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Channel

آرش صفری|سرمایه‌گذاری و تحلیل

@arashsafariiiiiiii

On this record: Topic · Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Reactions · Stars · Posts · Posts edited after publishing · Citations · Handles named that no longer answer · Cite this entry

32,644subscribers

+941 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026

Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 31,623–100,000.

Register entry

Telegram ID-1001380227148
TypeChannel
Username@arashsafariiiiiiii
Descriptionدر فضای پیچیده و پرریسک اقتصاد و سیاست ایران، واقعیت‌ها و نشانه‌ها را واکاوی می‌کنیم، اثرشان را بر بازارها و سرمایه شما توضیح می‌دهیم و موضوعات دشوار را با دقت، صداقت و زبان ساده به بینش و تصمیم قابل‌فهم تبدیل می‌کنیم وقت مشاوره؛@roadmap_investing
CreatedBetween 1 March 2018 and 31 July 2021 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated.
First recorded7 August 2026
Last confirmed live19 September 2026
Measurements held34
Confirmed unchanged1 time, most recently 19 September 2026
On Telegramt.me/arashsafariiiiiiii

Topic

Other / unclassifiable — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 9 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 58% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and why it has no browse page of its own yet.

Growth

31,66532,66832,166.57 August 2026 — 31,703 subscribers7 August 2026 — 31,703 subscribers8 August 2026 — 31,702 subscribers9 August 2026 — 31,691 subscribers10 August 2026 — 31,676 subscribers11 August 2026 — 31,665 subscribers12 August 2026 — 31,799 subscribers13 August 2026 — 31,873 subscribers14 August 2026 — 31,844 subscribers16 August 2026 — 31,839 subscribers17 August 2026 — 31,811 subscribers18 August 2026 — 31,794 subscribers19 August 2026 — 31,776 subscribers20 August 2026 — 31,786 subscribers21 August 2026 — 31,776 subscribers23 August 2026 — 31,768 subscribers24 August 2026 — 31,784 subscribers25 August 2026 — 31,795 subscribers26 August 2026 — 31,812 subscribers27 August 2026 — 31,808 subscribers28 August 2026 — 31,818 subscribers29 August 2026 — 31,823 subscribers30 August 2026 — 31,971 subscribers31 August 2026 — 31,968 subscribers1 September 2026 — 31,949 subscribers2 September 2026 — 32,028 subscribers4 September 2026 — 32,081 subscribers6 September 2026 — 32,052 subscribers9 September 2026 — 32,171 subscribers11 September 2026 — 32,514 subscribers13 September 2026 — 32,530 subscribers15 September 2026 — 32,640 subscribers17 September 2026 — 32,668 subscribers19 September 2026 — 32,644 subscribers32,6447 August 202619 September 2026
34 measurements spanning 43 days, net +941. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 31,515–32,818 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded, most recent 20 of 34
Measured (UTC)SubscribersChange
19 Sept 2026, 15:0032,644-24
17 Sept 2026, 04:1632,668+28
15 Sept 2026, 06:0032,640+110
13 Sept 2026, 17:0132,530+16
11 Sept 2026, 22:1532,514+343
9 Sept 2026, 13:5632,171+119
6 Sept 2026, 07:5532,052-29
4 Sept 2026, 03:1532,081+53
2 Sept 2026, 19:5932,028+79
1 Sept 2026, 15:1431,949-19
31 Aug 2026, 18:1231,968-3
30 Aug 2026, 15:5331,971+148
29 Aug 2026, 18:4431,823+5
28 Aug 2026, 16:3331,818+10
27 Aug 2026, 14:1931,808-4
26 Aug 2026, 14:3431,812+17
25 Aug 2026, 17:3231,795+11
24 Aug 2026, 17:5931,784+16
23 Aug 2026, 00:2931,768-8
21 Aug 2026, 17:1931,776first reading

Engagement

116 posts held, back to 1 August 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 81 pages of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.

ERR · 30 days
46.9%
avg views ÷ 32,644 subscribers
Avg views / post
15,300
62 posts measured
Reaction rate
2.34%
reactions ÷ views · ER floor
Posts in window
65
of 116 held

ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.

ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views — note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.

What these figures were computed from
WindowRolling 30 days · latest post in window 24 September 2026
Posts held116 (1 August 2026 – 24 September 2026)
Views total950,070
Reactions total22,198
Forwards / commentsnot exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated
Readings taken25 Sept 2026, 06:52 UTC

Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.

Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.

Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.

What this channel posts

Photos
≈1,300
Videos
≈184
Links
≈275

Lifetime counters from Telegram’s own channel header, read 25 September 2026 — not the date at the top of this page, which is when the subscriber count was last read. A count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints these counters in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈142,000 means somewhere between 141,500 and 142,499.

Video runtime
11m 33s
Average length
1m 39s

Measured directly from 7 videos with a duration reading, out of the posts we hold for this channel — not this channel’s whole posting history, only the sample this register has actually read. An exact reading to the second, taken from the post itself rather than from Telegram’s own rounded chrome, so it carries no ≈ mark.

Reaction mix

45,600 reactions across 113 posts, in 51 distinct kinds. The most used accounts for 52.6% of them.

