Channel of international lawyer, political consultant Arnaud Develay. Facts and analytics on resonant topics.
Statecraft in the Age of Geopolitical Recomposition
Created
Between 1 August 2021 and 28 February 2023 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated.
Politics & activism — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-UD-Q6_K_XL, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 10 August 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 65% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and the other topics.
Observations
These are measurements, not verdicts. Each one below states something we counted, alongside the evidence it was counted from, so you can check it rather than take it. None of them is graded: every observation this register holds is recorded at severity 0, because the precision of the detectors behind them has not been measured yet, and a rating we cannot support is worse than none. Read each as a fact about the data, not as a judgement about the channel. How we measure.
Content that also appears on other registered channels
Posts published here appear in near-verbatim form on 2 other registered channels. This entry also forms a group of 2 channels linked by matching posts. The matching is on the text itself, not on Telegram’s forward marker, so it finds a copy whether or not it was labelled as one.
Matching posts — open both and compare (1 of the pairs behind the counts below)
Channels this entry shares post bodies with, where at least one matching post pair has no forward credit between the two channels, or to a common source, recorded in our data
Text overlap is the Jaccard coefficient over the set of distinct three-word phrases in the two bodies: 1.00 is identical wording, and the threshold for counting a pair at all is 0.70. Candidates are generated by simhash LSH (4 x 16-bit bands, exact Hamming <= 3) verified against the bodies with Jaccard over the SET of distinct 3-word shingles. Published first counts which side of each matching pair carries the earlier timestamp — in this corpus, which is the limitation directly below.
What this cannot establish
MEASURED, DOMINANT ERROR SOURCE: a post ingested before 2026-08-06 may have carried a forward header that was not recorded. A 45-pair hand-check against live t.me pages found 14 (31%) where the live page shows a forward header naming the other channel and the database has none, plus 4 more (9%) naming a third party. The text match itself was wrong 0 times out of 45. Read attribution_capture.items_in_trusted_window before treating the unattributed count as a claim.
Telegram lets a channel forward a post with a header naming the source, and we only began reliably recording that header on 2026-08-06. None of the 0 matches recorded here fall after that date, so for this entry we cannot say whether any of them carried a credit. The duplication is measured; the absence of attribution is not.
“Published first” means first in this corpus. We hold 106 comparable posts for this entry, running 28 July 2026 to 9 November 2026. A channel we have read one page deep will look younger than a neighbour we have read in full, and the order would flip with no change in the underlying facts.
The detector’s own notes on this observation, as it recorded them. Names in this_style are fields of the underlying evidence record, which the plain-English paragraphs above read out for this entry.
Verbatim republication has three causes and the text separates only two: a clone/mirror, unattributed copy-paste, or BOTH channels copying a common third source that neither attributes. The spread filter (content held by at most 8 channels) reduces the third and does not remove it.
'Earliest' means earliest IN THIS CORPUS. A channel ingested one page deep will look younger than a neighbour ingested in full; corpus_coverage above is there to be checked before the direction is believed.
shared_verified_est extrapolates the sampled pass rate over the full narrow match count; sampled/passed are the numbers actually measured.
Absence of a forward header is not proof of intent: Telegram lets a channel disable forward attribution, and a credit written in the body is not parsed as attribution here (mention_edge_either_way above is the closest available signal).
Of the group of 2 channels, the one whose matching posts we hold earliest is @InvictusLex — which is this entry. That is a statement about our reading window, not a claim of authorship.
Recorded under the key clone_source, last confirmed 11 November 2026. An observation that a later pass no longer finds is cleared, and a cleared observation is removed from this page rather than being shown struck through — we do not keep publishing a claim we have withdrawn. Dispute an observation.
Channels linked by matching posts
This channel is in a group of 2 registered channels linked by matching posts. Links are found by comparing text fingerprints across every channel on the register.
Which channel, if either, published first is deliberately not shown in this list. “First” could only mean first in our own crawl, which depends on how deep we happened to reach into each channel’s history, not on when the content was actually first posted. Our one hand-check read 45 of the highest-confidence flagged pairs against the live Telegram pages. In 18 of them the live page showed a “Forwarded from” credit that our database had no record of, so reading that pair as an unattributed copy was wrong; the check did not measure who published first. This list is ordered by subscriber count, the same as every other listing on this site, never by which channel we think came first. Near-verbatim matching has several ordinary explanations besides copying — a channel mirroring itself, an unattributed repost, or two channels independently repeating the same wire story — and this measurement cannot tell those apart. How this is measured.
