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Channel

Социальный Прогноз

@SocialForecast

On this record: Topic · Observations · Channels linked by matching posts · Growth · Engagement · Posts · Polls · Cite this entry

89subscribers

-3 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026

Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of Under 1,000.

Register entry

Telegram ID-1002126760374
TypeChannel
Username@SocialForecast
CreatedBetween 1 November 2023 and 13 May 2024 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated.
First recorded9 August 2026
Last confirmed live5 November 2026
Measurements held8
Confirmed unchanged2 times, most recently 5 November 2026
On Telegramt.me/SocialForecast

Topic

Crypto & trading — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 27 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 87% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and the other topics.

Observations

These are measurements, not verdicts. Each one below states something we counted, alongside the evidence it was counted from, so you can check it rather than take it. None of them is graded: every observation this register holds is recorded at severity 0, because the precision of the detectors behind them has not been measured yet, and a rating we cannot support is worse than none. Read each as a fact about the data, not as a judgement about the channel. How we measure.

Content that also appears on other registered channels

Posts published here appear in near-verbatim form on 3 other registered channels. This entry also sits inside a group of 17 channels linked by matching posts, directly or through other channels in the group; two members of the group may share no posts with each other. The matching is on the text itself, not on Telegram’s forward marker, so it finds a copy whether or not it was labelled as one.

Matching posts — open both and compare (6 of the pairs behind the counts below)
Posted firstThenOverlapGap
@DeltaRisk/210113 May 2024, 23:06 UTC@SocialForecast/1838 · this entry13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC1.004 minutes
@DeltaRisk/210313 May 2024, 23:06 UTC@SocialForecast/1840 · this entry13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC1.004 minutes
@DeltaRisk/210413 May 2024, 23:06 UTC@SocialForecast/1841 · this entry13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC1.004 minutes
@DeltaRisk/210513 May 2024, 23:06 UTC@SocialForecast/1842 · this entry13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC1.004 minutes
@DeltaRisk/210813 May 2024, 23:06 UTC@SocialForecast/1845 · this entry13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC1.004 minutes
@DeltaRisk/210913 May 2024, 23:06 UTC@SocialForecast/1846 · this entry13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC1.004 minutes
Channels this entry shares post bodies with, where at least one matching post pair has no forward credit between the two channels, or to a common source, recorded in our data
ChannelMatching postsText overlapTypical gapPublished first
@DeltaRisk10 (8/8 hand-verifiable sample passed)1.004 minutes@DeltaRisk (10–0)
@bountybuilders10 (8/8 hand-verifiable sample passed)1.00under a minute@bountybuilders (10–0)
@forklog10 (8/8 hand-verifiable sample passed)1.003 days@forklog (10–0)

Text overlap is the Jaccard coefficient over the set of distinct three-word phrases in the two bodies: 1.00 is identical wording, and the threshold for counting a pair at all is 0.70. Candidates are generated by simhash LSH (4 x 16-bit bands, exact Hamming <= 3) verified against the bodies with Jaccard over the SET of distinct 3-word shingles. Published first counts which side of each matching pair carries the earlier timestamp — in this corpus, which is the limitation directly below.

What this cannot establish

MEASURED, DOMINANT ERROR SOURCE: a post ingested before 2026-08-06 may have carried a forward header that was not recorded. A 45-pair hand-check against live t.me pages found 14 (31%) where the live page shows a forward header naming the other channel and the database has none, plus 4 more (9%) naming a third party. The text match itself was wrong 0 times out of 45. Read attribution_capture.items_in_trusted_window before treating the unattributed count as a claim.

Telegram lets a channel forward a post with a header naming the source, and we only began reliably recording that header on 2026-08-06. None of the 30 matches recorded here fall after that date, so for this entry we cannot say whether any of them carried a credit. The duplication is measured; the absence of attribution is not.

“Published first” means first in this corpus. We hold 11 comparable posts for this entry, running 13 May 2024 to 13 May 2024. A channel we have read one page deep will look younger than a neighbour we have read in full, and the order would flip with no change in the underlying facts.

The detector’s own notes on this observation, as it recorded them. Names in this_style are fields of the underlying evidence record, which the plain-English paragraphs above read out for this entry.

  • Verbatim republication has three causes and the text separates only two: a clone/mirror, unattributed copy-paste, or BOTH channels copying a common third source that neither attributes. The spread filter (content held by at most 8 channels) reduces the third and does not remove it.
  • 'Earliest' means earliest IN THIS CORPUS. A channel ingested one page deep will look younger than a neighbour ingested in full; corpus_coverage above is there to be checked before the direction is believed.
  • shared_verified_est extrapolates the sampled pass rate over the full narrow match count; sampled/passed are the numbers actually measured.
  • Absence of a forward header is not proof of intent: Telegram lets a channel disable forward attribution, and a credit written in the body is not parsed as attribution here (mention_edge_either_way above is the closest available signal).

Of the group of 17 channels, the one whose matching posts we hold earliest is @forklog. That is a statement about our reading window, not a claim of authorship.

Recorded under the key clone_copy, last confirmed 11 November 2026. An observation that a later pass no longer finds is cleared, and a cleared observation is removed from this page rather than being shown struck through — we do not keep publishing a claim we have withdrawn. Dispute an observation.

Channels linked by matching posts

This channel is in a group of 17 registered channels linked by matching posts, directly or through other channels in the group. This channel may share no posts with some of the channels listed below, and listed channels may share none with each other. Links are found by comparing text fingerprints across every channel on the register.

