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Channel

[메리츠 Macro 이승훈]

@stephenlee_meritz

On this record: Topic · Observations · Also posting the same content · Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Posts · Citations · Cite this entry

4,733subscribers

-3 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026

Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 3,162–10,000.

Register entry

Telegram ID-1001378991495
TypeChannel
Username@stephenlee_meritz
Description메리츠 매크로 이승훈(경제분석 총괄) Economist 입니다. 주요국 매크로와 가격변수에 대한 저희 보고서를 공유하는 채널입니다. 업무에 도움되시기 바랍니다.
Created1 January 2018measured — cross-checked against a third-party dataset (ext.tg_channel)
First recorded7 August 2026
Last confirmed live11 August 2026
Measurements held3
Confirmed unchanged1 time, most recently 11 August 2026
On Telegramt.me/stephenlee_meritz

Topic

Other / unclassifiable — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-UD-Q6_K_XL, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 11 August 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 84% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and why it has no browse page of its own yet.

Observations

These are measurements, not verdicts. Each one below states something we counted, alongside the evidence it was counted from, so you can check it rather than take it. None of them is graded: every observation this register holds is recorded at severity 0, because the precision of the detectors behind them has not been measured yet, and a rating we cannot support is worse than none. Read each as a fact about the data, not as a judgement about the channel. How we measure.

Content that also appears on other registered channels

Posts published here appear word for word on 1 other registered channel. The matching is on the text itself, not on Telegram’s forward marker, so it finds a copy whether or not it was labelled as one.

Matching posts — open both and compare (5 of the pairs behind the counts below)
Posted firstThenOverlapGap
@Meritz_strategy/616729 Jul 2026, 22:43 UTC@stephenlee_meritz/918 · this entry29 Jul 2026, 22:44 UTC1.00under a minute
@Meritz_strategy/617531 Jul 2026, 08:01 UTC@stephenlee_meritz/919 · this entry31 Jul 2026, 08:01 UTC1.00under a minute
@Meritz_strategy/61762 Aug 2026, 22:39 UTC@stephenlee_meritz/920 · this entry2 Aug 2026, 22:40 UTC1.00under a minute
@Meritz_strategy/61772 Aug 2026, 22:46 UTC@stephenlee_meritz/921 · this entry2 Aug 2026, 22:46 UTC1.00under a minute
@Meritz_strategy/61834 Aug 2026, 07:26 UTC@stephenlee_meritz/922 · this entry4 Aug 2026, 07:26 UTC1.00under a minute
Every channel this entry shares post bodies with
ChannelMatching postsText overlapTypical gapPublished first
@Meritz_strategy5 (5/5 hand-verifiable sample passed)1.00under a minute@Meritz_strategy (50)

Text overlap is the Jaccard coefficient over the set of distinct three-word phrases in the two bodies: 1.00 is identical wording, and the threshold for counting a pair at all is 0.70. Candidates are generated by simhash LSH (4 x 16-bit bands, exact Hamming <= 3) verified against the bodies with Jaccard over the SET of distinct 3-word shingles. Published first counts which side of each matching pair carries the earlier timestamp — in this corpus, which is the limitation directly below.

What this cannot establish

MEASURED, DOMINANT ERROR SOURCE: a post ingested before 2026-08-06 may have carried a forward header that was not recorded. A 45-pair hand-check against live t.me pages found 14 (31%) where the live page shows a forward header naming the other channel and the database has none, plus 4 more (9%) naming a third party. The text match itself was wrong 0 times out of 45. Read attribution_capture.items_in_trusted_window before treating the unattributed count as a claim.

Telegram lets a channel forward a post with a header naming the source, and we only began reliably recording that header on 2026-08-06. None of the 5 matches recorded here fall after that date, so for this entry we cannot say whether any of them carried a credit. The duplication is measured; the absence of attribution is not.

“Published first” means first in this corpus. We hold 18 comparable posts for this entry, running 25 May 2026 to 4 August 2026. A channel we have read one page deep will look younger than a neighbour we have read in full, and the order would flip with no change in the underlying facts.

The detector’s own notes on this observation, as it recorded them. Names in this_style are fields of the underlying evidence record, which the plain-English paragraphs above read out for this entry.

