메리츠증권 투자전략팀
풍성한 서비스를 위해 메리츠 투자전략팀 '통합채널'을 가동합니다. 국내외 전략, 경제, 채권, 계량, 시황 자료를 한 눈에 정리할 수 있는 채널입니다. 많은 애용 부탁드립니다.
채권분석 윤여삼 02)6454-4894
경제분석 이승훈 02)6454-4891
투자전략 이수정 02)6454-4893
Created
3 June 2019 — measured — cross-checked against a third-party dataset (ext.tg_channel)
Crypto & trading — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-UD-Q6_K_XL, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 10 August 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 90% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and the other topics.
Observations
These are measurements, not verdicts. Each one below states something we counted, alongside the evidence it was counted from, so you can check it rather than take it. None of them is graded: every observation this register holds is recorded at severity 0, because the precision of the detectors behind them has not been measured yet, and a rating we cannot support is worse than none. Read each as a fact about the data, not as a judgement about the channel. How we measure.
Content that also appears on other registered channels
Posts published here appear in near-verbatim form on 2 other registered channels. This entry also sits inside a group of 7 channels linked by matching posts, directly or through other channels in the group; two members of the group may share no posts with each other. The matching is on the text itself, not on Telegram’s forward marker, so it finds a copy whether or not it was labelled as one.
Matching posts — open both and compare (6 of the pairs behind the counts below)
Channels this entry shares post bodies with, where at least one matching post pair has no forward credit between the two channels, or to a common source, recorded in our data
Text overlap is the Jaccard coefficient over the set of distinct three-word phrases in the two bodies: 1.00 is identical wording, and the threshold for counting a pair at all is 0.70. Candidates are generated by simhash LSH (4 x 16-bit bands, exact Hamming <= 3) verified against the bodies with Jaccard over the SET of distinct 3-word shingles. Published first counts which side of each matching pair carries the earlier timestamp — in this corpus, which is the limitation directly below.
What this cannot establish
MEASURED, DOMINANT ERROR SOURCE: a post ingested before 2026-08-06 may have carried a forward header that was not recorded. A 45-pair hand-check against live t.me pages found 14 (31%) where the live page shows a forward header naming the other channel and the database has none, plus 4 more (9%) naming a third party. The text match itself was wrong 0 times out of 45. Read attribution_capture.items_in_trusted_window before treating the unattributed count as a claim.
Telegram lets a channel forward a post with a header naming the source, and we only began reliably recording that header on 2026-08-06. 45 of the 45 matches recorded here fall after that date and carried no header when we read them. The rest predate reliable capture and are not evidence either way.
“Published first” means first in this corpus. We hold 74 comparable posts for this entry, running 27 July 2026 to 9 November 2026. A channel we have read one page deep will look younger than a neighbour we have read in full, and the order would flip with no change in the underlying facts.
The detector’s own notes on this observation, as it recorded them. Names in this_style are fields of the underlying evidence record, which the plain-English paragraphs above read out for this entry.
Verbatim republication has three causes and the text separates only two: a clone/mirror, unattributed copy-paste, or BOTH channels copying a common third source that neither attributes. The spread filter (content held by at most 8 channels) reduces the third and does not remove it.
'Earliest' means earliest IN THIS CORPUS. A channel ingested one page deep will look younger than a neighbour ingested in full; corpus_coverage above is there to be checked before the direction is believed.
shared_verified_est extrapolates the sampled pass rate over the full narrow match count; sampled/passed are the numbers actually measured.
Absence of a forward header is not proof of intent: Telegram lets a channel disable forward attribution, and a credit written in the body is not parsed as attribution here (mention_edge_either_way above is the closest available signal).
Of the group of 7 channels, the one whose matching posts we hold earliest is @Meritz_strategy — which is this entry. That is a statement about our reading window, not a claim of authorship.
Recorded under the keys clone_copy · clone_source, last confirmed 11 November 2026. An observation that a later pass no longer finds is cleared, and a cleared observation is removed from this page rather than being shown struck through — we do not keep publishing a claim we have withdrawn. Dispute an observation.
Channels linked by matching posts
This channel is in a group of 7 registered channels linked by matching posts, directly or through other channels in the group. This channel may share no posts with some of the channels listed below, and listed channels may share none with each other. Links are found by comparing text fingerprints across every channel on the register.
