Channel
@polym8
On this record: Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Posts · Citations · Handles named that no longer answer · Cite this entry
29,271subscribers
-3,131 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 10,000–31,623.
| Telegram ID | -1001593149911 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @polym8 |
| Description | 🌍 联盟导航 @LM667788 💎 商务合作 @yh184 Polymarket｜全球热点｜预测市场 政治｜金融｜AI｜体育｜Crypto｜突发事件 看市场正在押注什么 |
| Created | Between 1 August 2021 and 31 January 2023— estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated. |
| First recorded | 7 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 14 August 2026 |
| Measurements held | 8 |
| Confirmed unchanged | 1 time, most recently 14 August 2026 |
| On Telegram | t.me/polym8 |
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026, 05:18 | 29,271 | -367 |
| 13 Aug 2026, 01:25 | 29,638 | -1,658 |
| 12 Aug 2026, 01:11 | 31,296 | +686 |
| 11 Aug 2026, 02:33 | 30,610 | -482 |
| 10 Aug 2026, 01:23 | 31,092 | -407 |
| 9 Aug 2026, 00:55 | 31,499 | -589 |
| 7 Aug 2026, 23:01 | 32,088 | -314 |
| 7 Aug 2026, 05:16 | 32,402 | first reading |
278 posts held, back to 6 August 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 20 pagesof Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views— note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.
| Window | Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 14 August 2026 |
|---|---|
| Posts held | 278 (6 August 2026 – 14 August 2026) |
| Views total | 915,901 |
| Reactions total | — |
| Forwards / comments | not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated |
| Readings taken | 14 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC |
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 14 August 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. A count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints these counters in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈142,000 means somewhere between 141,500 and 142,499.
Measured directly from 20 videos with a duration reading, out of the posts we hold for this channel — not this channel’s whole posting history, only the sample this register has actually read. An exact reading to the second, taken from the post itself rather than from Telegram’s own rounded chrome, so it carries no ≈ mark.
伊朗领导层交接概率升至26%，市场74%押注原状不动 预测市场对“伊朗领导层变动在2027年6月30日前发生”的定价，24小时内从25.5%微升至26.0%，Yes一侧仍明显落后于No的74%，双方差距拉大到48个百分点。此事关注度不低（公众相关性评分82），但概率纹丝不动表明，市场对短期内最高权力结构保持现状已有稳定预期，传闻与表态暂时都未能松动这一判断。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
中期选举两院归属概率24小时零波动，民主党49.5%对50.5%僵持 预测市场对“2026年民主党同时赢下参众两院”的定价停在49.5%（Yes）对50.5%（No），双方差距仅1个百分点，过去24小时没有任何变动。市场对这一问题的判断已完全钉住，没有新的资金或信息推动重新定价。同期彭博社连续两天发布中期选举路线图报道，舆论讨论热度（公众相关性评分82）明显高于市场变动幅度。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
#付费广告 【8K国际】U投首选综合平台|信誉至上 |财富相伴 东南亚盘总首选权威🔤台🌈🌈🌈🌈 🌈🌈🌈🌈🌈： 8k273.com ⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡ 😘😘😘😘😘😘😘😘😘😘😘😘 ⚡ 千万域名，百亿大盘 ⚡ ❤不限IP，日提不限提款次数和额度 ❤出款最稳，福利好反水高无上限 ❤公平公正，电子真人0审核秒出款 ❤全网广告频道上押1⃣0⃣0⃣0⃣万⚡ 🌈🌈🌈🌈🌈🌈🌈🌈🌈🌈🌈⚡ 天选之人：PP电子极速糖果 30U爆25000倍满倍大奖75万U 😀 赌神在线：百家乐战神 大哥一天时间狂砍100万U 😀 糖果大水：PP电子极速糖果 单注500爆得500万U巨奖 😀 福星高照：CQ9电子 玩家仅用5315元斩获惊喜大奖喜提55万U 😀 【#8K国际｜全网福利天花板】 首存1000 赠送彩金108 首存3000 赠送彩金318 首存5000 赠送彩金588 首存1万 赠送彩金1288 …
加息降息新闻轮番上场，2026不降息概率仍钉死86%不动 美联储明年利率路径的讨论过去几天密集见报：一边是通胀降温推升降息预期，另一边仍有分析师给出加息情形。但预测市场对“2026年完全不降息”的定价纹丝不动，Yes一侧停在86.0%，过去24小时零波动。当前Yes对No的差距高达71.9个百分点，显示这一判断远未被新闻动摇。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
霍尔木兹年底恢复通行概率45.5%，市场仍偏“不会”且24小时零波动 预测市场对“霍尔木兹海峡12月31日前恢复正常通行”的定价停在45.5%（Yes）对54.5%（No），双方差距9个百分点，市场整体偏向“不会”。过去24小时该概率没有任何变动，显示这一判断已被充分消化，暂时缺乏新信息推动重定价。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
高价押JD Vance不会赢2028，聪明钱为何与77c定价对立 当市场给“JD Vance赢得2028年总统选举”开出77美分时，一家高可信聪明钱地址却把$416.2K押在“不会发生”上，同时用$178.0K反向对冲兜底。该地址近30天已实现$116.8K盈利，这个仓位方向因此更值得留意——它押注的不只是事件翻转，还包括当前定价可能偏贵。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩 🤩稀缺亿级域名｜78.COM 🤩TG 小程序 ｜自由下注 🤩NO钱包上押 3亿U｜可查验 🤩🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩 🤩🤩🤩 🤩专业服务 超高限红 毫秒出款 🤩香港彩特码🤩🤩倍 🤩连码三中三🤩🤩🤩倍 🤩连码四中四🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩倍 🤩百家乐全网最高返水🤩% 🤩电子、棋牌、捕鱼返水🤩.🤩% 🤩十三水/德州，自主组队，无抽佣 😄🏆【大發78.COM 爆奖天花板】🏆 🔥 💎 财神降临： PG电子爆分模式 68U狂飙18000倍 豪取120万U 🔥 运气爆棚： TG真人竞技之神 土豪一天时间狂收 180万U 🌟 幸运锦鲤： WG电子速爆 单注300爆出400万U超级大奖 ⚡️ 爆分时刻： DB真人百家乐 玩家仅用3680狂赚暴提66万U 🤩不靠噱头，靠品牌说话。 🤩好品牌无需堆砌，大發 78.COM 本身就是辨识度。 🤩🤩🤩🤩 : 78.COM …
