7 Aug 2026, 19:41 UTC599 views13 reactionsread 8 August 2026 Many of the high TFR remote Pacific islands like Tonga also have high emigration levels. So if their TFRs crash to replacement they are toast.
Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), with a TFR close to replacement, experiences huge emigration as does the Marshall Islands (though their TFR is above 2.5). Samoa also has high emigration while their fertility rate has fallen to below 2.5. Small states to shrink to not…
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6 Aug 2026, 03:53 UTC≈1,110 views78 reactionsread 8 August 2026 While mainly a discussion point amongst more niche demographic communities at present, the African fertility collapse to be visable to all by the 2030s. In West, East, & Central Africa TFR likely to fall below 3.5 by mid 2030s. Will be below replacement in all of North & Southern Africa.
https://x.com/ulmer62336950/status/2084712951802450141
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6 Aug 2026, 03:40 UTC≈1,120 views112 reactionsread 8 August 2026 Photo
🇿🇦 👶 South Africa now below their replacement level fertility rate of 2.15.
Expect many many more countries in Sub Saharan Africa to follow.
Sub Saharan Africa’s population will not come close to 2.5B let alone 4B.
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2 Aug 2026, 00:17 UTC≈1,860 views64 reactionsread 8 August 2026 Photo
On this note Kyrgyzstan may overtake Ukraine in births despite having less than 1/3rd the population. When the Soviet Union collapsed Ukraine had ~52 million people and Kyrgyzstan~4.5M. Today Kyrgyzstan has ~7M people and Ukraine ~28M.
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2 Aug 2026, 00:17 UTC≈1,630 views32 reactionsread 8 August 2026 Where populations of the former Soviet Republics are likely to be in 2040 versus 1989 is very interesting. Particularly Belarus (10.2M 1989 to ~8M in 2040) vs Azerbaijan (~7M 1989 to 10.3M in 2040), & Georgia (5.45M 1989 to 3.6M 2040) vs Tajikistan (5.1M 1989 to 13.5M 2040).
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24 Jul 2026, 19:07 UTC≈3,060 views75 reactionsread 8 August 2026 Urban areas face a dark irony: City culture tanked fertility rates, and now low fertility is breaking them.Falling births + remote work = collapsing tax bases.If cities don’t pivot to retaining families, they face ghost schools and fiscal ruin.
Basically, around much of the rich world cities engineered a culture without children. Now, it’s killing these areas. Cities must change urban culture to make it easier for y…
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24 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC≈1,930 views44 reactionsread 8 August 2026 Birthrate crisis to fundamentally change global finance. JP Morgan declared 40-year era of cheap borrowing is dead. World physically running out of labor pools just as many governments abandon fiscal discipline. As populations age interest rates face permanent upward pressure.
The global demographic crisis will obviously upend a whole lot. Aging populations are spiking pension & healthcare costs. Defense, energ…
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22 Jul 2026, 21:28 UTC≈1,970 views58 reactionsread 8 August 2026 From 2026-2035, China will shed nearly 60 million people, losing the population of Italy in less than a decade. You cannot grow a domestic, consumer-driven retail market when the total target consumer base is shrinking by millions of citizens every year.https://rhg.com/research/chinas-demographic-future/
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22 Jul 2026, 20:54 UTC≈1,580 views102 reactionsread 8 August 2026 Photo
According to OpenDataBot in first half of 2026 there’s been only 73,292 births in Ukraine,while the number of deaths so far number 259,853. This is a significant 10%+ fall in births over the same period of 2025. Remember in 2025 fertility rate in Ukraine was no higher than 1.2.
While many sources say Ukrainian TFR in 2025 was only 0.72 or so personally doubt this as the number of women aged 18-45 in the country wa…
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21 Jul 2026, 20:38 UTC≈1,830 views86 reactionsread 8 August 2026 If China’s current sub 1.0 fertility rate becomes the baseline norm, six people will die for every single newborn in the country’s subsequent generations. China is effectively losing the sheer human mass required to sustain their domestic society & consumer economy…
China has a very small window to turn this around. From everything I’ve seen teased there are no natalist measures in the pipeline that will dramatical…
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17 Jul 2026, 01:43 UTC≈2,660 views80 reactionsread 8 August 2026 For the 1st time in American history, U.S. birth rate for women aged 40–44 (at 12.7 per 1,000) has officially surpassed the teen birth rate ages 15–19 which is 12.6 per 1,000. In contrast to the highest birthing cohort (women aged 30-34) which is 93.7 per 1,000. Women aged 45-49 had a birth rate of just 1.1 per 1,000. Source CDC NVSS.
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17 Jul 2026, 01:42 UTC≈2,630 views44 reactionsread 8 August 2026 Laos is getting close to replacement & will likely be at or below it by 2030 along with Cambodia. Tiny East Timor will be the last one standing above replacement in Southeast Asia by 2030, & that is if they are very lucky.
https://x.com/divideetimpera5/status/2076663191250092117
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Showing the 12 most recent of 20 posts we hold for @dem0graphics. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.