  • Verbatim republication has three causes and the text separates only two: a clone/mirror, unattributed copy-paste, or BOTH channels copying a common third source that neither attributes. The spread filter (content held by at most 8 channels) reduces the third and does not remove it.
  • 'Earliest' means earliest IN THIS CORPUS. A channel ingested one page deep will look younger than a neighbour ingested in full; corpus_coverage above is there to be checked before the direction is believed.
  • shared_verified_est extrapolates the sampled pass rate over the full narrow match count; sampled/passed are the numbers actually measured.
  • Absence of a forward header is not proof of intent: Telegram lets a channel disable forward attribution, and a credit written in the body is not parsed as attribution here (mention_edge_either_way above is the closest available signal).

Across the whole group of 2, the earliest publisher we hold is @Meritz_strategy. That is a statement about our reading window, not a claim of authorship.

Recorded under the key clone_copy, last confirmed 7 August 2026. An observation that a later pass no longer finds is cleared, and a cleared observation is removed from this page rather than being shown struck through — we do not keep publishing a claim we have withdrawn. Dispute an observation.

Also posting the same content

This channel’s posts match, word for word or near enough, posts on 1 other registered channel, found by comparing text fingerprints across every channel on the register. That matching has been checked by hand against the live Telegram pages and found reliable — 0 wrong of 45 pairs re-read.

Which channel, if either, published first is deliberately not shown. The same hand-check found that reading wrong 18 of 45 times — 60%, no better than a coin flip — because it depends on how deep our own crawl happened to reach into each channel’s history, not on when the content was actually first posted. This list is ordered by subscriber count, the same as every other listing on this site, never by which channel we think came first. Word-for-word matching has several ordinary explanations besides copying — a channel mirroring itself, an unattributed repost, or two channels independently repeating the same wire story — and this measurement cannot tell those apart. How this is measured.

Growth

4,7334,7374,7357 August 2026 — 4,736 subscribers8 August 2026 — 4,737 subscribers11 August 2026 — 4,733 subscribers7 August 202611 August 2026
3 measurements spanning 4 days, net -3. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 4,732–4,738 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded
Measured (UTC)SubscribersChange
11 Aug 2026, 22:024,733-4
8 Aug 2026, 16:244,737+1
7 Aug 2026, 20:014,736first reading

Engagement

22 posts held, back to 25 May 2026the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 5 pagesof Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.

ERR · 30 days
10.1%
avg views ÷ 4,733 subscribers
Avg views / post
477
10 posts measured
Reaction rate
this channel exposes no reaction counts
Posts in window
10
of 22 held

ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.

ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views— note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.

What these figures were computed from
WindowRolling 30 days · latest post in window 10 August 2026
Posts held22 (25 May 202610 August 2026)
Views total4,769
Reactions total
Forwards / commentsnot exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated
Readings taken12 Aug 2026, 05:26 UTC

Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.

Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.

Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.

What this channel posts

Photos
12
Links
869

Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 12 August 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. Below Telegram’s rounding threshold, so these counts are exact.

Recent posts

10 Aug 2026, 22:50 UTC243 viewsread 12 August 2026

📮 [MERITZ Strategy Daily 전략공감2.0] 2026.8.11(화) [경제분석 이승훈] Strategy Idea: 미-일 외환시장 공조 개입의 여러 논점들 - 15년 만의 미-일 환시 공조개입, 28년 만의 엔화 매수 공조 개입이 명문화됨 - 미 국채금리 상승 압력을 제어하며 개입: Sell EUR-Buy JPY, 일본의 보유외환 소진도 방어 - 4가지 추가 논점: 1) 엔 캐리의 대규모 청산 없었고, 미국 계산에서는 있어서도 안됨, 2) 공조 개입으로 엔화 추세적 강세 전환 어려움, 3) 엔 약세/JGB 상승세 완화는 국내 재정건전성 문제가 선결되어야 할 것, 4) 원화 입장에서는 향후 엔화 강세 추가 진전 여부가 중요 (자료) https://tinyurl.com/3pfnymh7 [투자전략 RA 염승준] 오늘의 차

9 Aug 2026, 22:48 UTC301 viewsread 12 August 2026

📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈] 데이터 경제脈_2026.8.10(월) <미국 7월 고용: B2C 고용여건 악화 징후 뚜렷> - 민간고용 내에서 레저/여가(-4만), 도소매(-1.5만) 등 B2C 고용여건 악화 뚜렷 - 저임노동력 이탈에도 임금상승률 3.2% YoY로 부진: 서비스 부문 협상력 약화 - 실업률 하락도 이민자 중심 경제활동인구 급감에서 비롯된 결과: 좋게 보기 어려움 - 하반기 소비/고용 악순환 가능성 본격화 우려: 연준 연내 인상 어려울 것 (자료) https://tinyurl.com/yc6u8k5p * 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. * 메리츠 투자전략팀 통합 채널 링크 : https://t.me/

4 Aug 2026, 10:12 UTC560 viewsread 12 August 2026

https://youtu.be/hQqyLpA-W7o?si=7SEB_bI-OM4nkZ_a 본 리포트 관련 메리츠원 유투브 동영상입니다.