Which channel, if either, published first is deliberately not shown in this list. “First” could only mean first in our own crawl, which depends on how deep we happened to reach into each channel’s history, not on when the content was actually first posted. Our one hand-check read 45 of the highest-confidence flagged pairs against the live Telegram pages. In 18 of them the live page showed a “Forwarded from” credit that our database had no record of, so reading that pair as an unattributed copy was wrong; the check did not measure who published first. This list is ordered by subscriber count, the same as every other listing on this site, never by which channel we think came first. Near-verbatim matching has several ordinary explanations besides copying — a channel mirroring itself, an unattributed repost, or two channels independently repeating the same wire story — and this measurement cannot tell those apart. How this is measured.
57 measurements spanning 96 days, net +60. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 12,014–12,100 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded, most recent 20 of 57
Measured (UTC)
Subscribers
Change
10 Nov 2026, 19:45
12,084
-6
9 Nov 2026, 09:14
12,090
+7
5 Nov 2026, 17:16
12,083
-4
4 Nov 2026, 14:36
12,087
-2
3 Nov 2026, 16:56
12,089
+7
1 Nov 2026, 17:17
12,082
-1
31 Oct 2026, 18:10
12,083
-2
29 Oct 2026, 17:17
12,085
+2
28 Oct 2026, 16:37
12,083
-5
27 Oct 2026, 17:21
12,088
+6
26 Oct 2026, 19:41
12,082
-1
25 Oct 2026, 21:01
12,083
+1
24 Oct 2026, 20:25
12,082
-2
23 Oct 2026, 23:20
12,084
-5
23 Oct 2026, 01:27
12,089
+2
21 Oct 2026, 23:57
12,087
-2
19 Oct 2026, 18:20
12,089
+2
18 Oct 2026, 17:50
12,087
+2
17 Oct 2026, 20:17
12,085
-1
16 Oct 2026, 17:07
12,086
first reading
Engagement
76 posts held, back to 27 July 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 63 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
ERR · 30 days
12.4%
avg views ÷ 12,084 subscribers
Avg views / post
1,500
27 posts measured
Reaction rate
—
this channel exposes no reaction counts
Posts in window
27
of 76 held
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.
What these figures were computed from
Window
Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 9 November 2026
Posts held
76 (27 July 2026 – 9 November 2026)
Views total
40,371
Reactions total
—
Forwards / comments
not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated
Readings taken
10 Nov 2026, 20:10 UTC
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
What this channel posts
Photos
≈1,530
Links
≈4,750
Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 10 November 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. A count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints these counters in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈142,000 means somewhere between 141,500 and 142,499.
Recent posts
Telegram’s own ‘edited’ marker: 4 of 27 posts held from the last 30 days (14.8%) carried it when this register last read them. The marker says a post was changed after publishing, not what it said before — this register holds the earlier wording only where an edit fell between two of its own reads (see the edit ledger and how it is measured).
📮[MERITZ Strategy Daily 전략공감2.0] 2026.11.10(화)
[투자전략 이상현] 2027 Outlook #1_2 (해설판): Transition: 업종 및 스타일 전략
- 2026년부터 코스피 이익 레벨이 바뀌었고, 그 이익이 현금(FCF)으로 남는 시장이 됨. 이익, 환원, 현금흐름, 저평가 팩터 부각
- 최선호 업종은 반도체·유틸리티. 차선호 업종은 건설/건축·운송·화학. WI26 업종 중 ① 이익(메리츠-컨센), ② FCF 기여, ③ FCF 상향 가속, ④ 배당 증가 (+2028E 조정 PBR 1배 미만) 조건 충족 업종
- 스타일 전략은 이익 상향과 환원 여력에 방점. '이익이 오르면서 배당을 늘리고도 현금이 남는 기업' 15개 종목 선정
https://tinyurl.com/5hecpb9k
[채권전략 …
📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈]
데이터 경제脈_2026.11.9(월)
<미국 10월 고용: 흠잡을 게 별로 없다>
- NFP +16.5만, 실업률 4.1%, 시간당 임금 0.4% MoM 등 고용지표 서프라이즈
- 구인/실업자 배율 1.06배 = 노동시장 균형이라는 연준 판단 유지될 것
- 임금의 경우 건설업 특수직 영향이 크며, 전반적으로는 하향 안정화 추세 우위
- 대체로 흠잡을 것 없는 노동시장; 연준은 물가에 신경 쓰며 12월에 인상할 전망
(자료) https://tinyurl.com/y9uu8z98
* 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다.
