26 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC322 viewsread 8 August 2026
美债在当下确实很有诱惑力。以10年美债为例，目前YTM 4.7%，如果宏观经济出现任何衰退，还可以获得资本利得。 https://www.pimco.com/gbl/en/insights/old-fashioned-bond-math-for-a-new-fashioned-fed
Channel
香瓜资本
@meloncapital
On this record: Growth · Engagement · Posts · Cite this entry
701subscribers
+1 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of Under 1,000.
Register entry
| Telegram ID | -1001364280268 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @meloncapital |
| Created | Between 1 March 2018 and 31 July 2021— estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated. |
| First recorded | 8 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 24 August 2026 |
| Measurements held | 3 |
| Confirmed unchanged | 1 time, most recently 24 August 2026 |
| On Telegram | t.me/meloncapital |
Growth
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2026, 08:57 | 701 | +1 |
| 8 Aug 2026, 02:19 | 700 | no change |
| 7 Aug 2026, 22:05 | 700 | first reading |
Engagement
20 posts held, back to 27 January 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 1 pageof Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
Nothing published in the last 30 days. ERR and ER are rolling 30-day measures, so there is nothing to compute — we hold 20 posts for this entry, the most recent from 26 July 2026. An engagement rate over an empty window would be a number about nothing.
Recent posts
21 Jul 2026, 11:58 UTC472 viewsread 8 August 2026
上周跟一个程序员朋友在中央公园散步。他也无法理解为什么这是个泡沫。他觉得他每天都要用$100的tokens，而且有实际产出。 但「有真实需求」和「有泡沫」可以同时成立。现在整个行业杠杆太高，资本开支远超短期现金流，估值已经反映了最满的预期。周期永远存在，只是从小周期变成了巨大的周期。我们无法预测周期，只能小心谨慎。没有必要把鱼尾也吃完，该跑就跑。 （利益相关：香瓜资本依旧重仓SK hynix和很多卖铲子股。缓慢减仓中。）
21 Jul 2026, 02:32 UTC391 viewsread 8 August 2026
https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-openai-bubble/ 太长了没有仔细看里面的逻辑。但是说「OpenAI是当代雷曼兄弟」基本上没有错。泡沫会不会破我不知道，但总之大家注意安全、见好就收、千万不要加杠杆。 我刚刚想了想这个事，如果OpenAI炸了基本上会recession。那么我的TIPS为主的美债策略就有一些问题。为了安全应该买一些nominal美债，两三年、五六年、十年期都可以买一些。现在利率也合适。
28 Jun 2026, 16:31 UTC607 viewsread 8 August 2026
如果担心AI近期会回调，或者有一些获利了结，以下是最近我比较喜欢的一些错杀价值标的： * 腾讯（首选）、阿里（次选）、京东（次选）。核心逻辑很简单：全球资金对中概有结构性折价，地缘、监管、宏观、消费疲软这些风险都price-in了。腾讯最舒服，公司质地没有任何问题，游戏、广告、视频号、金融科技都能贡献现金流，还有投资资产和持续回购。 * 高息国企港股，如中海油、中移动、四大行。我的心头好，懂的都懂。现金流稳定、分红率高、估值低。可以一边快乐吃息、一边坐等全球风险偏好下降或者中国资产重估。注意AH溢价，可能要买港股或者港股通。
26 Jun 2026, 01:16 UTC646 viewsread 8 August 2026
BTC跌破60000了，还没配置的朋友们可以开始囤了。BTC我的思路是只买不卖，基本不交易，越囤越多。
24 Jun 2026, 14:02 UTC680 viewsread 8 August 2026
黄金跌破4000了，还没配置的朋友们可以开始囤了。黄金我的思路是只买不卖，基本不交易，越囤越多。
26 May 2026, 14:58 UTC898 viewsread 8 August 2026
买了一些PFE（辉瑞）。加仓了CMCSA（Comcast）、NIO（蔚来）。 A股光模块概念我觉得也可以慢慢开始减仓了。
22 May 2026, 15:43 UTC≈1,010 viewsread 8 August 2026
DELL基本翻倍了，已清仓。换成什么还没想好。可能是PFE一类的价值股。
18 May 2026, 17:23 UTC≈1,080 viewsread 8 August 2026
最近AI仓位过于集中，看了看其他板块，换了一些到中概（FUTU、腾讯）。PFE也是可以买的点位。 A股准备择机止盈一些光模块，换到红利低波（563020）。红利低波可以说是我越看越喜欢的ETF了。好处是可以无脑买不用太择时。
8 May 2026, 17:32 UTC≈1,090 viewsread 8 August 2026
刚刚理发听小哥们聊天才知道，INTC又翻了一番。「我一早上就赚了一千多块钱！」 大概是该卖了。
24 Apr 2026, 14:38 UTC≈1,190 viewsread 8 August 2026
TSM 400了。卖了一些LEAPS获利了结。正股还拿着。 加仓了TM、WRD。
23 Apr 2026, 20:40 UTC≈1,090 viewsread 8 August 2026
Finally doubled.
Showing the 12 most recent of 20 posts we hold for @meloncapital. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 24 August 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“香瓜资本” (@meloncapital), 701 subscribers as measured 24 August 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/meloncapital.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.