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Channel

🎓 ICEUR School of Political Forecasting

@schooliceur

On this record: Topic · Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Reactions · Posts · Cite this entry

63subscribers

-1 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026

Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of Under 1,000.

Register entry

Telegram ID-1002201620065
TypeChannel
Username@schooliceur
CreatedBetween 1 June 2024 and 30 September 2024 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated.
First recorded10 August 2026
Last confirmed live12 October 2026
Measurements held5
Confirmed unchanged1 time, most recently 12 October 2026
On Telegramt.me/schooliceur

Topic

Politics & activism — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 28 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 95% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and why it has no browse page of its own yet.

Growth

636463.57 August 2026 — 64 subscribers10 August 2026 — 64 subscribers22 August 2026 — 63 subscribers16 September 2026 — 64 subscribers12 October 2026 — 63 subscribers7 August 202612 October 2026
5 measurements spanning 65 days, net -1. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 63–64 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded
Measured (UTC)SubscribersChange
12 Oct 2026, 00:5763-1
16 Sept 2026, 11:5864+1
22 Aug 2026, 05:5663-1
10 Aug 2026, 03:0264no change
7 Aug 2026, 23:2564first reading

Engagement

20 posts held, back to 17 February 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 1 page of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.

Nothing published in the last 30 days. ERR and ER are rolling 30-day measures, so there is nothing to compute — we hold 20 posts for this entry, the most recent from 13 July 2026. An engagement rate over an empty window would be a number about nothing.

What this channel posts

Video runtime
1m 02s
Average length
1m 02s

Measured directly from 1 video with a duration reading, out of the posts we hold for this channel — not this channel’s whole posting history, only the sample this register has actually read. An exact reading to the second, taken from the post itself rather than from Telegram’s own rounded chrome, so it carries no ≈ mark.

Reaction mix

36 reactions across 18 posts, in 5 distinct kinds. The most used accounts for 50.0% of them.

Every reaction kind recorded on the sample, most used first
ReactionCountShareShare, drawn
❤1850.0%
🔥822.2%
✍411.1%
👍38.33%
🤝38.33%

No sentiment is inferred, and none should be read in. This table is ordered by count and by nothing else. Emoji do not carry stable meaning across languages or communities — 🙏 is thanks in one channel and mourning in another — so we publish which ones were pressed and how often, and pass no judgement on what an audience meant by them.

Precision. Telegram publishes reaction counts per emoji and short-forms each one — 4.34K, 1.2M — so any single kind at or above 1,000 reaches us at three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. The shares above are ratios of those figures and carry the same error. This is also why the total here can differ slightly from a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page: both are sums of the same rounded parts, taken over samples with different edges.

Coverage. Reactions were read on 18 of the 20 sampled posts in this sample. Summed by Telegram’s own count on each post — not by adding up the per-emoji breakdown above — those same posts carry 36 reactions in total: the kind of figure the paragraph above means by “a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page”.

Measured over the 20 most recent posts we hold, published 17 February 2026 to 13 July 2026, using the newest reading held for each. Telegram Stars are excluded: they are a payment, not a reaction, and they have their own section.

Recent posts

14 Jun 2026, 12:56 UTC54 views1 reactionsread 10 August 2026

We continue publishing excerpts from interviews with Armenian politicians recorded by ICEUR School in the days following Armenia's parliamentary elections. In this new excerpt, former Ambassador-at-Large of Armenia Edmon Marukyan explains how, in his view, the ruling party managed to win over the country's pro-European electorate. Marukyan argues that voters were promised a path toward the European Union, yet after…

🔥1

13 Jun 2026, 07:48 UTC39 views1 reactionsread 10 August 2026

Two days after Armenia's parliamentary elections, ICEUR School conducted an interview with Hayk Mamijanyan, leader of the "I Have Honor" parliamentary faction. The conversation explores the election results, the OSCE assessment of the vote, the prospects for Armenia's European integration, and one of the most controversial questions in Armenian politics today: Is Armenia genuinely moving toward Europe, or does the r…