* 메리츠 투자전략팀 통합 채널 링크 : https://t.me/Merit…
📮[메리츠증권 신흥국 투자전략 최설화]
최설화의 Real China, 2026.11.9(월)
<미국의 블루웨이브와 중국 테크>
- 블루웨이브로 미국 AI 투자가 둔화되면 중국 테크는 단기적으로 격차를 좁힐 시간을 확보
- 다만 대중국 통제가 입법으로 제도화되고, 중국의 AI 하드웨어 수출에도 부담
- 중기적으로 악재가 더 커서 기술주 비중을 점검하고 금융·소비재로 분산 필요
(보고서) https://tinyurl.com/8w9kz5nt
* 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다.
📮 [메리츠증권 채권분석 윤여삼]
The Bond Weekly: 위험에 대한 위험, 결국 비용 문제 2026.11.9(월)
- 미국 중간선거는 트리거, 결국 막대한 금융&인프라 비용에 대한 고민
- 한국 경제, 반도체 주가가 아닌 가격이 중요해도 신경이 쓰이는 상황
(자료) https://tinyurl.com/4y66h64a
*동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다.
*메리츠 채권전략 개별 텔래그램 링크: https://t.me/bondasset
📮 [메리츠증권 리서치센터]
2026.11.5
미국 중간선거 매크로/섹터 코멘트
(자료) https://tinyurl.com/msapufku
미국 중간선거 결과에 대한 당사 매크로·섹터 담당 애널리스트들의 종합 코멘트를 전해드립니다.
주식·채권·외환시장과 AI를 비롯한 각 섹터별 의견을 한눈에 살펴보실 수 있도록 정리했습니다.
시장 변동성이 커지면서 걱정이 많으실 것으로 생각됩니다. 자료가 투자 방향을 잡으시는 데 도움이 되기를 바랍니다.
*동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다.
📮[MERITZ Strategy Daily 전략공감2.0] 2026.11.5(목)
[투자전략 황수욱] 2027 Outlook #1 (해설판): Transition
- 실물시장의 자본수요 확대에서 비롯된 높은 자본 가격(금리), 저금리 시대보다 높은 투자 난이도
- AI 투자는 충분히 유지 가능. 다만 올해 하반기 주식시장은 4년간 시장을 주도했던 인프라의 현금흐름에 주목, 인프라 다음 AI 산출물(생산)을 기다리며 late cycle 우려
- AI 투자-생산 과도기 속 2027년은 AI 생산성의 가시화 중요. AI 인프라 다음 레이어에 초점
- 한국은 AI 인프라 익스포저가 높지만, late cycle에서 주도팩터가 저평가, 현금흐름이라는 점에서 내년 상반기 저평가 회복 측면에서 매력적. 내년말 KOSPI target 8,700pt …
📮 [메리츠증권 이진아] 2026.11.04(수)
[2027 Outlook 5] ESG: Show Me the Money
"ESG, 이제 기업가치로 증명할 시간"
ESG라는 이름을 붙인 투자에 대한 시장의 시선은 예전보다 까다로워졌습니다. 미국 지속가능 펀드는 14분기 연속 순유출 후 올해 2분기 순유입으로 돌아섰지만, 패시브와 액티브의 흐름은 엇갈립니다. 한편 기관투자자들은 기존 포트폴리오에 지속가능성 요소를 더 폭넓게 반영하고 있습니다. ESG의 중요성을 판단하는 기준이 기업의 비용과 현금흐름, 투자성과로 구체화되는 모습입니다.
이번 전망의 제목을 'Show Me the Money'로 정한 이유도 여기에 있습니다. 2027년에는 CBAM 인증서 구매와 첫 연례 정산, 개정 상법이 적용되는 정기주총, 산업안전 과징금 시행 등 주요 일…
📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈]
데이터 경제脈_2026.11.3(화)
<Macro Preview와 Core View (2026년 11월)>
- 미 국채금리보다는 신용 스프레드 확대 및 프랑스 재정문제 우려
- 중간선거나 11월 통화정책 회의의 시장 영향은 당장 크지 않을 수 있음
- 11월 중 원화는 1,310~1,370원에서 등락할 전망: 수출 호조 vs 증권투자 순유출
(자료) https://tinyurl.com/4fk9sysf
* 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다.
