🚨重大异动|特斯拉与SpaceX合并官宣概率升至53.5% 彭博报道SpaceX与特斯拉的合并谈判取得进展后,市场给“2027年2月28日前正式宣布合并”的押注从26.5%升到53.5%,一天涨了27.0个百分点。现在押“会”的以53.5%对46.5%略占上风,两边只差7.0个百分点,原本偏向“不会”的盘面被拉回到五五开附近。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184

Channel
Polymarket信息分享
@polym8
On this record: Topic · Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Posts · Citations · Handles named that no longer answer · Cite this entry
21,689subscribers
-10,713 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 10,000–31,623.
Register entry
| Telegram ID | -1001593149911 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @polym8 |
| Description | 🌍 联盟导航 @LM667788 💎 商务合作 @yh184 Polymarket|全球热点|预测市场 政治|金融|AI|体育|Crypto|突发事件 看市场正在押注什么 |
| Created | Between 1 August 2021 and 28 February 2023 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated. |
| First recorded | 7 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 12 November 2026 |
| Measurements held | 64 |
| Confirmed unchanged | 1 time, most recently 12 November 2026 |
| On Telegram | t.me/polym8 |
Topic
Crypto & trading — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 9 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 53% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and the other topics.
Growth
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026, 03:16 | 21,689 | -3,389 |
| 10 Nov 2026, 02:38 | 25,078 | -97 |
| 8 Nov 2026, 18:50 | 25,175 | -92 |
| 7 Nov 2026, 11:58 | 25,267 | -118 |
| 6 Nov 2026, 08:44 | 25,385 | -107 |
| 5 Nov 2026, 07:18 | 25,492 | -81 |
| 4 Nov 2026, 04:57 | 25,573 | -88 |
| 3 Nov 2026, 05:38 | 25,661 | -116 |
| 2 Nov 2026, 05:56 | 25,777 | -3,311 |
| 1 Nov 2026, 02:39 | 29,088 | -56 |
| 31 Oct 2026, 04:01 | 29,144 | -87 |
| 30 Oct 2026, 02:48 | 29,231 | -132 |
| 28 Oct 2026, 23:55 | 29,363 | -82 |
| 27 Oct 2026, 20:57 | 29,445 | -46 |
| 26 Oct 2026, 17:49 | 29,491 | -68 |
| 25 Oct 2026, 19:20 | 29,559 | -42 |
| 24 Oct 2026, 18:28 | 29,601 | -146 |
| 23 Oct 2026, 18:47 | 29,747 | -456 |
| 22 Oct 2026, 20:57 | 30,203 | -142 |
| 21 Oct 2026, 18:49 | 30,345 | first reading |
Engagement
3,085 posts held, back to 6 August 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 177 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
- ERR · 30 days
- 7.31%
- avg views ÷ 21,689 subscribers
- Avg views / post
- 1,590
- 960 posts measured
- Reaction rate
- —
- this channel exposes no reaction counts
- Posts in window
- 960
- of 3,085 held
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.
| Window | Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 13 November 2026 |
|---|---|
| Posts held | 3,085 (6 August 2026 – 13 November 2026) |
| Views total | 1,522,961 |
| Reactions total | — |
| Forwards / comments | not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated |
| Readings taken | 13 Nov 2026, 13:59 UTC |
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
What this channel posts
- Photos
- ≈758
- Videos
- ≈196
- Links
- ≈1,850
Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 13 November 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. A count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints these counters in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈142,000 means somewhere between 141,500 and 142,499.
- Video runtime
- 9s
- Average length
- 3s
Measured directly from 3 videos with a duration reading, out of the posts we hold for this channel — not this channel’s whole posting history, only the sample this register has actually read. An exact reading to the second, taken from the post itself rather than from Telegram’s own rounded chrome, so it carries no ≈ mark.
Recent posts
Telegram’s own ‘edited’ marker: 2 of 960 posts held from the last 30 days (0.208%) carried it when this register last read them. The marker says a post was changed after publishing, not what it said before — this register holds the earlier wording only where an edit fell between two of its own reads (see the edit ledger and how it is measured).
