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Channel

تحلیل به جای تخیل - محمد نوربخش

@tahlilbezabansade

On this record: Topic · Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Reactions · Posts · Posts recorded as deleted · Citations · Telegram's recommendations · Cite this entry

11,948subscribers

+407 since we began measuring on 6 August 2026

Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 10,000–31,623.

Register entry

Telegram ID-1001009155688
TypeChannel
Username@tahlilbezabansade
Descriptionمردم هرگز حرفها و نصایح شما را قبول نمی‌کنند مگر آنکه وکیل مدافع یا پزشک باشید ... و آنها برای شنیدن حرفها شما پول خرج کرده باشند .
CreatedBetween 1 September 2015 and 31 December 2015 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated.
First recorded6 August 2026
Last confirmed live8 November 2026
Measurements held60
Confirmed unchanged1 time, most recently 8 November 2026
On Telegramt.me/tahlilbezabansade

Topic

Education — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 11 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 66% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and the other topics.

Growth

11,54011,96311,751.56 August 2026 — 11,541 subscribers6 August 2026 — 11,540 subscribers7 August 2026 — 11,559 subscribers8 August 2026 — 11,556 subscribers9 August 2026 — 11,558 subscribers10 August 2026 — 11,581 subscribers11 August 2026 — 11,580 subscribers12 August 2026 — 11,573 subscribers13 August 2026 — 11,568 subscribers15 August 2026 — 11,570 subscribers16 August 2026 — 11,575 subscribers18 August 2026 — 11,583 subscribers18 August 2026 — 11,586 subscribers20 August 2026 — 11,592 subscribers22 August 2026 — 11,591 subscribers23 August 2026 — 11,593 subscribers25 August 2026 — 11,600 subscribers26 August 2026 — 11,603 subscribers27 August 2026 — 11,599 subscribers28 August 2026 — 11,598 subscribers29 August 2026 — 11,603 subscribers30 August 2026 — 11,608 subscribers31 August 2026 — 11,602 subscribers1 September 2026 — 11,604 subscribers2 September 2026 — 11,606 subscribers3 September 2026 — 11,609 subscribers5 September 2026 — 11,619 subscribers8 September 2026 — 11,774 subscribers11 September 2026 — 11,833 subscribers13 September 2026 — 11,856 subscribers14 September 2026 — 11,872 subscribers16 September 2026 — 11,895 subscribers19 September 2026 — 11,919 subscribers25 September 2026 — 11,923 subscribers4 October 2026 — 11,925 subscribers8 October 2026 — 11,915 subscribers12 October 2026 — 11,912 subscribers14 October 2026 — 11,928 subscribers15 October 2026 — 11,930 subscribers16 October 2026 — 11,932 subscribers17 October 2026 — 11,934 subscribers18 October 2026 — 11,932 subscribers19 October 2026 — 11,925 subscribers20 October 2026 — 11,921 subscribers21 October 2026 — 11,923 subscribers22 October 2026 — 11,922 subscribers24 October 2026 — 11,924 subscribers25 October 2026 — 11,921 subscribers26 October 2026 — 11,927 subscribers29 October 2026 — 11,933 subscribers30 October 2026 — 11,939 subscribers31 October 2026 — 11,951 subscribers1 November 2026 — 11,963 subscribers2 November 2026 — 11,957 subscribers3 November 2026 — 11,958 subscribers3 November 2026 — 11,955 subscribers5 November 2026 — 11,953 subscribers6 November 2026 — 11,951 subscribers7 November 2026 — 11,950 subscribers8 November 2026 — 11,948 subscribers11,9486 August 20268 November 2026
60 measurements spanning 94 days, net +407. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 11,477–12,026 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded, most recent 20 of 60
Measured (UTC)SubscribersChange
8 Nov 2026, 15:1611,948-2
7 Nov 2026, 08:4711,950-1
6 Nov 2026, 05:4111,951-2
5 Nov 2026, 03:0111,953-2
3 Nov 2026, 23:5011,955-3
3 Nov 2026, 03:0611,958+1
2 Nov 2026, 06:2911,957-6
1 Nov 2026, 04:5911,963+12
31 Oct 2026, 05:1911,951+12
30 Oct 2026, 03:0711,939+6
29 Oct 2026, 02:2911,933+6
26 Oct 2026, 23:4911,927+6
25 Oct 2026, 23:0611,921-3
24 Oct 2026, 19:5711,924+2
22 Oct 2026, 19:1811,922-1
21 Oct 2026, 15:3411,923+2
20 Oct 2026, 12:0911,921-4
19 Oct 2026, 10:3811,925-7
18 Oct 2026, 12:4011,932-2
17 Oct 2026, 14:0911,934first reading