4 Aug 2026, 07:26 UTC475 viewsread 12 August 2026

📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈] 데이터 경제脈_2026.8.4(화) <한국 7월 CPI: 계절적 인플레 ≠ 연속인상 조건> - 한국 7월 소비자물가는 전월대비 -0.19% 하락, 전년대비 2.78% 상승 - 7월 물가 2%대 진입보다는 근원물가 및 서비스 물가 상승에 금융시장 이목 집중 - 서비스 물가상승 주범은 여름 성수기 휴가철 관련한 것들이기에 계절적/일시적 - 9월까지는 기저효과, 명절로 3%대 물가. 이후 2%대 중반으로 안정화될 것 - 수요 요인이지만 계절적 물가상승은 한은의 연속 인상 조건과는 거리가 있음 (자료) https://tinyurl.com/mwr2zzv8 * 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다.

2 Aug 2026, 22:46 UTC444 viewsread 12 August 2026

📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈] Policy 경제脈_2026.8.3(월) <7월 BOJ: 금리 정상화의 시급성 강조> - 동결 8명, 인상 1명 voting으로 콜금리 목표 1.00%에서 동결 - 일본은행의 물가 상방 위험 적시와 우에다 총재의 금리인상 가속화 발언: Hawkish - 당사는 다음 BOJ 인상 시점 전망을 12월에서 10월로 변경 - JPY는 미-일 공조 개입 이후 157엔까지 하락. 약달러 환경 속 추가 강세 예상 (자료) https://tinyurl.com/mtnvkbry * 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. * 메리츠 투자전략팀 통합 채널 링크 : https://t.me/Meritz_strate

2 Aug 2026, 22:40 UTC405 viewsread 12 August 2026

📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈] 데이터 경제脈_2026.8.3(월) <한국 7월 수출: 회복의 확산 진행 중> - 한국 7월 수출 +63%, 일평균 +70%, 11개월 연속 서프라이즈 - 반도체와 컴퓨터가 여전히 쌍두마차. 이 외 두 자리 수 증가율 시현한 품목 다수 - 수출이 반도체 단가상승에만 의존하지 않고 물량 증가를 동반하는 바람직한 모습 - 2026~27년 수출 전망 57%와 25% 유지. 한국 GDP 측면에서도 긍정적 흐름 (자료) https://tinyurl.com/3z2hjkwm * 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. * 메리츠 투자전략팀 통합 채널 링크 : https://t.me/Meritz_strat

31 Jul 2026, 08:01 UTC455 viewsread 12 August 2026

📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈] 데이터 경제脈_2026.7.31(금) <Macro Preview와 Core View (2026년 8월)> - 중동 불확실성 다시 고조되며 유가 급등락 중. 중앙은행은 대응보다 관망 선택 - 유가 급등-물가압력 부여가 아닌 이상, 선물시장에 반영된 긴축 강도는 다소 과도 - 한국은행의 경우도 원화가 안정되고 7월 물가 2% 진입한다면 인상보다 동결 결정 - 한국 7월 수출은 일평균 기준 60% 넘을 것. 상장기업 실적 의심 단계 아님 (자료) https://tinyurl.com/4pxea73k * 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. * 메리츠 투자전략팀 통합 채널 링크 : https://

29 Jul 2026, 22:44 UTC498 viewsread 12 August 2026

📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈] Policy 경제脈_2026.7.30(목) <7월 FOMC: T/F가 일을 다 할 때까지 동결> - 7월 FOMC 금리동결(3.50~3.75%). 인상 소수의견 3명 - 금리인상 임박 증거가 부재했고, 모든 가능성을 열어두며 우려대비 dovish - 기조적 인플레 측정과 효과적 통화정책 수단 고민 중: T/F 임무완료까지 동결 우세 - 위험 요인: 1) 고유가 장기화(연내 인상), 2) 소비/고용 취약성 급부상(연내 인하) (자료) https://tinyurl.com/2r76w2fx * 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. * 메리츠 투자전략팀 통합 채널 링크 : https://t.me/

