate reads, taken from different network addresses at least an hour apart.
A deletion is not wrongdoing. This register can see that a post it held is no longer on the channel’s public page, and when — not why. Expired ad placements, reposts, rotating links and corrections all look the same. This is a count of recorded detections, not an exact total: it misses deletions we could not see, because only a post we held and later re-read inside the page can be seen to go, and it may include a small number of wrong records. How this is measured.
First seen missing
25 August 2026
Most recent seen missing
6 November 2026
Median time before seen missing
39 hours
Seen missing in the last 30 days
3
Polls
The poll we hold for this entry, as Telegram rendered it when we read the post. A poll’s figures keep moving after that, so each one is dated.
11 сентября будет следующее решение по процентной ставке. Ваше мнение, что сделает ЦБ?
Оставит без изменений, 14% как и сейчас.43%
Снизят на 0.25 б.п. до 13.75%43%
Снизят на 0.5 б.п. до 13.5%14%
Повысят на 0.25 б.п. до 14.25%1%
Повысят на 0.5 б.п. до 14.5%2%
Другой вариант (напишите какой)1%
The shares total 104%, above 100: this poll accepts more than one answer per voter. No per-option vote count is published, so the number of voters who chose each option is not derivable and is not shown.
Percentages only — there are no per-option vote counts here, because Telegram publishes none. The public post preview gives each option’s share and a single voter total, and nothing else. Multiplying one by the other would produce a per-option tally that looks measured and is not: the shares are rounded to whole numbers before we ever see them. We print what was published and leave the column that does not exist empty.
The shares need not add up to 100. Rounding alone puts many polls at 99 or 101. A poll that allows more than one answer per voter runs well past 100 by design, and several here do. The bars are drawn against a fixed 100% track at each option’s own percentage rather than normalised to the total, so a poll that exceeds it shows that it does instead of being quietly rescaled.
Read from the 376 most recent posts we hold, published 5 August 2026 to 6 November 2026. Telegram labels each poll by kind — an anonymous poll, a quiz, a closed set of final results — and that label is reproduced rather than paraphrased.
Forward network
Republished by
Channels on the register that have forwarded this channel's posts into their own feed.
Built only from forwarded posts we have actually read, on both sides. Coverage is early and deliberately incomplete: a missing link means we have not read the post that would prove it, never that the relationship does not exist. Counts are distinct forwarded posts observed, so they only ever go up as we read more.
Mentions
Named by 14 registered channels — every channel on the register whose own posts have named this one, by its current username or any other username it currently holds, merged from two separately captured readings of the same fact so a namer caught by only one of them is not missed and a namer both caught is not counted twice. A username this channel has since dropped is not matched — that handle may belong to someone else now, and crediting today’s namer to yesterday’s owner would misattribute it.
Named by
Channels on the register whose posts name this channel's handle.
A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.
Channels Telegram recommends alongside this one
Telegram’s own answer, not this register’s. When this register asks Telegram’s API what is similar to this channel, this is the list it returns, in the exact order Telegram returns it — never re-sorted by subscribers or by anything else this register measures. The relationship, and the order, are Telegram’s; we record them and date them, and make no claim of our own about which of these channels actually resemble this one.
Read from Telegram’s recommendation API, most recently 6 September 2026. Telegram holds a list like this for a small and growing share of the register — how this is measured, and why most channel pages show nothing here.
Appears in Telegram’s recommendations for other channels
The reverse of the list above, and a different kind of signal. This does not require this channel to have ever been asked about directly — each row below is a channel we DID ask Telegram about, whose Telegram-generated list happened to include this one. A channel can appear here with an empty list above it, because being named by someone else’s query is independent of having been queried itself.
ElonNews: бизнес, финансы, экономика @elonn_news · 32,872 Telegram ranks this channel #20 of 78 here — alongside 77 others — read 4 September 2026
Биржевик | Сырьевой @oilgasofficial1 · 26,413 Telegram ranks this channel #34 of 84 here — alongside 83 others — read 12 September 2026
Облигации | Invest Assistance @investassistancebonds · 40,665 Telegram ranks this channel #37 of 85 here — alongside 84 others — read 29 August 2026
ПРОГНОЗЫ ПО КОМПАНИЯМ @NataliaForecast · 30,557 Telegram ranks this channel #40 of 91 here — alongside 90 others — read 6 September 2026
Биржевик | Акции @birzhevikstocksofficial2 · 69,120 Telegram ranks this channel #46 of 91 here — alongside 90 others — read 20 August 2026
Путь инвестора (Давыдов Артем) @put_investor · 32,521 Telegram ranks this channel #76 of 96 here — alongside 95 others — read 4 September 2026
NataliaBaffetovna | Инвестиции @NataliBaff · 42,796 Telegram ranks this channel #77 of 95 here — alongside 94 others — read 28 August 2026
This channel appears in 7 seed channels' Telegram-generated recommendation lists in total. Each is Telegram’s list for THAT channel, not this one — see how this is measured.
Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 6 November 2026 — this
entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“Павел Шумилов - инвестиции, разборы компаний” (@ShumilovPavel), 30,939 subscribers as measured 6 November 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/ShumilovPavel.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.