质押率升至34%消息落地，以太坊8月上2000美元概率仍回落1.5个百分点 预测市场对以太坊8月能否触及2000美元的定价，24小时内从51.0%回落至49.5%，Yes一侧由微弱领先转为落后，与No的差距仅剩1个百分点。期内The Block报道以太坊质押率升至34%，且有提案聚焦验证者奖励与ETH资金库收益，但正面消息未见效。市场当前几乎对半开，方向未明。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
Lula胜选概率钉死63.5%不动，巴西资产却先跌为敬 预测市场对卢拉赢得2026年巴西总统选举的定价过去24小时保持在63.5%，与36.5%的No一侧拉开27个百分点，没有任何松动。同期，彭博社报道巴西资产因选举担忧开始下滑，路透社独家披露博索纳罗竞选团队正在起草一套债务挂钩财政规则以取代现行框架。外资正在以2021年以来最快速度撤离巴西股票。市场对选举结果的判断异常稳定，而资金行为已提前进入避险模式。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
比特币周内跌至62,000美元概率单日翻倍至51.5% 预测市场对“比特币8月10-16日跌至62,000美元”的定价在24小时内从25.5%飙升至51.5%，单日跳涨26个百分点，概率直接翻倍。Yes一侧以51.5%对48.5%微弱领先，双方差距仅3个百分点。市场在短时间内从偏否定转向偏肯定，这是本周少见的单一标的剧烈重定价。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
涉普京三消息连发，下台概率仍仅升1个百分点至12.5% CNN报道反战政治家逃离俄罗斯、Politico报道普京登争议岛屿激怒日本、路透社报道俄威胁扣押欧洲船只——三条消息在24小时内接连出现，市场只把“普京2027年6月30日前下台”的概率从11.5%上调至12.5%，几乎原地不动。Yes一侧仍以12.5%对87.5%大幅落后，75个百分点的差距表明交易者并未因近期事件改变对普京政治寿命的基准判断。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
😁😁😁😁😁😁😁😁😁😁😁😁😁 😀😀😀😀😀 😀😀😀😀😀 ————————————————————— 😀 实体赌场 · 公平公正 · 信誉保障 😀 实力实体，诚信经营；规范管理，值得信赖。 😀 资金管理规范，出入款高效顺畅，专业团队贴心服务。 😀 实力铸就信誉，诚信赢得未来。让每一次选择，都更安心。 ————————————————————— 5星级实体赌场真人视讯游戏类型： 😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀 线上真人视讯游戏全网最高单局返佣双边 😀😀 采取先发牌，后下注模式。绝对公平公正。 ————————————————————— 📣 66U官网：66U.com 📣 双域同步：xihu.vip 😀 66U飞投：现场飞投 😀 66U客服：@xihu003 😀 66U娱乐：娱乐机器人 ————————————————————— 👌注：66U只做海外市场，从不涉及中国市场。 👌注：西港5星级实体赌场，为玩家保驾护航。 #付费广告 #置顶广
Showing the 12 most recent of 278 posts we hold for @polym8. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Citation-graph rank — 263,219 of 1,345,403entries in the measured graph. A weighted position computed from the forward and mention edges below — republished posts weigh more than named mentions — and recomputed periodically, over the whole graph. Published only as this ordinal position, never as a score: a position is a fact, and a score printed beside one channel’s name would read as a verdict this register does not make. The two counts beneath stay separate for the same reason mentions are never summed with forwards anywhere else on this page — a named-by count costs nothing to manufacture. The top 100 by this measure, or how it is computed.
Named by 8 registered channels — every channel on the register whose own posts have named this one, by its current username or any other username it currently holds, merged from two separately captured readings of the same fact so a namer caught by only one of them is not missed and a namer both caught is not counted twice. A username this channel has since dropped is not matched — that handle may belong to someone else now, and crediting today’s namer to yesterday’s owner would misattribute it.
Named by
Channels on the register whose posts name this channel's handle.
Names
Channels on the register whose handles appear in this channel's posts.
A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.
@polym8 named 3 handles that resolve to nothing today. That is a fact about the reference, not necessarily a fact about the handle’s history — see the two groups below.
Most of these may never have existed as a live channel at all.A handle a channel names can be a typo, an aspirational name nobody registered, or a channel that was already gone before this one ever mentioned it. Unless a row below is marked evidenced, all we know is that it references a handle that is not a live channel today — not that anything “died”. How this is measured.
We ourselves saw each of these resolve to a real page at some point before it went vacant — a genuine, evidenced change, not an inference from absence.
References a handle that is not a live channel — we have no record it ever was one.
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 14 August 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“Polymarket信息分享” (@polym8), 29,271 subscribers as measured 14 August 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/polym8.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.