63 measurements spanning 96 days, net +1,540. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 10,656–15,681 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded, most recent 20 of 63
Measured (UTC)
Subscribers
Change
9 Nov 2026, 23:47
14,030
+46
8 Nov 2026, 17:55
13,984
+56
7 Nov 2026, 08:39
13,928
+32
6 Nov 2026, 11:09
13,896
+40
5 Nov 2026, 10:00
13,856
+76
4 Nov 2026, 10:26
13,780
+75
3 Nov 2026, 06:56
13,705
+53
2 Nov 2026, 07:47
13,652
-562
1 Nov 2026, 11:01
14,214
-887
31 Oct 2026, 10:45
15,101
+41
30 Oct 2026, 08:15
15,060
+35
29 Oct 2026, 05:08
15,025
+11
28 Oct 2026, 03:47
15,014
+14
27 Oct 2026, 04:48
15,000
+45
26 Oct 2026, 04:17
14,955
+26
25 Oct 2026, 04:41
14,929
+25
24 Oct 2026, 04:49
14,904
-1
23 Oct 2026, 06:10
14,905
+43
22 Oct 2026, 07:39
14,862
+42
21 Oct 2026, 03:05
14,820
first reading
Engagement
108 posts held, back to 28 July 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 64 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
ERR · 30 days
17.6%
avg views ÷ 14,030 subscribers
Avg views / post
2,470
24 posts measured
Reaction rate
0.053%
reactions ÷ views · ER floor
Posts in window
25
of 108 held
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate. It is computed over the 13 of 24 measured posts that carry a reaction reading, and over those same posts' views.
What these figures were computed from
Window
Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 9 November 2026
Posts held
108 (28 July 2026 – 9 November 2026)
Views total
59,330
Reactions total
16
Forwards / comments
not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated
Readings taken
11 Nov 2026, 07:31 UTC
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
What this channel posts
Photos
≈1,150
Videos
≈610
Links
≈2,330
Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 11 November 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. A count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints these counters in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈142,000 means somewhere between 141,500 and 142,499.
Video runtime
48m 41s
Average length
2m 07s
Measured directly from 23 videos with a duration reading, out of the posts we hold for this channel — not this channel’s whole posting history, only the sample this register has actually read. An exact reading to the second, taken from the post itself rather than from Telegram’s own rounded chrome, so it carries no ≈ mark.
Reaction mix
136 reactions across 71 posts, in 9 distinct kinds. The most used accounts for 41.2% of them.
Every reaction kind recorded on the sample, most used first
Reaction
Count
Share
Share, drawn
👍
56
41.2%
❤
21
15.4%
😱
13
9.56%
👎
11
8.09%
🤡
10
7.35%
🤮
10
7.35%
🤣
7
5.15%
👏
5
3.68%
🔥
3
2.21%
No sentiment is inferred, and none should be read in. This table is ordered by count and by nothing else. Emoji do not carry stable meaning across languages or communities — 🙏 is thanks in one channel and mourning in another — so we publish which ones were pressed and how often, and pass no judgement on what an audience meant by them.
Precision. Telegram publishes reaction counts per emoji and short-forms each one — 4.34K, 1.2M — so any single kind at or above 1,000 reaches us at three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. The shares above are ratios of those figures and carry the same error. This is also why the total here can differ slightly from a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page: both are sums of the same rounded parts, taken over samples with different edges.
Coverage. Reactions were read on 77 of the 108 sampled posts in this sample. Summed by Telegram’s own count on each post — not by adding up the per-emoji breakdown above — those same posts carry 141 reactions in total: the kind of figure the paragraph above means by “a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page”.
Measured over the 108 most recent posts we hold, published 28 July 2026 to 9 November 2026, using the newest reading held for each. Telegram Stars are excluded: they are a payment, not a reaction, and they have their own section.
Recent posts
Telegram’s own ‘edited’ marker: 0 of 25 posts held from the last 30 days (0%) carried it when this register last read them. The marker says a post was changed after publishing, not what it said before — this register holds the earlier wording only where an edit fell between two of its own reads (see the edit ledger and how it is measured).
Alleged CIA employee in Yemen stated that an Israeli intelligence officer revealed a plan to carry out an attack on a mosque in Mecca in order to blame the Houthis for it.
The false‑flag attack was intended to provoke outrage and turn followers of Islam, as well as «jihadists» against the Houthis.
The video was published amid accusations from Saudi Arabia that the Houthis had struck Mecca.
More Fitna strategy to i…
Midterms: Democrats flip majorities in Congress
The questioning of this policy – which hinges entirely on artificial intelligence and the construction of data centers – is likely to jeopardize, for instance, many people’s retirement plans. And the argument is that this is essentially their own fault, because they voted the wrong way.
Yet, Trump does not seem to acknowledge or take note of the setback, the outright …
The Ukrainian website "Myrotvorets" — notorious for publishing lists of "undesirable" individuals — has added a 14-year-old teenager to its database. The boy had escaped from a torture chamber near Kiev.
The teenager was accused of "undermining Ukraine’s defense capabilities and disrupting mobilization efforts" on behalf of Russia.