* 메리츠 투자전략팀 통합 채널 링크 : https://t.me/Meritz_strategy
📮 [메리츠증권 신흥국 투자전략 최설화] 2026.11.3(화)
[2027 Outlook 4] 신흥국 투자전략: isolation
"고립의 시대, 선택과 집중"
신흥국이라는 이름이 더 이상 하나의 방향을 가리키지 않는 것 같습니다. 2026년 신흥국 시장은 고유가와 AI라는 두 갈래 길에서 명암이 뚜렷하게 갈렸습니다. AI 공급망에 올라탄 대만과 한국은 고유가의 부담을 넉넉히 상쇄한 반면, 에너지 수입국인 인도와 인도네시아는 자금 유출과 통화 약세 속에 긴 조정을 지나왔습니다. 모든 신흥국이 함께 오르고 함께 내리던 시대는 지나고, 국가와 기업마다 각자의 길을 걷는 '고립(Isolation)'의 시대가 시작되었습니다.
당장의 걱정은 이 균열이 더 깊어질지 여부일 겁니다. 하이퍼스케일러의 역대급 채권 발행은 신흥국의 조달비용을 끌어올리고…
📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈]
2026.11.3(화)
[2027 Outlook 3] 경제분석: Asymmetry
(요약본) https://tinyurl.com/4jkny2tt
글로벌 금융위기 이후 제조업과 교역 영향이 축소되면서 세계 경제의 동조화는 계속 약해져 왔습니다. 2027년에 주요국 경기는 일제히 둔화되겠지만, 이는 결과물일 뿐이고, 각자의 사정에 따른 비대칭적 행태가 더욱 뚜렷해질 것으로 예상합니다.
AI 생태계와 인프라 투자 지속 가능성에 대한 의구심이 많은 것이 사실입니다. 하지만 아직은 GPU 임대사업자들의 비용 가중보다는 수익성 개선세가 연장될 가능성이 크다는 점에서 ‘27년 투자 확장 지속에 무게를 둡니다. 미국은 투자 중심 2.2%, 한국은 수출 중심 3.1% 성장세를 시현할 것입니다. 반면 유럽은 AI로부터의 …
📮 [메리츠증권 채권전략 윤여삼] 2026.11.2(월)
[2027 Outlook 2] 채권전략
"이번에도 다르지 않다"
투자는 늘 어렵습니다. 투자를 위해 미래를 예측하는 전망 또한 마찬가지입니다. 인류의 역사를 통해 많은 혁신과 발전의 과정을 거쳐왔습니다. 그렇기에 '이번에는 다르다'라는 말이 옳게 보일 수 있습니다. 인류의 발전사를 보면 가장 상식같은 '이번에는 다르다'가 아이러니하게도 금융시장에서는 가장 비싼 한문장이라고 여겨집니다.
이는 인간이 거치는 많은 시행착오와 오해 속에서 순환적인 역사론 또한 존재하기 때문입니다. 인간이 가진 투자의 본성인 '탐욕과 공포'는 거품과 붕괴를 유발합니다. 우리는 이번 AI 포함 4번의 산업혁명과 많은 신제품에 열광하다가 언제 그랬냐는 듯 적응하고, 새로운 관심사로 고개를 돌려오곤 했습니다.…
📮 [메리츠증권 황수욱, 이상현] 2026.11.02(월)
[2027 Outlook 1] 투자전략: Transition
"'과도기, 다음 단계로의 이행"
세상이 과도기에 있는 것 같습니다. 경제는 실물이 막대한 자본을 흡수해 돈의 가격(금리)이 구조적으로 높아지는 시기를 통과 중입니다. 익숙했던 유동성 시대(저축의 시대)보다 높아질 투자 난이도를 받아들여야 하며, 모든 자산이 동시에 오르던 시대와 달리 신중한 투자 판단이 필요해질 것입니다.
당장 눈앞의 걱정은 기존 AI 인프라 투자 사이클 지속 여부일겁니다. 판단 기준은 1) 실물의 초과수요 지속, 2) 금융 부채 감당 여력인데요. 바텀-업 관점에서 AI 수요-공급 논리로 형성된 GPU 임대료 기반의 수익성과 조달 금리를 분석해보면, AI 투자 사이클은 충분히 유지 가능하다는 판단입니…
Showing the 12 most recent of 76 posts we hold for @Meritz_strategy. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Posts edited after publishing
@Meritz_strategy edited 1 post after it first published — the same permalink now carries different wording than the one this register originally read, caught because our own crawl held a copy of the earlier text.
An edit is not deception. Typo fixes, price updates and corrections look exactly like this too — this register can tell you the wording changed and when, not why. How this is measured.
First edit seen
9 November 2026
Most recent edit
9 November 2026
Forward network
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Mentions
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Named by
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Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 10 November 2026 — this
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“메리츠증권 투자전략팀” (@Meritz_strategy), 12,084 subscribers as measured 10 November 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/Meritz_strategy.
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