Every reaction kind recorded on the sample, most used first
ReactionCountShareShare, drawn
❤23,96952.6%
👍13,89330.5%
👏2,1204.65%
💔9142.00%
👎8251.81%
🤣7851.72%
🔥6721.47%
😐3550.779%
😢3470.761%
😭3420.75%
🤷‍♂2350.515%
🕊1630.357%
😱1300.285%
🤨920.202%
😁780.171%
😍650.143%
🤬650.143%
🤯570.125%
💯540.118%
👀510.112%
31 further kinds3880.851%

No sentiment is inferred, and none should be read in. This table is ordered by count and by nothing else. Emoji do not carry stable meaning across languages or communities — 🙏 is thanks in one channel and mourning in another — so we publish which ones were pressed and how often, and pass no judgement on what an audience meant by them.

Precision. Telegram publishes reaction counts per emoji and short-forms each one — 4.34K, 1.2M — so any single kind at or above 1,000 reaches us at three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. The shares above are ratios of those figures and carry the same error. This is also why the total here can differ slightly from a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page: both are sums of the same rounded parts, taken over samples with different edges.

Coverage. Reactions were read on 113 of the 116 sampled posts in this sample. Summed by Telegram’s own count on each post — not by adding up the per-emoji breakdown above — those same posts carry 45,600 reactions in total: the kind of figure the paragraph above means by “a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page”.

Measured over the 116 most recent posts we hold, published 1 August 2026 to 24 September 2026, using the newest reading held for each. Telegram Stars are excluded: they are a payment, not a reaction, and they have their own section.

Telegram Stars

Stars received
15
across the posts below
Posts paid on
9
of 113 we hold a reading for · 8%
Most on one post
6
single highest reading

A paid reaction is a reader spending Telegram Stars — bought with money — on a post by @arashsafariiiiiiii. Telegram publishes the count on the public post preview alongside ordinary reactions, and this register reads it there. It is the only figure on this site that measures money moving rather than attention.

Stars are not reactions, and the two are never added. They are rendered in the same strip on Telegram and counted in the same shape, but one is a tap and the other is a purchase. The reaction totals and the engagement rate elsewhere on this page exclude every figure in this section, and no rate here is computed against a reaction count.

This is not revenue, and we publish no currency figure. What a Star costs a reader and what it pays a channel are different numbers, Telegram takes a share we cannot observe, and the terms have changed. Converting a Star count into money would be an estimate dressed as a measurement, so the count is where we stop.

Counted over the 116 most recent posts we hold for this entry, published 1 August 2026 to 24 September 2026. Star counts above 1,000 reach us in Telegram’s short form and carry the same three-significant-figure rounding as everything else on this page.

Recent posts

24 Sept 2026, 14:58 UTC≈9,030 views648 reactionsread 25 September 2026

بالاخره تونستم تو ۴۰ دقیقه پادکست این هفته آنچیزی که در این ۲ ماه نوشتم رو باز‌کنم، بیشتر تمرکزم این بود که‌ گره ذهنی بچه‌ها اوکی بشه

❤500👍119👎9🥰5😁5🤣3🤨2🤩2

23 Sept 2026, 20:37 UTC≈12,700 views616 reactionsread 25 September 2026

بدترین سوگیری برای یک تحلیلگر و سرمایه‌گذار سوگیری تاییده، یعنی شما دائما دنبال شواهدی باشی که چیزی که فکر میکنی درسته رو تایید کنه، مثالش رو در کسانی میبینم که یک ساله مداوم در حال دنبال کردن فروپاشی اقتصاد آمریکا هستند، کسی که با ابزار تفکر انتقادی خودش رو مسلح کرده باشه، هر لحظه آماده پذیرش خطا، برگشت از مسیر اشتباه و حرکت در مسیر صحیحه….

❤408👍157👏31👎7💯7🌚4💋1🤣1

23 Sept 2026, 18:14 UTC≈13,600 views593 reactionsread 25 September 2026

جالبه یکی برام نوشته هفته پیش چرا پس گفتی بازار سهام رو بفروشید 😁، خب بامزه از روزی که گفتم بازار ۱۵ درصد ریخته و حالا موقعیت جدید پیش اومده…. پادکست فردا تصویریه و از دست ندید…

❤372👍134😁39👎31👏10⚡3💋2💯2

23 Sept 2026, 18:12 UTC≈13,400 views425 reactionsread 25 September 2026

امیدوارم بعد این همه مدت این پست‌ها درک بشه، مثلاچشم انداز پاییز با تحلیل ۱۵ روز آتی متفاوته و این جزو بدیهایته…

