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Channel

礼物阁

@mike499

On this record: Topic · Observations · Channels linked by matching posts · Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Advertising · Posts · Citations · Cite this entry

3,201subscribers

-3,450 since we began measuring on 27 August 2026

Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 3,162–10,000.

Register entry

Telegram ID-1002270362897
TypeChannel
Username@mike499
CreatedBetween 1 September 2024 and 31 March 2025 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated.
First recorded27 August 2026
Last confirmed live9 November 2026
Measurements held20
Confirmed unchanged1 time, most recently 9 November 2026
On Telegramt.me/mike499

Topic

Gambling & betting — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 14 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 100% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and the other topics.

Observations

These are measurements, not verdicts. Each one below states something we counted, alongside the evidence it was counted from, so you can check it rather than take it. None of them is graded: every observation this register holds is recorded at severity 0, because the precision of the detectors behind them has not been measured yet, and a rating we cannot support is worse than none. Read each as a fact about the data, not as a judgement about the channel. How we measure.

Content that also appears on other registered channels

Posts published here appear in near-verbatim form on 1 other registered channel. This entry also forms a group of 2 channels linked by matching posts. The matching is on the text itself, not on Telegram’s forward marker, so it finds a copy whether or not it was labelled as one.

Matching posts — open both and compare (5 of the pairs behind the counts below)
Posted firstThenOverlapGap
@baoguang832/3659518 Aug 2026, 02:59 UTC@mike499/11505 · this entry26 Aug 2026, 00:20 UTC1.008 days
@baoguang832/3659618 Aug 2026, 02:59 UTC@mike499/11506 · this entry26 Aug 2026, 00:20 UTC1.008 days
@baoguang832/3705122 Aug 2026, 13:03 UTC@mike499/11515 · this entry26 Aug 2026, 13:02 UTC1.004 days
@baoguang832/3705222 Aug 2026, 13:03 UTC@mike499/11516 · this entry26 Aug 2026, 13:02 UTC1.004 days
@baoguang832/3721424 Aug 2026, 13:04 UTC@mike499/11500 · this entry25 Aug 2026, 13:12 UTC1.0024 hours
Channels this entry shares post bodies with, where at least one matching post pair has no forward credit between the two channels, or to a common source, recorded in our data
ChannelMatching postsText overlapTypical gapPublished first
@baoguang8325 (5/5 hand-verifiable sample passed)1.008 days@baoguang832 (5–0)

Text overlap is the Jaccard coefficient over the set of distinct three-word phrases in the two bodies: 1.00 is identical wording, and the threshold for counting a pair at all is 0.70. Candidates are generated by simhash LSH (4 x 16-bit bands, exact Hamming <= 3) verified against the bodies with Jaccard over the SET of distinct 3-word shingles. Published first counts which side of each matching pair carries the earlier timestamp — in this corpus, which is the limitation directly below.

What this cannot establish

MEASURED, DOMINANT ERROR SOURCE: a post ingested before 2026-08-06 may have carried a forward header that was not recorded. A 45-pair hand-check against live t.me pages found 14 (31%) where the live page shows a forward header naming the other channel and the database has none, plus 4 more (9%) naming a third party. The text match itself was wrong 0 times out of 45. Read attribution_capture.items_in_trusted_window before treating the unattributed count as a claim.

Telegram lets a channel forward a post with a header naming the source, and we only began reliably recording that header on 2026-08-06. 5 of the 5 matches recorded here fall after that date and carried no header when we read them. The rest predate reliable capture and are not evidence either way.

“Published first” means first in this corpus. We hold 18 comparable posts for this entry, running 25 August 2026 to 27 August 2026. A channel we have read one page deep will look younger than a neighbour we have read in full, and the order would flip with no change in the underlying facts.

The detector’s own notes on this observation, as it recorded them. Names in this_style are fields of the underlying evidence record, which the plain-English paragraphs above read out for this entry.

  • Verbatim republication has three causes and the text separates only two: a clone/mirror, unattributed copy-paste, or BOTH channels copying a common third source that neither attributes. The spread filter (content held by at most 8 channels) reduces the third and does not remove it.
  • 'Earliest' means earliest IN THIS CORPUS. A channel ingested one page deep will look younger than a neighbour ingested in full; corpus_coverage above is there to be checked before the direction is believed.
  • shared_verified_est extrapolates the sampled pass rate over the full narrow match count; sampled/passed are the numbers actually measured.
  • Absence of a forward header is not proof of intent: Telegram lets a channel disable forward attribution, and a credit written in the body is not parsed as attribution here (mention_edge_either_way above is the closest available signal).

Of the group of 2 channels, the one whose matching posts we hold earliest is @baoguang832. That is a statement about our reading window, not a claim of authorship.

Recorded under the key clone_copy, last confirmed 11 November 2026. An observation that a later pass no longer finds is cleared, and a cleared observation is removed from this page rather than being shown struck through — we do not keep publishing a claim we have withdrawn. Dispute an observation.

Channels linked by matching posts

This channel is in a group of 2 registered channels linked by matching posts. Links are found by comparing text fingerprints across every channel on the register.

