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Telegram profile photo for Александр Габуев

Channel

Александр Габуев

@agabuev

On this record: Topic · Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Posts · Citations · Cross-platform identity · Cite this entry

15,449subscribers

-313 since we began measuring on 6 August 2026

Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 10,000–31,623.

Register entry

Telegram ID-1001747904977
TypeChannel
Username@agabuev
DescriptionКанал о геополитике директора Берлинского центра Карнеги по изучению России и Евразии Александра Габуева. Вопросы, в том числе для следующих видео на ютуб-канале Carnegie Politika, собираем здесь: @askgabuevbot
Created31 January 2022 — measured — cross-checked against a third-party dataset (ext.tg_channel)
First recorded6 August 2026
Last confirmed live10 November 2026
Measurements held60
Confirmed unchanged1 time, most recently 10 November 2026
On Telegramt.me/agabuev

Topic

Politics & activism — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 10 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 70% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and the other topics.

Growth

15,44915,76215,605.56 August 2026 — 15,762 subscribers6 August 2026 — 15,759 subscribers7 August 2026 — 15,753 subscribers9 August 2026 — 15,751 subscribers9 August 2026 — 15,747 subscribers10 August 2026 — 15,746 subscribers12 August 2026 — 15,740 subscribers14 August 2026 — 15,734 subscribers15 August 2026 — 15,728 subscribers18 August 2026 — 15,726 subscribers19 August 2026 — 15,716 subscribers20 August 2026 — 15,714 subscribers23 August 2026 — 15,710 subscribers24 August 2026 — 15,705 subscribers25 August 2026 — 15,707 subscribers26 August 2026 — 15,710 subscribers27 August 2026 — 15,712 subscribers28 August 2026 — 15,710 subscribers30 August 2026 — 15,708 subscribers31 August 2026 — 15,705 subscribers1 September 2026 — 15,702 subscribers2 September 2026 — 15,700 subscribers3 September 2026 — 15,693 subscribers4 September 2026 — 15,689 subscribers8 September 2026 — 15,683 subscribers10 September 2026 — 15,673 subscribers12 September 2026 — 15,662 subscribers14 September 2026 — 15,656 subscribers16 September 2026 — 15,649 subscribers18 September 2026 — 15,640 subscribers2 October 2026 — 15,597 subscribers7 October 2026 — 15,588 subscribers11 October 2026 — 15,579 subscribers14 October 2026 — 15,568 subscribers15 October 2026 — 15,562 subscribers16 October 2026 — 15,560 subscribers17 October 2026 — 15,559 subscribers18 October 2026 — 15,558 subscribers19 October 2026 — 15,555 subscribers20 October 2026 — 15,556 subscribers20 October 2026 — 15,551 subscribers22 October 2026 — 15,543 subscribers23 October 2026 — 15,541 subscribers24 October 2026 — 15,538 subscribers25 October 2026 — 15,536 subscribers26 October 2026 — 15,533 subscribers27 October 2026 — 15,531 subscribers28 October 2026 — 15,525 subscribers29 October 2026 — 15,527 subscribers30 October 2026 — 15,524 subscribers31 October 2026 — 15,517 subscribers1 November 2026 — 15,511 subscribers2 November 2026 — 15,507 subscribers3 November 2026 — 15,485 subscribers4 November 2026 — 15,469 subscribers5 November 2026 — 15,466 subscribers6 November 2026 — 15,461 subscribers8 November 2026 — 15,456 subscribers9 November 2026 — 15,453 subscribers10 November 2026 — 15,449 subscribers6 August 202610 November 2026
60 measurements spanning 97 days, net -313. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 15,402–15,809 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded, most recent 20 of 60
Measured (UTC)SubscribersChange
10 Nov 2026, 22:4515,449-4
9 Nov 2026, 09:4915,453-3
8 Nov 2026, 00:1815,456-5
6 Nov 2026, 21:0115,461-5
5 Nov 2026, 18:4015,466-3
4 Nov 2026, 17:1015,469-16
3 Nov 2026, 19:4715,485-22
2 Nov 2026, 20:0815,507-4
1 Nov 2026, 16:5815,511-6
31 Oct 2026, 16:5815,517-7
30 Oct 2026, 13:2815,524-3
29 Oct 2026, 10:3615,527+2
28 Oct 2026, 10:3615,525-6
27 Oct 2026, 08:0615,531-2
26 Oct 2026, 05:4115,533-3
25 Oct 2026, 06:0715,536-2
24 Oct 2026, 05:4015,538-3
23 Oct 2026, 05:0015,541-2
22 Oct 2026, 04:1815,543-8
20 Oct 2026, 22:5115,551first reading

Engagement

21 posts held, back to 17 March 2025 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 73 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.