❤315👍75👏17👎8🤣4🔥3😁2💋1

23 Sept 2026, 18:10 UTC≈13,700 views438 reactionsread 25 September 2026
Photo

📊آغاز #مهرماه و توصیه‌ها و تحلیل‌های اقتصادی در شرایط بسیار پیچیده پیش رو؛ ✅چشم‌انداز ما در فصل پاییز؛ احتمالا شاهد یک اتفاق بزرگ چه در سمت جنگ چه توافق خواهیم بود. ✅احتمال #جنگ در این‌ماه ۳۰درصد، احتمال شروع مذاکرات ۲۰ درصد و ادامه وضعیت موجود۵۰درصد. ✅#طلا در کانال ۲۴ یا ۲۵ برای مهر براساس مدل‌های ما ارزش خرید ندارد، حداکثر ۷۰ و حداقل ۴۰ درصد سبدطلایی رو در سبد رعایت کنید و موضوعات دیگه رو فراموش کنید. ✅احتمال کاهش …

👍244❤156🔥14👎9🤣7👏4💋3💯1

21 Sept 2026, 19:17 UTC≈16,300 views481 reactionsread 25 September 2026
Photo

‼️آخرین بانک‌ها و آخرین ایرلاین‌ها هم در حال اتمام کار با ایران هستند، محاصره جلوه دیگری به خودش میگیره و فرآیندی که از شهریور شروع شد وحشتناک تر‌ میشه، همزمان اقتصاد نحیف ایران ۱۰ درصد کوچیک‌تر شده و حالا به شما میگم که فرصتی نمونده و 🔴طی ۷ روز آینده تکلیف آینده رویارویی‌ها مشخص خواهد شد، فقط یک شانس کم وجود دارد و البته در تحلیل نهایی بنظرم ترامپ قطعا میخواهد موضوع ایران را سریعا حل کند…. @arashsafariiiiiii✅

🔥201❤117😢60👍43😭26🤷‍♂13👎10🕊5

20 Sept 2026, 12:36 UTC≈20,500 views451 reactionsread 25 September 2026

اتفاقی دقیقا شبیه به کرونا اما از جنس دیگر برای زدن ترامپ توسط اروپایی‌ها و بطور‌کلی‌جریان چپ جهانی رخ داده… جزئیات رو امشب صحبت میکنم اما این اسلاید یکبار دیگه مفصل بخونید….

❤291👍86😐35😭20👎8😈4💯2🤨2

20 Sept 2026, 07:19 UTC≈19,900 views332 reactionsread 25 September 2026
Photo

‼️در پستی که در خصوص وضعیت روسیه وارتباط این زنجیره اتفاقات به اوضاع این روزهای ما مطرح شد نکته تحلیل مهمی وجود داشت، انتظار تحولات ‌ها بعد از دیدار با رییس سازمان سیا و بعد از آن مذاکرات در مسکو رو داشتم و امروز به یک چند‌ نکته که برام تار و غیر شفاف بود در خصوص پازل‌های بازی این‌روزهای جهان پی بردم….. استوری ‌های امروز داستان رو کمی باز‌تر میکنم…. @arashsafariiiiiiii✅

❤248👍49👏10😢6👎4😁4🔥3🤝3

19 Sept 2026, 09:36 UTC≈17,700 views271 reactionsread 25 September 2026
Photo

‼️این هفته وضعیت تحولات رو باید خیلی دقیق رصد کرد، آن‌چیزی که در حال رقم خوردنه آینده اتفاقات رو رقم خواهد زد… 🔴در این تحلیل سعی شد وضعیت پیش رو وچرایی برخی تحلیل‌ها رو آپیدت کنیم…. حتما پادکست این هفته رو گوش بدید….. @arashsafariiiiiiii✅

❤211👍38👏13🤣4💯2😱2🗿1

19 Sept 2026, 09:36 UTC≈18,700 views212 reactionsread 25 September 2026
Photo

‼️این هفته وضعیت تحولات رو باید خیلی دقیق رصد کرد، آن‌چیزی که در حال رقم خوردنه آینده اتفاقات رو رقم خواهد زد… 🔴در این تحلیل سعی شد وضعیت پیش رو وچرایی برخی تحلیل‌ها رو آپیدت کنیم…. حتما پادکست این هفته رو گوش بدید….. @arashsafariiiiiiii✅

👍127❤65👏9🔥6🤣4💯1

18 Sept 2026, 15:51 UTC≈15,100 views156 reactionsread 23 September 2026
File

File, posted without a caption

❤116👎15🤣10❤‍🔥7😭4🔥3🥴1

17 Sept 2026, 19:12 UTC≈15,900 views150 reactionsread 23 September 2026

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DdZjfTERCSO/?stkn=MTd0azBheXNmZmU3dA== این پست رو از دست ندید

❤129👍15🤣4⚡2

Showing the 12 most recent of 116 posts we hold for @arashsafariiiiiiii. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.

Posts edited after publishing

@arashsafariiiiiiii edited 1 post after it first published — the same permalink now carries different wording than the one this register originally read, caught because our own crawl held a copy of the earlier text.

An edit is not deception. Typo fixes, price updates and corrections look exactly like this too — this register can tell you the wording changed and when, not why. How this is measured.

First edit seen
26 August 2026
Most recent edit
26 August 2026

Mentions

Names

Channels on the register whose handles appear in this channel's posts.

A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.

Cite this entry

A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 19 September 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.

“آرش صفری|سرمایه‌گذاری و تحلیل” (@arashsafariiiiiiii), 32,644 subscribers as measured 19 September 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/arashsafariiiiiiii.

Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.