Which channel, if either, published first is deliberately not shown in this list. “First” could only mean first in our own crawl, which depends on how deep we happened to reach into each channel’s history, not on when the content was actually first posted. Our one hand-check read 45 of the highest-confidence flagged pairs against the live Telegram pages. In 18 of them the live page showed a “Forwarded from” credit that our database had no record of, so reading that pair as an unattributed copy was wrong; the check did not measure who published first. This list is ordered by subscriber count, the same as every other listing on this site, never by which channel we think came first. Near-verbatim matching has several ordinary explanations besides copying — a channel mirroring itself, an unattributed repost, or two channels independently repeating the same wire story — and this measurement cannot tell those apart. How this is measured.

Growth

3,2016,6514,92627 August 2026 — 6,651 subscribers27 August 2026 — 6,651 subscribers28 August 2026 — 6,648 subscribers31 August 2026 — 6,627 subscribers3 September 2026 — 6,605 subscribers8 September 2026 — 3,627 subscribers12 September 2026 — 3,309 subscribers16 September 2026 — 5,199 subscribers30 September 2026 — 4,881 subscribers7 October 2026 — 4,829 subscribers13 October 2026 — 3,874 subscribers16 October 2026 — 3,800 subscribers19 October 2026 — 3,764 subscribers22 October 2026 — 3,675 subscribers25 October 2026 — 3,600 subscribers28 October 2026 — 3,531 subscribers31 October 2026 — 3,457 subscribers3 November 2026 — 3,435 subscribers6 November 2026 — 3,337 subscribers9 November 2026 — 3,201 subscribers27 August 20269 November 2026
20 measurements spanning 74 days, net -3,450. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 2,684–7,169 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded
Measured (UTC)SubscribersChange
9 Nov 2026, 09:513,201-136
6 Nov 2026, 08:193,337-98
3 Nov 2026, 10:313,435-22
31 Oct 2026, 16:463,457-74
28 Oct 2026, 20:493,531-69
25 Oct 2026, 23:013,600-75
22 Oct 2026, 14:143,675-89
19 Oct 2026, 18:113,764-36
16 Oct 2026, 16:273,800-74
13 Oct 2026, 17:403,874-955
7 Oct 2026, 15:204,829-52
30 Sept 2026, 21:374,881-318
16 Sept 2026, 13:555,199+1,890
12 Sept 2026, 09:583,309-318
8 Sept 2026, 03:163,627-2,978
3 Sept 2026, 09:026,605-22
31 Aug 2026, 11:356,627-21
28 Aug 2026, 04:256,648-3
27 Aug 2026, 15:006,651no change
27 Aug 2026, 14:456,651first reading

Engagement

20 posts held, back to 25 August 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 1 page of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.

Nothing published in the last 30 days. ERR and ER are rolling 30-day measures, so there is nothing to compute — we hold 20 posts for this entry, the most recent from 27 August 2026. An engagement rate over an empty window would be a number about nothing.

What this channel posts

Video runtime
3m 26s
Average length
16s

Measured directly from 13 videos with a duration reading, out of the posts we hold for this channel — not this channel’s whole posting history, only the sample this register has actually read. An exact reading to the second, taken from the post itself rather than from Telegram’s own rounded chrome, so it carries no ≈ mark.

Advertising

Ad load
10.0%
2 of 20 posts carry an ad marker
Regulatory tokens
0
none — marked by hashtag only
Median views · ads
525
over 2 measured posts
Median views · rest
506
over 18 measured posts

An ad marker, not a judgement about a post. A post is counted here because it carries one of two explicit markings: an erid token, which Russian law has required on paid placements since 2022 and which is issued against a specific advertising contract, or a #реклама / #ad hashtag in the body, which is the channel declaring it itself. The first is documentary; the second is a self-declaration and is weaker. No classifier reads the text and decides — nothing on this site guesses that a post is an advertisement.

This is a floor, and it can only ever be a floor. A channel that runs paid placements without marking them produces no marker for us to count, and an unmarked ad is indistinguishable from an ordinary post on the public surface. The ad load above therefore means “the share of posts that declared themselves”, never “the share of posts that were paid for”. A low figure is not evidence of a channel that runs few ads.

Both figures are medians, and no ratio between them is published. Each is a view reading that actually occurred on a post, picked by percentile_disc rather than averaged, so one viral post cannot move it and no interpolated value is invented between two readings. The sample on one side is under five posts, which is too thin to compare. The two figures are shown side by side with the count behind each, and deliberately not divided into a headline like “ads get x% fewer views” — an arithmetic that is easy to print and, at this sample size, means nothing.

Measured over the 20 most recent posts we hold, published 25 August 2026 to 27 August 2026. Views are the latest single reading held for each post, and any reading at or above 1,000 is rounded by Telegram to three significant figures.

Recent posts

27 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC486 viewsread 27 August 2026
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27 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC498 viewsread 27 August 2026
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27 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC493 viewsread 27 August 2026
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27 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC514 viewsread 27 August 2026
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27 Aug 2026, 11:23 UTC525 viewsread 27 August 2026
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27 Aug 2026, 03:21 UTC543 viewsread 27 August 2026
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27 Aug 2026, 03:19 UTC536 viewsread 27 August 2026
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27 Aug 2026, 03:19 UTC540 viewsread 27 August 2026
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26 Aug 2026, 13:02 UTC502 viewsread 27 August 2026
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26 Aug 2026, 13:02 UTC501 viewsread 27 August 2026
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Showing the 12 most recent of 20 posts we hold for @mike499. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.

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A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 9 November 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.

“礼物阁” (@mike499), 3,201 subscribers as measured 9 November 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/mike499.

Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.