ERR · 30 days
32.0%
avg views ÷ 15,449 subscribers
Avg views / post
4,950
1 post measured
Reaction rate
—
this channel exposes no reaction counts
Posts in window
1
of 21 held

ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.

ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.

What these figures were computed from
WindowRolling 30 days · latest post in window 3 November 2026
Posts held21 (17 March 2025 – 3 November 2026)
Views total4,950
Reactions total—
Forwards / commentsnot exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated
Readings taken12 Nov 2026, 06:55 UTC

Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.

Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.

Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.

What this channel posts

Photos
6
Links
111

Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 12 November 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. Below Telegram’s rounding threshold, so these counts are exact.

Recent posts

Telegram’s own ‘edited’ marker: 0 of 1 post held from the last 30 days (0%) carried it when this register last read them. The marker says a post was changed after publishing, not what it said before — this register holds the earlier wording only where an edit fell between two of its own reads (see the edit ledger and how it is measured).

3 Nov 2026, 17:26 UTC≈4,950 viewsread 12 November 2026

Обсудили с Владом Гориным из @meduzalive предстоящие переговоры в Абу-Даби и возможный саммит 🇨🇳🇷🇺🇺🇸 в Шэньчжэне. За последние две недели вероятность встречи в этом формате возросла с «почти наверняка не состоится» до «более 50% вероятность, что состоится». Почему? А вот и разбираем. https://youtu.be/lMeRDw0pfvs?is=C_3ekaR3LgtvKpyB

22 Jul 2026, 10:16 UTC≈11,400 viewsread 12 November 2026

Поговорили с Владом Гориным обо всем на свете (войне, переговорах и редакционной политике The Economist). https://youtu.be/y45UfBVN-Ps

5 Jun 2026, 11:04 UTC≈15,400 viewsread 12 November 2026
Forwarded from @carnegiepolitika

Стрим: становится ли Россия вассалом Китая? Умаров и Чигадаев С начала войны российский рынок стал куда сильнее зависеть от Китая — от экспорта топлива до китайскими брендами одежды, машин и других товаров. Последует ли за экономическим разворотом на Китай разворот политический, интересно ли это Пекину и как Россия очерчивает границы своей зависимости? Подключайтесь сегодня в 19:00 МСК / 18:00 CEST к стриму, в кото…

23 May 2026, 12:57 UTC≈14,500 viewsread 12 November 2026
Forwarded from @baunovhaus

От силы Сибири к силе Си. Действительно ли Си Цзиньпин принимал Путина иначе, чем Трампа. А как Трампа? А кто больше увез и привез? И что с силой Сибири? А с Боингами? И с китайским посредничеством в войне в Украине? И действительно ли Пекин выступил как столица мира? 18+ НАСТОЯЩИЙ МАТЕРИАЛ (ИНФОРМАЦИЯ) ПРОИЗВЕДЕН И РАСПРОСТРАНЕН ИНОСТРАННЫМ АГЕНТОМ БАУНОВЫМ АЛЕКСАНДРОМ ГЕРМАНОВИЧЕМ ЛИБО КАСАЕТСЯ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ ИНОС…

15 May 2026, 23:49 UTC≈16,300 viewsread 12 November 2026

Давно я не брал в руки косточки от мацзяна и не писал про отношения США и КНР. Саммит Си-Трамп застал меня на американском Восточном побережье, так что все, кто мог бы рассказать детали с места событий, буквально еще в самолетах. Правда, в Нью-Йорке и Вашингтоне многим есть, что сказать по поводу последних 10 лет в отношениях с Китаем. И список тех капитанов бизнеса и Уолл-Стрит, кто не счел нужным сопровождать Трам…

22 Apr 2026, 10:05 UTC≈14,700 viewsread 12 November 2026

Обсудили Китай с замечательной Ксенией Лученко (@orthozombies). Среди прочего поговорили о том, насколько отсутствие культурной близости между Россией и Китаем (если сравнивать, например, с переплетенностью условных "российской" и "общеевропейской" культур) может стать препятствием для углубления отношений между Москвой и Пекином. Часто слышу этот вопрос, так что вот мои нехитрые мысли на сей счет. https://www.youtu…