Engagement

60 posts held, back to 16 July 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 59 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.

ERR · 30 days
37.2%
avg views ÷ 11,948 subscribers
Avg views / post
4,450
20 posts measured
Reaction rate
2.81%
reactions ÷ views · ER floor
Posts in window
20
of 60 held

ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.

ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.

What these figures were computed from
WindowRolling 30 days · latest post in window 1 November 2026
Posts held60 (16 July 2026 – 1 November 2026)
Views total89,000
Reactions total2,500
Forwards / commentsnot exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated
Readings taken8 Nov 2026, 20:02 UTC

Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.

Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.

Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.

What this channel posts

Photos
≈537
Videos
≈101
Links
≈1,010

Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 8 November 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. A count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints these counters in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈142,000 means somewhere between 141,500 and 142,499.

Video runtime
2h 09m
Average length
25m 54s

Measured directly from 5 videos with a duration reading, out of the posts we hold for this channel — not this channel’s whole posting history, only the sample this register has actually read. An exact reading to the second, taken from the post itself rather than from Telegram’s own rounded chrome, so it carries no ≈ mark.

Reaction mix

8,070 reactions across 59 posts, in 4 distinct kinds. The most used accounts for 70.8% of them.

Every reaction kind recorded on the sample, most used first
ReactionCountShareShare, drawn
❤5,71470.8%
👍1,85623.0%
👏4034.99%
👎971.20%

No sentiment is inferred, and none should be read in. This table is ordered by count and by nothing else. Emoji do not carry stable meaning across languages or communities — 🙏 is thanks in one channel and mourning in another — so we publish which ones were pressed and how often, and pass no judgement on what an audience meant by them.

Precision. Telegram publishes reaction counts per emoji and short-forms each one — 4.34K, 1.2M — so any single kind at or above 1,000 reaches us at three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. The shares above are ratios of those figures and carry the same error. This is also why the total here can differ slightly from a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page: both are sums of the same rounded parts, taken over samples with different edges.

Coverage. Reactions were read on 59 of the 60 sampled posts in this sample. Summed by Telegram’s own count on each post — not by adding up the per-emoji breakdown above — those same posts carry 8,070 reactions in total: the kind of figure the paragraph above means by “a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page”.

Measured over the 60 most recent posts we hold, published 16 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, using the newest reading held for each. Telegram Stars are excluded: they are a payment, not a reaction, and they have their own section.

Recent posts

Telegram’s own ‘edited’ marker: 15 of 20 posts held from the last 30 days (75.0%) carried it when this register last read them. The marker says a post was changed after publishing, not what it said before — this register holds the earlier wording only where an edit fell between two of its own reads (see the edit ledger and how it is measured).