Which channel, if either, published first is deliberately not shown in this list. “First” could only mean first in our own crawl, which depends on how deep we happened to reach into each channel’s history, not on when the content was actually first posted. Our one hand-check read 45 of the highest-confidence flagged pairs against the live Telegram pages. In 18 of them the live page showed a “Forwarded from” credit that our database had no record of, so reading that pair as an unattributed copy was wrong; the check did not measure who published first. This list is ordered by subscriber count, the same as every other listing on this site, never by which channel we think came first. Near-verbatim matching has several ordinary explanations besides copying — a channel mirroring itself, an unattributed repost, or two channels independently repeating the same wire story — and this measurement cannot tell those apart. How this is measured.

Growth

879289.57 August 2026 — 92 subscribers9 August 2026 — 92 subscribers15 August 2026 — 91 subscribers23 August 2026 — 89 subscribers2 October 2026 — 88 subscribers12 October 2026 — 87 subscribers20 October 2026 — 88 subscribers28 October 2026 — 89 subscribers897 August 202628 October 2026
8 measurements spanning 82 days, net -3. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 86–93 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded
Measured (UTC)SubscribersChange
28 Oct 2026, 08:0889+1
20 Oct 2026, 08:3188+1
12 Oct 2026, 09:5687-1
2 Oct 2026, 16:5888-1
23 Aug 2026, 18:4489-2
15 Aug 2026, 03:1691-1
9 Aug 2026, 13:4692no change
7 Aug 2026, 11:3792first reading

Engagement

20 posts held, back to 13 May 2024 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 1 page of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.

Nothing published in the last 30 days. ERR and ER are rolling 30-day measures, so there is nothing to compute — we hold 20 posts for this entry, the most recent from 13 May 2024. An engagement rate over an empty window would be a number about nothing.

Recent posts

13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC14 viewsread 9 August 2026
Photo

👀 За три недели количество выпущенных USDT в сети TON превысило 230 млн. #Tether #TON #USDT

13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC3 viewsread 9 August 2026
Photo

Аналитики Santiment отметили, что на минувшей неделе рынок упал на 3,6%, тогда как совокупный объем торгов оказался на 27% ниже предыдущих семи дней. #Santiment

13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC4 viewsread 9 August 2026
Photo

В сети L3-решения Degen Chain наблюдается проблема с производством блоков, обратил внимание журналист Колин Ву. Причина неизвестна, команда пока не прокомментировала ситуацию — последняя запись в X датирована 11 мая. Апдейт: представители проекта заявили, что «находятся в процессе решения этой проблемы». #L3

13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC2 viewsread 9 August 2026

🗣По мнению CEO Ripple Брэда Гарлингхауса, правительство США «преследует Tether», что может оказать непредсказуемое влияние на крипторынок. Он не уточил подробности и назвал любые действия властей против эмитента USDT очередным «черным лебедем». #мнение #Ripple #Tether

13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC2 viewsread 9 August 2026

Апдейт: хакер вернул пользователю почти все украденные средства на общую сумму 22 960 ETH (~$67,1 млн). #хакеры #транзакции

13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC2 viewsread 9 August 2026

🐋 Входящий в «Большую четверку» банков США Wells Fargo раскрыл в отчетности для SEC инвестиции в спотовый биткоин-ETF от Grayscale. В форме также фигурирует незначительное количество акций компании-производителя криптоматов Bitcoin Depot. #WellsFargo #ETF #Grayscale

13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC2 viewsread 9 August 2026

💬 Джек Дорси объяснил причины ухода из совета директоров Bluesky осознанием того, что проект повторяет все ошибки основанной им соцсети Twitter (теперь X) и не может считаться по-настоящему децентрализованным. Это еще одно приложение. Он остается верным экосистеме биткоина и то, как она стимулирует коллективные усилия по улучшению сети: Помимо истории основания, самое удивительное в биткоине — то, что каждый […], …

13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC2 viewsread 9 August 2026

Апдейт: переговоры хакера и пользователя, потерявшего $68 млн после пылевой атаки, прошли успешно. По наблюдениям PeckShield, хакер вернул ~50% средств — 11 460 ETH на $34,7 млн. #хакеры #транзакции

13 May 2024, 23:10 UTC2 viewsread 9 August 2026

⚡️ Объем торгов криптовалютой на платформе Robinhood вырос на 224% в первом квартале этого года, следует из отчета компании. По состоянию на конец марта она хранит цифровые активы пользователей на $26 млрд. #Robinhood

Showing the 12 most recent of 20 posts we hold for @SocialForecast. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.

Polls

The poll we hold for this entry, as Telegram rendered it when we read the post. A poll’s figures keep moving after that, so each one is dated.

13 May 2024, 23:10 UTCAnonymous Poll0 voters

Будете ли вы покупать SCALE?

  1. Да, куплю0%
  2. Купил, но уже зафиксировал0%
  3. Только биткоин, только хардкор0%

Shares as published, totalling 0%. No per-option vote count is published by Telegram, so none is shown.

Percentages only — there are no per-option vote counts here, because Telegram publishes none. The public post preview gives each option’s share and a single voter total, and nothing else. Multiplying one by the other would produce a per-option tally that looks measured and is not: the shares are rounded to whole numbers before we ever see them. We print what was published and leave the column that does not exist empty.

The shares need not add up to 100. Rounding alone puts many polls at 99 or 101. A poll that allows more than one answer per voter runs well past 100 by design, and several here do. The bars are drawn against a fixed 100% track at each option’s own percentage rather than normalised to the total, so a poll that exceeds it shows that it does instead of being quietly rescaled.

Read from the 20 most recent posts we hold, published 13 May 2024 to 13 May 2024. Telegram labels each poll by kind — an anonymous poll, a quiz, a closed set of final results — and that label is reproduced rather than paraphrased.

Cite this entry

A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 28 October 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.

“Социальный Прогноз” (@SocialForecast), 89 subscribers as measured 28 October 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/SocialForecast.

Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.