GS Tony Pasquariello 시장 코멘트 (8/4) 1. 7월에는 유가가 20% 급등했고, 미국 30년물 국채는 32bp 매도됐으며, 시장의 컨센서스 포지션도 거세게 되감겼다. 그 모든 일에도 불구하고 S&P 500은 월간 기준 거의 움직이지 않았다. 이후 며칠 동안 ‘올드 아이언사이즈’는 늘 그래왔듯 역경을 뚫고 전진하고 있으며, 운이 따른다면 오늘 오후 종가 기준 사상 최고치도 넘어설 수 있다. 2. 매매 환경이 쉬웠다는 이야기는 절대 아니다. 2분기의 포물선 같은 상승 국면은 이미 오래전에 지나갔고, 시장은 AI 설비투자에 대해 타당하면서도 매우 까다로운 질문들을 던지고 있다. 그럼에도 이번 실적 시즌은 일부 미국 메가캡 기술주가 여전히 강력한 상방 컨벡시티를 만들어낼 수 있다는 점을 펀더멘털 측면에서 다시 확인시켜줬다. …

Channel
Gromit 공부방
@grmtstudy
On this record: Growth · Engagement · Posts · Citations · Cite this entry
3,410subscribers
-11 since we began measuring on 6 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 3,162–10,000.
Register entry
| Telegram ID | -1002243481565 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @grmtstudy |
| Created | Between 1 May 2024 and 30 September 2024— estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated. |
| First recorded | 6 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 12 August 2026 |
| Measurements held | 5 |
| Confirmed unchanged | 1 time, most recently 12 August 2026 |
| On Telegram | t.me/grmtstudy |
Growth
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026, 10:47 | 3,410 | -2 |
| 9 Aug 2026, 05:21 | 3,412 | -7 |
| 6 Aug 2026, 15:40 | 3,419 | -2 |
| 6 Aug 2026, 10:51 | 3,421 | no change |
| 6 Aug 2026, 10:07 | 3,421 | first reading |
Engagement
19 posts held, back to 24 July 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 3 pagesof Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
- ERR · 30 days
- 51.1%
- avg views ÷ 3,410 subscribers
- Avg views / post
- 1,740
- 18 posts measured
- Reaction rate
- —
- this channel exposes no reaction counts
- Posts in window
- 19
- of 19 held
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views— note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.
| Window | Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 5 August 2026 |
|---|---|
| Posts held | 19 (24 July 2026 – 5 August 2026) |
| Views total | 31,351 |
| Reactions total | — |
| Forwards / comments | not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated |
| Readings taken | 7 Aug 2026, 23:15 UTC |
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
Recent posts
‒ 7월 말 전체 프라임북 그로스레버리지는 301.4%, 넷레버리지는 77.5%. 월간 그로스레버리지가 14.2%p 급감하며 강한 디그로싱 확인 ‒ 다만 그로스레버리지는 여전히 최근 3년 83백분위, 5년 90백분위. 포지션을 완전히 비웠다기보다 과도했던 익스포저를 정리한 성격에 가까움 ‒ 지역별로 미국 그로스레버리지는 6.6%p 증가한 반면 유럽은 13.6%p, 아시아는 9.3%p 감소. 7월 디그로싱은 유럽과 아시아에 집중 source: Goldman Sachs
CDS 프리미엄, 하이퍼스케일러 FCF, CapEx 강도, 순환금융, 중국 DUV, ASP/어닝 델타 둔화, 유가, 금리 인상, 국채 금리, 사이클 피크까지, 어제까지만 해도 시장을 설명하던 온갖 우려가 레오폴드 청산과 반등으로 하루아침에 사라진 걸까 오늘이 찐반인지, 찐 저점 확인인지, 짜장면인지는 그 누구도 모름. V자 반등이 나올지, 더 사야 할지, 지금이라도 팔아야 할지도 마찬가지 모두가 처음 겪는 구간이라 어차피 정답은 없겠지만.. 내릴 때마다 새로운 악재가 붙고, 오르면 또 해석과 포지션이 바뀌는 걸 보면 계속해서 시세가 논리를 만드는 국면이라 생각 하락 초반의 리스크 관리는 분명 중요했고 올해 계좌 YTD 수익률에 엄청난 격차를 불러왔을 것 다만 이제는 악재의 내용 그 자체보다 ‘자리 감수성’에 대한 고민이 더 필요한 …
클라우드 거인 업데이트: AWS(아마존): 연환산 매출 1,690억달러, 전년 대비 37% 성장 (직전 분기 성장률 28%) Azure(마이크로소프트): 연환산 매출 약 1,240억달러(추정), 전년 대비 43% 성장 (직전 분기 성장률 39%) Google Cloud(GSuite 포함): 연환산 매출 990억달러, 전년 대비 82% 성장 (직전 분기 성장률 63%, 두 수치 모두 환율 영향 포함) (원문)
우주의 기운이
부디 최악은 잘 지나갔길
모멘텀의 유쾌한 반란이 시작됐다
어제부로 YTD 음전까지 했던 GS 하이베타 모멘텀 바스켓
인지되는 리스크
AI investor Leopold Aschenbrenner forced to unwind all public stock positions after steep losses, sources say ‒ 운용자산 240억달러 규모의 Situational Awareness가 보유한 상장주식 포지션을 전량 매각한 것으로 전해짐 ‒ SK하이닉스·네비우스·샌디스크·마이크론·코어위브 등 AI 인프라 롱 포지션 급락이 주요 손실 요인 ‒ 어도비 등 소프트웨어 기업에 대한 숏 포지션까지 반대로 급등하면서 손실과 유동성 압박이 확대 ‒ 마진 요건 충족을 위해 BofA·골드만삭스·JP모건 등 프라임브로커가 롱·숏 포지션의 일괄 매각을 지원 ‒ 대형 투자사가 상장자산을 인수하기로 한 것으로 알려졌지만, Anthropic 비상장 지분 매각 여부는 불확실 …
Channel photo updated
홀짝은 못 참지
Showing the 12 most recent of 19 posts we hold for @grmtstudy. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Citation-graph rank
Citation-graph rank — 460,617 of 1,160,990entries in the measured graph. A weighted position computed from the forward and mention edges below — republished posts weigh more than named mentions — and recomputed periodically, over the whole graph. Published only as this ordinal position, never as a score: a position is a fact, and a score printed beside one channel’s name would read as a verdict this register does not make. The two counts beneath stay separate for the same reason mentions are never summed with forwards anywhere else on this page — a named-by count costs nothing to manufacture. The top 100 by this measure, or how it is computed.
Forward network
Republished by
Channels on the register that have forwarded this channel's posts into their own feed.
Republishes
Channels on the register whose posts this channel has forwarded.
Built only from forwarded posts we have actually read, on both sides. Coverage is early and deliberately incomplete: a missing link means we have not read the post that would prove it, never that the relationship does not exist. Counts are distinct forwarded posts observed, so they only ever go up as we read more.
Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 12 August 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“Gromit 공부방” (@grmtstudy), 3,410 subscribers as measured 12 August 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/grmtstudy.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.