1 Nov 2026, 05:28 UTC≈2,550 views42 reactionsread 8 November 2026
Photo

🔰 دوره تحلیل، پیش‌بینی و مدلسازی صورت‌های مالی انتقال دیدگاه اصولی و متفاوت تحلیل بنیادی 🔹 مدرس: محمد نوربخش تحلیلگر ارشد بازار سرمایه 🔸 آموزش عملی و کاربردی 🔸 شروع دوره: ۲۵ آبان ۱۴۰۵ سرفصل های کل : ■ معرفی و بررسی تک‌تک آیتم‌های صورت‌های مالی (ترازنامه، صورت سود و زیان و صورت جریان وجوه نقد) ■ تشریح ارتباط بین صورت‌های مالی، معرفی نسبت‌های مالی، کاربردها و محدودیت‌های آن‌ها ■ معرفی روش‌های برآورد و پیش‌بینی اق…

❤40👍2

Signed محمد نوربخش

31 Oct 2026, 12:42 UTC≈4,070 views212 reactionsread 8 November 2026

سلام بنظرتون با منطقی که دولت برای پالایشی‌ها شرایط اضطرار تعریف کرده نمی‌توان برای نرخ گاز صنایع پتروشیمی و فلزات و ... هم شرایط اضطرار تعریف کنه تا این شرکتها چوب شرایط اضطراری جنگ روسیه و اوکراین(و رشد نرخ گاز در اروپا) رو نخورن؟! نوربخش https://t.me/tahlilbezabansade

👍169❤29👏10👎4

Signed محمد نوربخش

30 Oct 2026, 16:29 UTC≈3,620 views100 reactionsread 8 November 2026

چه عواملی می‌توانند باعث شوند تحلیل بنیادی فملی در عمل به نتیجه‌ی متفاوت برسد: اول، وزن بالای فملی در شاخص کل(وزن فملی در شاخص کل ۱۸ درصد است)که مدیران دارایی را ترغیب می‌کند سهم فملی را بعنوان سهمی شاخص ساز در پورتفوی خود داشته باشند. بخصوص مدیران دارایی به تجربه دریافته اند که در بازار نزولی معمولا سهام شاخص ساز بیشتر مورد حمایت قرار میگیرند دوم، حساسیت دولت از تاثیر زیاد تغییر حقوق دولتی فملی بر شاخص بورس و احت…

❤80👍17👎3

Signed محمد نوربخش

30 Oct 2026, 11:24 UTC≈3,400 views125 reactionsread 8 November 2026

در ادامه خواهم گفت تحلیل من از فملی چطور میتونه اشتباه باشه یا بعبارتی پاشنه آشیل تحلیل بالا چه مواردی هست نوربخش

👏56❤50👍19

Signed محمد نوربخش

30 Oct 2026, 11:22 UTC≈3,540 views101 reactionsread 8 November 2026
Photo

ریسک افزایش حقوق دولتی در فملی نوربخش https://t.me/tahlilbezabansade

❤79👍14👎5👏3

Signed محمد نوربخش

30 Oct 2026, 11:18 UTC≈3,380 views126 reactionsread 8 November 2026

به نظر می‌رسد یکی از مهم‌ترین ریسک‌های سرمایه‌گذاری در فملی دقیقاً در همین نقطه قرار دارد. ۷. جمع‌بندی و نتیجه‌گیری یکی از موضوعاتی که باید همواره زیر نظر داشته باشیم، سیاست دولت در زمینه حقوق دولتی معادن است بخصوص در شرایط کسری بودجه شدید دولتی. با توجه به اینکه ارزش منابع طبیعی متعلق به دولت و عموم مردم است و از طرفی به دلیل وضعیت کسری شدید بودجه دولت این احتمال وجود دارد که دولت در آینده برای افزایش سهم خود …

❤93👍27👏4👎2

Signed محمد نوربخش

30 Oct 2026, 11:17 UTC≈3,130 views114 reactionsread 8 November 2026

فملی؛ ریسک پنهان در رابطه شرکت ملی مس با دولت در بررسی سودآوری شرکت ملی مس ایران (فملی)، معمولاً تمرکز تحلیلگران بر قیمت جهانی مس، میزان تولید، نرخ ارز و بهای تمام‌شده تولید است؛ اما به نظر می‌رسد یکی از مهم‌ترین ریسک‌های این شرکت، موضوع دیگری است: نحوه تقسیم منافع اقتصادی میان دولت، نیروی کار و صاحبان سرمایه. برای بررسی این موضوع، ابتدا باید به یک نکته مهم توجه کنیم. ۱. معدن متعلق به چه کسی است؟ شرکت ملی مس ا…