🚨重大异动|特迪·里内入选法国总统选举选票概率跌至30.5% 特迪·里内出现在2027年法国总统选举选票上的押注,从41.8%降到30.5%,一天少了11.3个百分点。现在押“会”的只剩30.5%,押“不会”的占到69.5%,两边相差39.0个百分点。此前一天,这一概率还在四成以上,如今已落到三成附近。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
✨✨✨✨📣📣📣📣📣📣 13+ 官方矩阵 · 80+ 官方社群 100W+ 用户覆盖 🌐 旗下核心矩阵: 1️⃣ 东南亚各国大事件矩阵 ☺️ 东南亚大事件频道 @yhxw1 ☺️各国官方社群 (共计8个社群) ☺️ 东南亚大事件 @dnydsj89 ☺️ 斯里兰卡 @TGDSJ89 ☺️ 老挝特区 @bx6685 ☺️ 柬埔寨 @jpzdsj898 ☺️ 菲律宾 @FLBDSJ89 ☺️ 泰国 @bx6687 ☺️ 缅甸 @bx6682 ☺️ 迪拜 @bx6684 2️⃣ 东南亚大事件矩阵 ☺️官方频道 @bx6680 ☺️官方社群 (共计8个社群) @bx66h @bx66j @bx66i @bx66v @bx66p @bx66g @bx66s @bx66r 3️⃣东南亚曝光吃瓜矩阵 ☺️ 官方频道 @yh105 ☺️ 官方社群 (共计7个社群) @bgcg2 @bgcg9 @bgcg7 @bg…
✅结果揭晓|Vitality没能赢下与MOUZ的BO3 11月13日我们发帖时,市场认为「Vitality赢下与MOUZ的BO3」的概率是 56%。 最终结果:没有发生。市场这次看走眼了 ❌ ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🚨重大异动|Anthropic最佳AI模型概率跌至9.5% 市场给Anthropic在2026年11月底拥有最佳AI模型的概率降到9.5%,24小时前还是19.5%,一天跌了10.0个百分点。押“不会”的升到90.5%,两边差81.0个百分点。这波重定价后,Anthropic在这个市场里只剩不到一成的胜算。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🔥热门赛事|快船主场迎战雷霆,市场给雷霆72% 11月14日11:30,快船主场对阵雷霆。快船目前2胜8负,近5场1胜4负;雷霆8胜4负,近5场3胜2负。本赛季两队已交手一次,雷霆108比101取胜。 快船方面,英格拉姆、尼德豪泽、比尔、乔丹·米勒均缺阵;雷霆方面,索伯、杰林·威廉姆斯、卡森·华莱士缺阵,阿杰·米切尔出战成疑。市场预测:雷霆胜72%|快船胜28%。 数据截至 19:45 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🧠异动解读|西班牙提前大选,PSOE胜选概率升至17.5% 路透报道西班牙11月提前大选后,市场给PSOE赢得最多席位的概率从15.5%升到17.5%,一天涨了2.0个百分点。押PSOE赢的只占17.5%,押不赢的仍有82.5%。这波重定价幅度不大,PSOE仍不被看好。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🔥热门预测|Gen.G更被看好,哔哩哔哩电竞胜率37.5% 哔哩哔哩电竞与Gen.G的BO5,市场给前者37.5%的胜率,Gen.G为62.5%,两边差25.0个百分点。过去24小时变化为0.0个百分点,接下来看哔哩哔哩电竞的胜率会不会向五成靠拢。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🎯大额下注|有人砸10.7万美元押G2让分胜 一个账户在G2对Falcons的让分盘口中押注G2(+1.5),投入10.7万美元,买入价63美分,相当于认为有63%的可能打出。该账户总体亏损约871.7万美元,目前市场给G2的定价为63.5美分。 账户:0x549b…c0ae ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
⚡️快讯|Predict.fun上线次日破10亿美元押注跌至47.4% 市场给“Predict.fun上线次日估值超过10亿美元”的押注从55.0%降到47.4%,一天跌7.6个百分点。押不会超过的升至52.6%,两边差5.2个百分点,看空方反超。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
💰聪明钱|近30天赚66.32万美元大户押利斯纳尔不会胜选 一位近30天赚66.32万美元的玩家,当前押42.49万美元在“大卫·利斯纳尔不会赢得2027年法国总统选举”上,没有同时押反方向。市场给“不会发生”方向的价格为83.2美分。这个仓位与市场价格同向,构成这次统计里最值得看的信号。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
🧠异动解读|俄乌能源停火押注跌至10.5% 路透报道乌克兰袭击让俄罗斯炼油能力少了30%;同期市场给11月30日前俄乌能源停火协议的押注从15.5%降到10.5%,一天跌5.0个百分点。俄乌刚达成换囚协议,但美方称信任不足拖住谈判。押不成的占89.5%。 ✅ Polymarket频道 @polym8 🌐 联盟导航 @LM667788 🐖 商务合作 @yh184
Showing the 12 most recent of 3,085 posts we hold for @polym8. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Mentions
Named by 10 registered channels — every channel on the register whose own posts have named this one, by its current username or any other username it currently holds, merged from two separately captured readings of the same fact so a namer caught by only one of them is not missed and a namer both caught is not counted twice. A username this channel has since dropped is not matched — that handle may belong to someone else now, and crediting today’s namer to yesterday’s owner would misattribute it.
