11 Apr 2025, 09:48 UTC488 views8 reactionsread 11 August 2026 Rewarding Russian aggression in Ukraine would send shockwaves across Eurasia. For three years, many countries in its former periphery have benefited from Moscow’s weakness. A bad deal now could reverse that—and embolden Russia.
My latest:
🔗 https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/04/russia-influence-future?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia
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24 Mar 2025, 08:45 UTC565 views13 reactionsread 11 August 2026 Photo
My long essay on how Azerbaijan reclaimed its territories—what others shouldn’t try to copy, and what comes next for the South Caucasus.
Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game.
Link:https://gfsis.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/228-expert-opinion-eng.pdf
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21 Feb 2025, 05:47 UTC651 views6 reactionsread 11 August 2026 Photo
"Əkinçi" layihəsi çərçivəsində milli kimliyin formalaşması mövzusunda fikirlərimi bölüşmüşəm. Layihə çərçivəsində müxtəlif maraqlı mövzuları əhatə edən müsahibələri onların YouTube kanalından izləyə bilərsiniz.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9_a8NPjoGo
I have shared my thoughts on the formation of national identity in an interview for the "Əkinçi" YouTube channel. You can also watch other interviews on their chann…
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6 Feb 2025, 04:08 UTC681 views12 reactionsread 11 August 2026 Azerbaijan-Russia Relations
Some argue Azerbaijan-Russia ties are strengthening, while others see cracks forming. I shared my thoughts on this topic—full interview here:
https://caucasuswatch.de/en/interviews/zaur-shiriyev-the-lasting-effect-of-flight-8243-on-bakus-relationship-to-moscow.html
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31 Jan 2025, 07:18 UTC596 views9 reactionsread 11 August 2026 Photo
Kazakh Oil Transit via BTC: A 'Historic' Shift or Just Business as Usual? (2)
Third, there is a need for infrastructure upgrades. The current process is challenging, as oil from Kazakh fields is transported by pipeline to Aktau, then shipped across the Caspian Sea by tankers—a time-consuming and costly method due to storage and waiting costs. Aktau port has a capacity of only five to six million tons of oil per year…
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31 Jan 2025, 07:13 UTC418 views13 reactionsread 11 August 2026 Photo
Kazakh Oil Transit via BTC: A 'Historic' Shift or Just Business as Usual? (1)
We are living in a time when almost any effort to reduce reliance on Russia—whether by criticizing it or diverting resources—is labeled as “historic.” In some respects, this characterization makes sense, but it can also create a misleading impression.
I often see media coverage describing Kazakh oil shipments to Azerbaijan as “historic” a…
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29 Jan 2025, 15:02 UTC380 views10 reactionsread 11 August 2026 Photo
Insightful Analysis on the Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Process and the U.S. Role
I just came across Seymur Kazimov's latest piece on the U.S. and its potential role in the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace process. It’s a well-detailed analysis, and I highly recommend reading it. The article is available only in Azerbaijani and Russian.
He makes an excellent point that many expect Trump to turn his attention to the Azerbaij…
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27 Jan 2025, 09:27 UTC523 views15 reactionsread 11 August 2026 Для тех, кто читает на русском, вот перевод моего недавнего поста — заранее извиняюсь за любые грамматические ошибки.
Цены на нефть, давление на Россию и возможное влияние на Азербайджан
На прошлой неделе в Давосе выступление президента США Дональда Трампа вызвало бурные дебаты и мировую реакцию. Он заявил: «Я собираюсь попросить Саудовскую Аравию и ОПЕК снизить стоимость нефти». Его аргумент заключается в том, что…
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27 Jan 2025, 06:32 UTC488 views19 reactionsread 11 August 2026 Photo
Oil Prices, Pressure on Russia, and Possible Impact on Azerbaijan
There has been heated debate and global reactions to US President Trump’s speech last week in Davos, where he stated, “I’m going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.” His rationale is that lower oil prices would undermine Russia’s ability to sustain its war efforts, potentially forcing Moscow to compromise or sit at the negotiat…
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Beyond the Divide pinned a photo
26 Jan 2025, 15:38 UTC869 views10 reactionsread 11 August 2026 Photo
Why Azerbaijani Gas Can't Transit Through Ukraine to Eastern Europe
After the end of the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine on January 1, which allowed Russian gas to flow through Ukraine to the EU and Moldova, the deal was not renewed. While there was some discussion about Azerbaijan stepping in to replace this transit role, the termination of the agreement is now a thing of the past. However, countr…
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26 Jan 2025, 14:11 UTC723 views9 reactionsread 11 August 2026 Will the Trump administration push for a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan? (2)
These are early indications, but much will depend on how the Trump administration handles the end of the Ukraine war—whether it succeeds or not—and how long it takes. Trump's earlier predictions of ending the war in 24 hours were more talk than realistic assessments. If the administration fails to resolve the Ukraine conflict, pushi…
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Showing the 12 most recent of 16 posts we hold for @beyondthedivide. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.