15 Apr 2026, 09:52 UTC≈16,000 viewsread 12 November 2026
Forwarded from @carnegiepolitikaPhoto

Габуев: Чем война в Иране выгодна Китаю и как Трамп провоцирует Путина напасть на ЕС Как действия Трампа увеличивают шансы нападения Путина на Европу, чем война в Иране может быть выгодна Китаю, что будет с переговорами США-Иран и что изменится для России, Европы и Украины после поражения Орбана? Читайте (и смотрите) интервью Александра Габуева. Carnegie Politika

14 Apr 2026, 15:02 UTC≈15,600 viewsread 12 November 2026

Нехитрые мысли о подходе Китая к войне на Ближнем Востоке, а также о ряде других сюжетов - для @carnegiepolitika. https://youtu.be/XYSjq5wYoo4?is=mPUm4K6qKB90YSGb

11 Apr 2026, 10:15 UTC≈17,300 viewsread 12 November 2026

Уж не знаю, является ли «четыре» в приговоре свидетельством повышения уровни китаистики в правоохранительных органах РФ и тонким троллингом на тему несчастливого в китайской нумерологии числа 四 (и всех связанных с этим коннотаций, если уж совсем хочется искать смыслов на мрачной стороне). Но вряд ли тут изящный умысел: просто так совпало. Было бы красиво, если бы 8, или даже лучше 888! Но, учитывая множащиеся пригово…

9 Mar 2026, 07:17 UTC≈16,500 viewsread 12 November 2026

Сегодня (9 марта) буду смотреть вот такой стрим на YouTube канале Берлинского центра Карнеги о первой неделе войны в Иране, ее последствиях для России, войны в Украине, энергетических рынков и мира в целом. Обсуждать будут блестящие коллеги Александр Баунов, Сергей Вакуленко и Никита Смагин, а модерировать - замечательная Елизавета Фохт из русской службы "Би-би-си". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZXEFszi92g 9 мар…

27 Feb 2026, 12:02 UTC≈16,300 viewsread 12 November 2026
Forwarded from @carnegiepolitikaPhoto

Габуев: итоги Мюнхенской конференции и как Путин может напасть на НАТО О впечатлениях от Мюнхенской конференции по безопасности и противоречиях США и Европы, а также — о военной игре Die Welt, в которой Россия атаковала восточный фланг НАТО, а сам Александр играл роль Путина. Текст и видео — выбирайте, что вам удобнее — по этой ссылке.

16 Feb 2026, 15:11 UTC≈25,900 viewsread 12 November 2026

Поговорили о Мюнхенской конференции по безопасности, а также о наделавшей шума командной игре газеты Die Welt, в которой Россия захватила и три игровых дня без особого противодействия удерживала кусочек территории НАТО. https://youtu.be/-9M_hbTeLtg

Showing the 12 most recent of 21 posts we hold for @agabuev. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.

Forward network

Republished by

Channels on the register that have forwarded this channel's posts into their own feed.

Built only from forwarded posts we have actually read, on both sides. Coverage is early and deliberately incomplete: a missing link means we have not read the post that would prove it, never that the relationship does not exist. Counts are distinct forwarded posts observed, so they only ever go up as we read more.

Mentions

Named by 3 registered channels — every channel on the register whose own posts have named this one, by its current username or any other username it currently holds, merged from two separately captured readings of the same fact so a namer caught by only one of them is not missed and a namer both caught is not counted twice. A username this channel has since dropped is not matched — that handle may belong to someone else now, and crediting today’s namer to yesterday’s owner would misattribute it.

A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.

Cross-platform identity — Wikidata

A Wikidata item names this Telegram handle as belonging to the entity it describes. This is Wikidata’s claim, not a verification made by this register — nobody here confirmed that the account is genuinely operated by the entity named. Wikidata content is CC0; every fact below is dated to when it was read from Wikidata, not to when the association was first made there.

Q30323495 on Wikidata, read 8 November 2026
LabelAlexander Gabuev
X / Twitter@alexgabuev

Cite this entry

A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 10 November 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.

“Александр Габуев” (@agabuev), 15,449 subscribers as measured 10 November 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/agabuev.

Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.