🔥1

3 May 2026, 15:07 UTC61 views2 reactionsread 10 August 2026
Photo

King Charles’s Answer to the “New Uncertainty” At the opening of his recent address to the U.S. Congress, King Charles III framed the present moment as one of “great uncertainty,” posing it as a defining challenge for the international community. His response, characteristically British in tone, drew on long-standing traditions and constitutional heritage - anchored in documents such as the Magna Carta and the Bill…

❤2

1 May 2026, 10:46 UTC48 views1 reactionsread 10 August 2026

Bayesian Reasoning: How an Obscure Formula Transformed Modern Statistics Thomas Bayes (1701–1761) was an English cleric and mathematician who formulated a deceptively simple rule: how to update prior beliefs in light of new evidence. This idea - now known as Bayesian inference - remained largely overlooked for more than two centuries. To see why this idea is so counterintuitive - and so powerful in practice - consi…

❤1

18 Apr 2026, 18:18 UTC46 views3 reactionsread 10 August 2026

Dealing with a Messy World We tend to believe that a once orderly and reliable world is now coming apart before our eyes. Planning and forecasting seem increasingly elusive — anything, it appears, can happen at any moment. Even weather and climate feel less predictable than they once did. In such a context, offering training in political forecasting can seem close to a mission impossible. And yet, while the amount …

👍2✍1

17 Apr 2026, 11:22 UTC43 views2 reactionsread 10 August 2026

Can Forecasting Be Taught? Effective forecasting rests on two essential pillars: human judgment and computational modeling - what one might call brainware and software, or more simply, flesh and skeleton. Neither is sufficient on its own. It is their interaction that produces robust foresight. In our programs, the “flesh” is embodied by an international faculty of leading experts. Their disciplinary diversity fost…

❤2

17 Apr 2026, 10:31 UTC33 viewsread 10 August 2026
Photo

Could the outcome of the election in Hungary have been anticipated? From intuition to probabilistic modeling with GeNIe 5.0 - If you look only at polls - no. - If you look at the system of factors - yes. Economy, candidate strength, mobilization, turnout, urban shifts - each of these signals alone explains nothing. But together, they change the probability. This is the logic of Bayes: we don’t guess outcomes - we…

14 Apr 2026, 08:27 UTC45 views2 reactionsread 10 August 2026

War and Propaganda | Dr. Stephen Norris A short interview with Stephen Norris, Professor of History, on his research and upcoming lecture at ICEUR. In this conversation, he explains how propaganda evolves — from the Russian Empire to the Soviet period and modern Russia — and why cinema and cultural narratives play a key role in shaping political thinking and war. 📅 Lecture — April 29 as part of the course “Battlef…

❤2

13 Apr 2026, 19:55 UTC39 views2 reactionsread 10 August 2026

Modern diplomacy no longer happens in meeting rooms and formal receptions — everything has changed dramatically over the past 20 years. Today, the Prime Minister of Hungary, a country that is part of both the EU and NATO, can call the President of Russia in the middle of the war in Ukraine and offer cooperation — and such decisions have direct political consequences, including the loss of power. Understand probable …

❤2

8 Apr 2026, 06:52 UTC47 views3 reactionsread 10 August 2026

Battlefield Diplomacy. The Global Impact of the Ukraine War This is not just a course on the Ukraine war. It’s about the new logic of global politics. European education — no relocation. Analysis, forecasting, real experts. 2 months — and you’re inside the international environment. 📍 Starts April 20 👉 https://iceur-school.at/courses/battlefielddiplomacy/en

✍3

Showing the 12 most recent of 20 posts we hold for @schooliceur. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.

Cite this entry

A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 12 October 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.

“🎓 ICEUR School of Political Forecasting” (@schooliceur), 63 subscribers as measured 12 October 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/schooliceur.

Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.