12 Aug 2026, 12:04 UTC≈1,080 views4 reactionsread 13 August 2026 File
QCP Macro Themes - 12 August 2026
The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the 9–3 vote revealed its deepest split since September 2016. Three dissenters argued that persistent inflation and a resilient labour market warranted earlier action, while reduced forward guidance has made each meeting harder to price.
Markets still assign a 57% chance of a September rate cut, even as the 30-y…
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7 Aug 2026, 10:51 UTC≈2,110 views6 reactionsread 13 August 2026 QCP Market Colour, 7 August 2026
BTC has recovered from around 62.5k at the start of the week to trade back near 64k. The move stands out less for its momentum than for what the market has absorbed: Strategy sold 1,638 BTC for approximately $105m, while reported losses from the Coldcard security incident have risen to around $110m. Neither event resulted in a sustained break lower.
Options markets reflect a similar…
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5 Aug 2026, 12:04 UTC≈2,100 views7 reactionsread 13 August 2026 File
QCP Macro Themes - 5 August 2026
The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the 9–3 vote revealed its deepest split since September 2016. Three dissenters argued that persistent inflation and a resilient labour market warranted earlier action, while reduced forward guidance has made each meeting harder to price.
Markets are still assigning a 57% chance of a September rate cut, even as th…
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3 Aug 2026, 10:24 UTC≈2,340 views13 reactionsread 13 August 2026 QCP Market Colour, 3 August 2026
The US has joined Japan in a rare coordinated effort to support the yen, with the New York Fed purchasing yen on behalf of the US Treasury during Friday’s operation. It was the first coordinated US–Japan FX intervention since 2011 and the first joint operation specifically supporting the yen since 1998.
The timing puts the long end of the Treasury curve firmly in focus. The 30-year …
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31 Jul 2026, 09:59 UTC≈2,470 views3 reactionsread 13 August 2026 QCP Market Colour, 31 July 2026
The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but three dissents in favour of a hike and Chair Warsh’s move away from explicit forward guidance gave the decision a hawkish tone. Markets initially responded by reassessing the path for rates. US equities sold off following the announcement before rebounding as earnings returned to the foreground, led by a sharp rally in Microsoft. BTC also moved l…
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29 Jul 2026, 12:03 UTC≈2,410 views6 reactionsread 13 August 2026 File
QCP Macro Themes - 29 July 2026
Early earnings suggest AI infrastructure momentum remains intact. Celestica reported revenue of $4.70bn, up 62% YoY, and lifted its FY26 guidance to $20.5bn, while Seagate and Teradyne pointed to continued strength in storage, testing and compute demand.
The focus now shifts to Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Their results need to show that AI spending is translating into cloud gr…
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27 Jul 2026, 10:49 UTC≈2,570 views5 reactionsread 13 August 2026 QCP Market Colour, 27 July 2026
Markets enter a pivotal week with rates firmly in focus.
US equities ended Friday mixed as weakness in large-cap technology stocks continued, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased after reaching its highest level since January 2025 earlier in the week. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where markets will focus not only on the policy decision, but also on how the Fed a…
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23 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC≈2,890 views8 reactionsread 13 August 2026 File
QCP Macro Themes - 23 July 2026
Alphabet beat on cloud and search, and still fell 4% after-hours. The problem was not the quarter but the spending behind it, with 2026 AI capex lifted to $195-205bn reviving margin-durability concerns.
That is the tension running through the tape. TSMC delivered Q2 revenue at the top of guidance and ASML raised its 2026 outlook, so the semis momentum is real. But the market is no lo…
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20 Jul 2026, 10:34 UTC≈3,020 views5 reactionsread 13 August 2026 QCP Market Colour, 20 July 2026
Markets are firmly risk-off, with geopolitics adding another layer of pressure. Oil is supported, equities are under strain, and BTC is holding a narrow $63,000 to $65,000 range.
US equities ended the week lower, led by semiconductors as investors grew concerned that hyperscalers could moderate AI infrastructure spending. Capital rotated toward defensives and energy, with Brent above…
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16 Jul 2026, 10:20 UTC≈3,110 views6 reactionsread 13 August 2026 File
QCP Macro Themes - 16 July 2026
The clearest feature of this week's tape is disagreement. In oil, rates, China and crypto funding, the headline points one way while the underlying condition points the other.
Oil is the sharpest example. The peace deal is in crisis and Hormuz traffic has fallen to its lowest since late May, yet underneath that, supply is recovering as Saudi Arabia resets pricing and OPEC+ lifts quot…
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14 Jul 2026, 10:10 UTC≈2,810 views3 reactionsread 13 August 2026 QCP Digital Assets Market Outlook | Q3 2026
Four things that actually matter this quarter:
1. The macro backdrop and a Fed that's harder to read
2. AI versus crypto capital rotation
3. Why the corporate treasury bid now comes with conditions attached, and
4. How we're thinking about positioning across BTC, ETH, SOL and options.
Our deepest read of the quarter: the rates backdrop, why $BTC still trades as a high-be…
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13 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC≈2,730 views9 reactionsread 13 August 2026 QCP Market Colour, 13 July 2026
Crypto enters the week with little conviction as markets brace for a packed calendar of macro and corporate catalysts. Tuesday's US CPI release and Fed Chair Warsh's two-day testimony before Congress are likely to shape expectations for the Fed's policy path, with investors looking for greater clarity on the outlook for rates.
The macro calendar is only half the story. Q2 earnings se…
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