Carnegie Politika

Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart, writes Tatiana Stanovaya.

Ukraine’s recent government and security reshuffle shows that ultimately, Zelensky sided neither with the reform camp nor with the military establishment, but with political control. Read Balázs Jarábik's article here.

Official discussions about mini oil refineries are unlikely to come to anything—but the mere fact they’re happening reveals the Russian regime is failing to deliver a functioning economy, argues Sergey Vakulenko.

The security forces are targeting Arkady and Boris Rotenberg’s patronage network—and in Putin’s Russia, it’s extremely hard to stop a purge once it’s under way, writes Mikhail Komin.

Don't miss the latest Carnegie Politika podcast with Alexander Gabuev and Nate Reynolds, devoted to the future of transatlantic security following the recent NATO summit in Ankara.

Whether Moldova’s ruling party, PAS, can refocus on the unfinished business of state-building may ultimately prove more consequential for the country’s European future than the pace of its accession negotiations. Read Balázs Jarábik's article here

Russia looks set to reap economic benefits from closer ties with Southeast Asian countries that are keen to find reliable energy suppliers and diversify trade ties. Read Alexander Gabuev's opinion here.

Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East allows Moscow to both increase its influence in Tehran and continue to enjoy the financial windfall of higher oil prices, argues Nikita Smagin.

If it proves impossible for the Russian authorities to avoid a gasoline deficit, the question then becomes how they will organize the distribution of a scarce resource. Read Sergey Vakulenko's article here.

Russia's ruling elite is a community of managers who are not subject to competition or public accountability. And the state is becoming an operating apparatus without any internal autonomy, argues Alexandra Prokopenko in her new paper.

The issue is not that Putin only has selective information at his disposal, but that the decision-making process consists of one person with an unshakeable vision of how the world works. Read Tatiana Stanovaya's insight here.

A high-profile disagreement over internet restrictions in Russia was never an existential threat to Putin—it was about elite groups protecting their interests, writes Alexandra Prokopenko.