❤91👍15👏8

Signed محمد نوربخش

30 Oct 2026, 09:55 UTC≈2,860 views148 reactionsread 8 November 2026

تحلیل فملی رو یک لایه عمیق‌تر کنیم؟ public poll عمیقتر بشیم حتی اگه حقیقت تلخ باشه – 500 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 93% اگر میخوای نکات منفی رو بگی نه ،تعصب داشته باش به بازارمون – 26 ▫️ 5% خودت فملی نداری و میخوای سهم رو بکوبی،حسود – 10 ▫️ 2% 👥 536 people voted so far.

👍129❤18👎1

Signed محمد نوربخش

30 Oct 2026, 09:09 UTC≈3,360 views151 reactionsread 8 November 2026

بررسی ارزش‌گذاری شرکت ملی مس ایران (فملی) با دلار آزاد آیا فملی در قیمت‌های فعلی ارزنده است یا حباب دارد؟ شرکت ملی مس ایران (فملی) در حال حاضر با ارزش بازاری حدود ۴,۱۰۰ همت در بورس تهران معامله می‌شود. اگر ارزش بازار شرکت را با دلار آزاد ۲۵۰ هزار تومانی محاسبه کنیم، به ارزش بازاری حدود ۱۶.۵ میلیارد دلار می‌رسیم. در این تحلیل تلاش می‌کنیم با فرض آزاد بودن نرخ ارز، سودآوری فملی را در دو سناریوی متفاوت قیمت جهانی مس …

❤105👍36👎6👏4

Signed محمد نوربخش

30 Oct 2026, 09:01 UTC≈3,110 views258 reactionsread 8 November 2026
Photo

درود به شما تحلیلی از فملی داشتم در بهترین سناریوها این اینفوگرافی خلاصه اون تحلیل هست که هوش مصنوعی تهیه کرده(یه جای اینفوگرافی تولید مس خالص رو به اشتباه زده ۳۷۰ هزار تن که درستش ۳۲۰ هزار تن هست) موافقید تحلیل کامل متنی رو در کانال منتشر کنم؟ نوربخش https://t.me/tahlilbezabansade

👍203❤50👎3👏2

Signed محمد نوربخش

28 Oct 2026, 13:43 UTC≈4,260 views138 reactionsread 8 November 2026
Video

شما به سهم P/E نمی‌دهید؛ P/E از دل متغیرهای ارزش‌گذاری متولد می‌شود. این ویدئوها جنبه آموزشی دارند و امیدوارم برای شما مفید باشه نوربخش https://t.me/tahlilbezabansade

❤110👏18👍10

Signed محمد نوربخش

28 Oct 2026, 07:51 UTC≈4,430 views116 reactionsread 8 November 2026
Video

خطای پنهان تحلیل بنیادی: یکسان‌سازی P/E شرکت با میانگین صنعت ممنوع! این ویدئوی کوتاه میتونه به خطایی که اغلب در ارزشگذاری عرضه اولیه‌ها میبینیم پایان بده نوربخش https://t.me/tahlilbezabansade

❤86👍20👏10

Signed محمد نوربخش

Showing the 12 most recent of 60 posts we hold for @tahlilbezabansade. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.

Posts recorded as deleted after publishing

We recorded 3 posts on @tahlilbezabansade as deleted — posts this register held that were missing from the channel’s public page on two separate reads, taken from different network addresses at least an hour apart.

