Channel
@longtermpick
On this record: Growth · Engagement · Posts · Cite this entry
388subscribers
+3 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of Under 1,000.
| Telegram ID | -1002177226293 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @longtermpick |
| Created | Between 1 June 2024 and 30 September 2024— estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated. |
| First recorded | 8 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 29 August 2026 |
| Measurements held | 6 |
| Confirmed unchanged | 1 time, most recently 29 August 2026 |
| On Telegram | t.me/longtermpick |
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026, 14:18 | 388 | +2 |
| 23 Aug 2026, 07:43 | 386 | -1 |
| 15 Aug 2026, 02:47 | 387 | +3 |
| 8 Aug 2026, 06:05 | 384 | no change |
| 7 Aug 2026, 22:35 | 384 | -1 |
| 7 Aug 2026, 21:54 | 385 | first reading |
20 posts held, back to 28 July 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 1 pageof Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views— note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.
| Window | Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 8 August 2026 |
|---|---|
| Posts held | 20 (28 July 2026 – 8 August 2026) |
| Views total | 923 |
| Reactions total | — |
| Forwards / comments | not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated |
| Readings taken | 8 Aug 2026, 06:05 UTC |
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
😬 A chart from UBS that continues the capex story. For years, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle barely touched the bond market - $20-50B of new debt a year. In 2025 that jumped to ~$110B, and 2026 should exceed $250B. That's ~14% of all investment-grade bonds issued. One dollar in seven now comes from five tech companies. The message is simple: cash flow is no longer enough. Even the richest companies in …
⚙️ BlackRock ranked the 30 most critical companies for AI. The surprise is at the top: Micron #MU is 1, ahead of AMD (2), TSMC (3) and Nvidia only at 4. Also interesting: storage names like Western Digital (10) and Seagate (11) rank above Microsoft (13), and Google, Amazon and Meta are not on the list at all. The logic here is criticality, not size. GPUs exist in volume, but HBM memory is sold out for years ahead - …
🐈 A strange combination in #META right now. The stock is down 21% over the last year. At the same time, analysts expect 21% EPS growth for the next five years - above Meta's own historical average of 16%. Faster growth, lower price: PEG has dropped to 0.89 against a long-term mean of 1.54. Why so cheap? The market is punishing Meta for its huge AI capex (~60% of sales) and for a slow 2026 - EPS grows only ~5% this y…
❕ A warning chart from BofA. Four great market concentrations of the last 60 years: Nifty Fifty peaked at 40% of the S&P 500 in the early 70s, Japan at 44% of the world index in 1989, dot-com tech at 41% in 2000. Each time, that level was the top. Today the AI Big 10 sit at 41% of the #SPX. Does history repeat exactly? I don't think so. The difference from 2000 is that today's leaders trade at ~23x forward earnings …
⚙️ One more chart to complete the picture. Goldman Sachs expects total AI investment reaches $1,019bn in a single year. The big four (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) make up over half of it, with ~$100-170B each. But look at the rest of the list: ~$100B from private companies like OpenAI and xAI, plus CoreWeave, Nebius, SpaceX, Samsung, and the Chinese cloud players. AI spending is no longer a big-tech story. It's …
😳 AI capex. Not in dollars, but as a share of sales. Oracle plans to spend ~$57B, which is ~85% of everything it earns. Meta is at ~60%, Microsoft at ~53%. Google spends the most money after Amazon (~$180B), but it's only ~40% of sales, while Amazon's massive ~$220B is just ~28%. For Oracle, it's a bet-the-company move funded by debt. #AMZN and #GOOGL can keep spending at this pace for years without stress. #ORCL i…
🌟 Microsoft Finally Has Its Own Serious AI Chip Recently, #MSFT presented Maia 200 - its custom chip built for AI inference. The specs look strong next to the other in-house chips: 3x the FP4 compute of Amazon's Trainium3, more FP8 than Google's TPU v7, and the biggest memory of the three (216GB HBM3e). It already runs OpenAI's GPT-5.2 models and Microsoft 365 Copilot, and Microsoft claims 30% better performance per…
🏃♀️ On Holding: Premium Growth at a Normal Price On is the Swiss running shoe brand behind the famous Cloud sneakers, with Roger Federer 🏸 as an early investor. It sells at premium prices and still grows like a young company: sales going from $4.4B in 2026 to $6.5B in 2028, with growth speeding up each year - 16%, then 20%, then 22%. Where does the growth come from? Three places: Asia (China is its fastest market)…
💻 Microsoft: 43% Azure Growth, Priced for a Slowdown #MSFT closed fiscal 2026 with revenue up 18%, operating income up 21%, and Azure accelerating to 43% growth. The stock still trades with an 11% decline over the past year. » Azure crossed $100 billion in annual revenue and is accelerating. Full-year growth of 41% versus 35% in FY2025, a 43% exit rate in the June quarter, and guidance of ~45% for the next quarter.…
🌟 #MSFT One-Pager. The full analysis is on Tuesday. Dan from @longtermpick
⚙️ Cheap AI Is Changing the Race Bloomberg compared what it costs different AI models to solve the same benchmark tasks. The gap is huge: DeepSeek V4 Flash does it for $0.02 per task, while Claude Fable 5 (the most expensive model on the list) costs $2.75. That's more than a 100x difference, and Chinese models fill most of the cheap end of the chart. To be fair, this chart shows price, not who is smarter. The expen…
😎 The Market Starts Pricing Risk Into Nvidia An unusual chart from Bloomberg: the price of #NVDA 5-year credit default swaps, insurance against the company not paying its debt, doubled in July, from ~40 to ~80 basis points. The trigger was reports of a $750 billion AI push, where Nvidia helps finance the buildout around its own chips. The concern is straightforward: Nvidia sells chips to customers it also invests i…
Showing the 12 most recent of 20 posts we hold for @longtermpick. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 29 August 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“Long-Term Pick” (@longtermpick), 388 subscribers as measured 29 August 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/longtermpick.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.