Named by
Channels on the register whose posts name this channel's handle.
@XRQX1888 · 23,72229 posts云海联盟
@LM667788 · 94,92920 posts电竞赛事分析🎮
@qz8768 · 26,25019 posts生活研究所📅
@bx6683 · 21,26616 posts体育赛事分析⚽️
@tytd2 · 22,84812 posts加密货币crypto资讯
@jmhb1 · 21,68511 posts马达加斯加大事件🇲🇬
@bx66b · 20,0509 posts东南亚曝光吃瓜
@yh105 · 26,8356 posts马来西亚大事件🇲🇾
@mlxy80 · 23,9214 posts东南亚头条·大事件
@bx6680 · 24,4093 posts
Names
Channels on the register whose handles appear in this channel's posts.
@LM667788 · 94,9292,660 posts东南亚曝光吃瓜008
@bgcg5 · 2,96471 posts东南亚曝光吃瓜010
@bgcg87 · 3,23071 posts东南亚曝光吃瓜004
@bgcg9 · 1,93771 posts生活研究所📅
@bx6683 · 21,26671 posts金三角大事件🇱🇦
@bx6685 · 7,77171 posts泰国大事件🇹🇭
@bx6687 · 7,42271 posts生活研究认知提升005
@bx66aa · 2,63671 posts生活研究认知提升004
@bx66ee · 2,09071 posts东南亚大事件曝光吃瓜010
@bx66r · 2,70771 posts电竞赛事分析LOL LSK KPL
@djsj81 · 2,38871 posts电竞赛事分析LOL LSK KPL002
@djtd3 · 2,44571 posts电竞赛事分析LOL LSK KPL001
@djtd8 · 2,46471 posts电竞赛事分析LOL LSK KPL 003
@djtd86 · 2,51971 posts东南亚大事件·曝光·吃瓜·悬赏🌏
@dnydsj89 · 7,73671 posts加密货币crypto资讯001
@jmhb3 · 2,14771 posts加密货币资讯003
@jmhb6 · 2,71871 posts加密货币BTC ETH资讯005
@jmhb83 · 2,39671 posts马来西亚大事件🇲🇾
@MDDSJ89 · 8,71971 posts马达加斯加大事件非洲大事件001
@mdjsj5 · 2,23771 posts马来西亚吉隆坡大事件002
@mlxy82 · 3,17371 posts东南亚曝光吃瓜
@p123news · 9,07971 postsPolymarket预测市场005
@polym4 · 2,36271 postsPolymarket预测市场003
@polym7 · 2,48571 posts
A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.
Handles this channel named that no longer answer
- Dead references
- 3
- handles named in this channel’s posts, vacant today
- Evidenced gone
- 1
- we ourselves saw one of these resolve, at some point
- Never seen alive
- 2
- vacant every time we have ever looked
@polym8 named 3 handles that resolve to nothing today. That is a fact about the reference, not necessarily a fact about the handle’s history — see the two groups below.
Most of these may never have existed as a live channel at all. A handle a channel names can be a typo, an aspirational name nobody registered, or a channel that was already gone before this one ever mentioned it. Unless a row below is marked evidenced, all we know is that it references a handle that is not a live channel today — not that anything “died”. How this is measured.
Evidenced gone
We ourselves saw each of these resolve to a real page at some point before it went vacant — a genuine, evidenced change, not an inference from absence.
named in 8 posts, 8 August 2026 – 4 September 2026 · confirmed gone 13 October 2026 (two independent sightings — see how we confirm a dead handle)evidenced
Never seen alive
References a handle that is not a live channel — we have no record it ever was one.
named in 8 posts, 8 August 2026 – 4 September 2026
named in 8 posts, 8 August 2026 – 4 September 2026
Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 12 November 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“Polymarket信息分享” (@polym8), 21,689 subscribers as measured 12 November 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/polym8.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.