A deletion is not wrongdoing. This register can see that a post it held is no longer on the channel’s public page, and when — not why. Expired ad placements, reposts, rotating links and corrections all look the same. This is a count of recorded detections, not an exact total: it misses deletions we could not see, because only a post we held and later re-read inside the page can be seen to go, and it may include a small number of wrong records. How this is measured.

First seen missing
1 September 2026
Most recent seen missing
2 September 2026
Median time before seen missing
23 hours
Seen missing in the last 30 days
0

Forward network

Built only from forwarded posts we have actually read, on both sides. Coverage is early and deliberately incomplete: a missing link means we have not read the post that would prove it, never that the relationship does not exist. Counts are distinct forwarded posts observed, so they only ever go up as we read more.

Mentions

Named by 1 registered channel — every channel on the register whose own posts have named this one, by its current username or any other username it currently holds, merged from two separately captured readings of the same fact so a namer caught by only one of them is not missed and a namer both caught is not counted twice. A username this channel has since dropped is not matched — that handle may belong to someone else now, and crediting today’s namer to yesterday’s owner would misattribute it.

Named by

Channels on the register whose posts name this channel's handle.

Names

Channels on the register whose handles appear in this channel's posts.

A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.

Appears in Telegram’s recommendations for other channels

The reverse of the list above, and a different kind of signal. This does not require this channel to have ever been asked about directly — each row below is a channel we DID ask Telegram about, whose Telegram-generated list happened to include this one. A channel can appear here with an empty list above it, because being named by someone else’s query is independent of having been queried itself.

آرش مهراز - صندوق
@InvestmentMind · 24,670
Telegram ranks this channel #37 of 89 here — alongside 88 others — read 14 September 2026
آپشن باز - اختیار معامله
@OptionBaaz · 19,200
Telegram ranks this channel #46 of 92 here — alongside 91 others — read 5 October 2026
فردانامه _حسن کاظم‌زاده
@fardaname · 24,973
Telegram ranks this channel #50 of 92 here — alongside 91 others — read 16 September 2026
Capital DNA
@Capital_DNA · 27,428
Telegram ranks this channel #56 of 89 here — alongside 88 others — read 11 September 2026
خلاصه بازار
@MarketSummary · 21,170
Telegram ranks this channel #58 of 93 here — alongside 92 others — read 24 September 2026
استخدام در نهادهای مالی - کانون کارگزاران
@SEBAemployment · 26,766
Telegram ranks this channel #61 of 94 here — alongside 93 others — read 12 September 2026
گروه نوویرا | Novira Group
@noviraco · 29,369
Telegram ranks this channel #64 of 97 here — alongside 96 others — read 31 August 2026
شرکت سبدگردان زاگرس
@zagrosassetmanagement · 16,052
Telegram ranks this channel #65 of 91 here — alongside 90 others — read 2 October 2026
توپولی
@topoli · 34,386
Telegram ranks this channel #67 of 89 here — alongside 88 others — read 5 September 2026
تحلیل کاربردی " هلالات "
@validhelalat · 68,358
Telegram ranks this channel #67 of 93 here — alongside 92 others — read 21 August 2026
مرکز تحلیل بنیادی
@tahlil_center · 23,845
Telegram ranks this channel #71 of 92 here — alongside 91 others — read 19 September 2026
کانال کدال 724
@C0dal724 · 23,237
Telegram ranks this channel #75 of 93 here — alongside 92 others — read 22 September 2026
‌بورسار | مجتبی سلطانی
@BoursarMedia · 35,443
Telegram ranks this channel #75 of 95 here — alongside 94 others — read 9 September 2026

This channel appears in 13 seed channels' Telegram-generated recommendation lists in total. Each is Telegram’s list for THAT channel, not this one — see how this is measured.

Cite this entry

A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 8 November 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.

“تحلیل به جای تخیل - محمد نوربخش” (@tahlilbezabansade), 11,948 subscribers as measured 8 November 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/tahlilbezabansade.

Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.