23 Jul 2026, 05:49 UTC715 viewsread 12 August 2026

📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈] 데이터 경제脈_2026.7.23(목) <한국 2Q GDP: ‘26년 성장률 전망 3.4%로 상향> - 한국 2Q26 GDP는 0.6% QoQ/3.7% YoY 성장하며 시장 예상을 상회 - 2026~27년 한국 GDP성장률 전망 3.4%와 2.5%로 상향 (기존 2.9%와 2.2%) - 수출과 설비투자 중심의 상향 조정. ‘27년 초까지 기준금리 3.25%로 인상 - 원화는 완만한 강세 압력 계속 받을 것: ‘26년 말 1,420원 전망 유지 (자료) https://tinyurl.com/mpfds7da * 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. * 메리츠 투자전략팀 통합 채널 링크 : htt

20 Jul 2026, 23:39 UTC673 viewsread 12 August 2026

📮[MERITZ Strategy Daily 전략공감2.0] 2026.7.21(화) [경제분석 이승훈] Strategy Idea: 한국 2Q GDP 프리뷰 및 한은 연속 인상 가능성 점검 - 당사는 한국 2Q26 실질 GDP가 0.7% QoQ / 3.8% YoY 성장할 것으로 예상 - 2분기 명목 GDP가 17%대에 달하는 반면, 하반기 소비자물가는 하향 안정화 예상 - 과거 연속 인상은 시급히 물가/금융안정 도모해야 할 때 단행. 지금은 과거 사례와 거리가 있음 (자료) https://tinyurl.com/nc22zz38 [선진국 투자전략 RA 박보경] 오늘의 차트: 높아진 실적 허들: 서프라이즈보다 중요한 것 [조선/기계/제약/바이오 RA 김현비] 칼럼의 재해석: AbbVie-Apogee Therapeutics 딜로 보는 I&I

3 Jul 2026, 08:11 UTC873 viewsread 12 August 2026

📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈] 데이터 경제脈_2026.7.3(금) <미국 6월 고용: 경제활동참가율 하락의 퍼즐> - 취업자 증가폭 축소는 레저/여가 고용감소 때문: 생각보다 미약한 월드컵 특수 - 계절조정 실업률 추가 하락은 25~34세 경제활동참가율 급락 때문 - 하반기 재량소비 축소가 저학력, 저숙련, Entry level 노동력 이탈 지속시킬 소지 - 7월 FOMC는 dovish할 것. 향후 노동시장/경기 둔화로 연준 연내 인상 어려울 것 (자료) https://tinyurl.com/5heddcae * 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. * 메리츠 투자전략팀 통합 채널 링크 : https://t.me/Meri

1 Jul 2026, 22:57 UTC775 viewsread 12 August 2026

📮[메리츠증권 경제분석 이승훈] 데이터 경제脈_2026.7.2(목) <한국 6월 수출: 사실은 수출 회복의 확산이다> - 한국 6월 수출 +71%, 일평균 +60%, 10개월 연속 서프라이즈 - 반도체 +200%, 컴퓨터 +309%, 반도체/컴퓨터/선박 제외 +20% - 수출 회복의 확산으로 평가: ‘26~27E 수출전망 +57.1%, +24.5%로 추가 상향 - 당사 한국 경제전망의 명백한 upside risk 발생 (자료) https://tinyurl.com/4z8h6283 * 동 자료는 Compliance 규정을 준수하여 사전 공표된 자료이며, 고객의 증권 투자 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재의 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. * 메리츠 투자전략팀 통합 채널 링크 : https://t.me/Meritz_strategy

Showing the 12 most recent of 22 posts we hold for @stephenlee_meritz. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.

Forward network

Republishes

Channels on the register whose posts this channel has forwarded.

Built only from forwarded posts we have actually read, on both sides. Coverage is early and deliberately incomplete: a missing link means we have not read the post that would prove it, never that the relationship does not exist. Counts are distinct forwarded posts observed, so they only ever go up as we read more.

Mentions

Names

Channels on the register whose handles appear in this channel's posts.

A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.

Cite this entry

A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 11 August 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.

“[메리츠 Macro 이승훈]” (@stephenlee_meritz), 4,733 subscribers as measured 11 August 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/stephenlee_meritz.

Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.