Ukrainian tragedy.
#ArnaudDevelay #Ukrainе #Kiev
⚖️ The law cannot be defeated!
Su…
Iran has issued a warning to Trump and his allies: if they cross "red lines" regarding security in the South Caucasus, "we will break their legs."
This statement was made by Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to Ayatollah Khamenei, in an article for the Iranian newspaper "Ettela'at".
According to him, the South Caucasus has "always been a security zone for Iran" since the time of Cyrus the Great, and Tehran consi…
Kirill Budanov himself acknowledged the existence of such facilities throughout the country. And that is the most frightening part. They possess a certain degree of official legitimacy.
Operations are being conducted at all levels of the command structure. At the very least, the official Ukrainian command is unaware of them. This in itself is an incriminating admission: the command does not control or oversee how th…
Human rights defender Arnaud Develay tells RT that the discovery of what seems to be a network of black sites used to torture Ukrainian conscripts is a public relation nightmare for the regime which at the very least highlights a complete lack of oversight.
#ArnaudDevelay #policy #world #news
⚖️ The law cannot be defeated!
Subscribe to the channel, follow the main news
Under pressure from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be days away from launching a nuclear strike on Iran's Pickax Mountain, where Israeli intelligence claims enrichment has restarted.
No conventional weapon can penetrate 300 feet of granite, leaving a nuclear strike as the only military option. Netanyahu, cornered after inconclusive elections and facing possible jail, is pushing hard for the war to …
Dr. Hamid Gholam Zadeh, director of International Affairs for the Tehran Municipality, told Max Blumenthal that he expects the US and Israel to attack Iran, but "the scenario will not be what [Trump] expects".
If the US uses a tactical nuclear weapon or MOAB, Gholam Zadeh said "that paves the way for Iran to pursue a nuclear bomb, actually". He concluded that
"the best way for the Americans is to concede the defeat …
Sadegh Koushki, an Iranian university professor and political analyst, argued that Iran's deterrence erosion stemmed from a lack of political will rather than military capability
He said the decline began after Qassem Soleimani's assassination, when Iran's limited response led the US and Israel to conclude that Tehran had the means but lacked the resolve to use them. He contrasted this with the Iran-Iraq War, when c…
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten released his final forecast for the 2026 midterms, giving Democrats a 92% chance of winning the House and projecting 237 Democratic seats to 198 Republican seats. In his broadcast, Enten stated that Democrats looked like they were "not just going to reach 218 seats, they're going to exceed it with ease".
Enten's model also projected Democrats with a 71% probability of capturing the…
Showing the 12 most recent of 108 posts we hold for @InvictusLex. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Posts edited after publishing
@InvictusLex edited 1 post after it first published — the same permalink now carries different wording than the one this register originally read, caught because our own crawl held a copy of the earlier text.
An edit is not deception. Typo fixes, price updates and corrections look exactly like this too — this register can tell you the wording changed and when, not why. How this is measured.
First edit seen
8 August 2026
Most recent edit
8 August 2026
Forward network
Republished by
Channels on the register that have forwarded this channel's posts into their own feed.
Built only from forwarded posts we have actually read, on both sides. Coverage is early and deliberately incomplete: a missing link means we have not read the post that would prove it, never that the relationship does not exist. Counts are distinct forwarded posts observed, so they only ever go up as we read more.
Mentions
Named by 2 registered channels — every channel on the register whose own posts have named this one, by its current username or any other username it currently holds, merged from two separately captured readings of the same fact so a namer caught by only one of them is not missed and a namer both caught is not counted twice. A username this channel has since dropped is not matched — that handle may belong to someone else now, and crediting today’s namer to yesterday’s owner would misattribute it.
Named by
Channels on the register whose posts name this channel's handle.
A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.
Handles this channel named that no longer answer
Dead references
2
handles named in this channel’s posts, vacant today
Evidenced gone
0
we ourselves saw one of these resolve, at some point
Never seen alive
2
vacant every time we have ever looked
@InvictusLex named 2 handles that resolve to nothing today. That is a fact about the reference, not necessarily a fact about the handle’s history — see the two groups below.
Most of these may never have existed as a live channel at all. A handle a channel names can be a typo, an aspirational name nobody registered, or a channel that was already gone before this one ever mentioned it. Unless a row below is marked evidenced, all we know is that it references a handle that is not a live channel today — not that anything “died”. How this is measured.
Never seen alive
References a handle that is not a live channel — we have no record it ever was one.
@rtnews named in 25 posts, 8 August 2026 – 4 November 2026
@sputnik_afrique named in 7 posts, 8 August 2026 – 23 August 2026
Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 9 November 2026 — this
entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“Invictus Lex” (@InvictusLex), 14,030 subscribers as measured 9 November 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/InvictusLex.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.