#Bitcoin — Bearish Bias The current market structure still suggests downside potential in my view. My primary scenario is a continuation of the correction toward lower levels, unless price breaks and holds above the invalidation zone, which would invalidate the bearish thesis. This is a scenario, not a certainty. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ @RezaMacroEdge

Channel
Macro & Markets | Reza Ghanipour
@RezaMacroEdge
On this record: Growth · Engagement · Posts · Citations · Cite this entry
37subscribers
+2 since we began measuring on 6 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of Under 1,000.
Register entry
| Telegram ID | -1003677709129 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @RezaMacroEdge |
| Created | Between 1 December 2025 and 31 May 2026— estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated. |
| First recorded | 10 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 13 August 2026 |
| Measurements held | 3 |
| Confirmed unchanged | 1 time, most recently 13 August 2026 |
| On Telegram | t.me/RezaMacroEdge |
Growth
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2026, 07:26 | 37 | +2 |
| 10 Aug 2026, 23:02 | 35 | no change |
| 6 Aug 2026, 16:42 | 35 | first reading |
Engagement
20 posts held, back to 12 June 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 1 pageof Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
- ERR · 30 days
- 38.7%
- avg views ÷ 37 subscribers
- Avg views / post
- 14.3
- 3 posts measured
- Reaction rate
- —
- this channel exposes no reaction counts
- Posts in window
- 3
- of 20 held
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views— note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.
| Window | Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 10 August 2026 |
|---|---|
| Posts held | 20 (12 June 2026 – 10 August 2026) |
| Views total | 43 |
| Reactions total | — |
| Forwards / comments | not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated |
| Readings taken | 10 Aug 2026, 23:02 UTC |
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
Recent posts
So far, with 88% of S&P 500 companies having reported their Q2 earnings, year-over-year earnings growth has reached an astonishing 50.4%. To put that number into perspective, analysts had previously expected earnings growth of roughly 23%. That means actual earnings growth is now more than twice the original estimate. If this trend holds, the S&P 500 will record its second consecutive quarter of earnings growth abov…
Over the past decade, every major fiat currency has lost more than 98% of its value against Bitcoin. The Japanese yen recorded the worst performance, declining by approximately 99.4% versus Bitcoin. The Swiss franc performed the best among major fiat currencies—yet it still lost nearly 98.8% of its value relative to Bitcoin. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ @RezaMacroEdge
If you only look at the price chart, you might think gold's bull market is over. But the gold ETF data tells a different story. Since February 2026, gold prices have fallen by about 16%, while total gold ETF holdings have declined by only 3%. That suggests this isn't a broad investor exodus. In a typical bear market, it's not just prices that fall—investors also sell aggressively and capital leaves the market. So f…
Money printing is not neutral. When an economy isn't generating real growth in goods and services, creating new money doesn't create new wealth—it simply redistributes existing wealth. Those who receive newly created money first can spend it before prices adjust. By the time that money spreads through the economy, prices have risen, leaving people with fixed incomes or those who receive the new money last with less …
Since 1900, every major government-issued currency has lost purchasing power relative to gold. For the first time in history, all major currencies are fiat—backed by neither a commodity standard nor strict limits on money creation. But you don't have to rely solely on a fiat system; you can choose your own personal gold standard. Since 2010, central banks have been net buyers of more than 7,000 tonnes of gold, whil…
This chart presents one of the most interesting long-term valuation models for Bitcoin, based on the Power Law. Unlike models such as Stock-to-Flow (the one I discussed in my previous analysis), which focus primarily on Bitcoin's supply, the Power Law model assumes that as the Bitcoin network grows over time, its price tends to fluctuate within a well-defined logarithmic channel. The blue line represents Bitcoin's …
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ @RezaMacroEdge
This chart is frequently referenced in macroeconomics, but interpreting it isn't always straightforward. So what does it actually show? It measures how far the real price of Brent crude oil has deviated from its long-term trend. Notice the word real. The chart uses inflation-adjusted oil prices rather than nominal prices. A barrel of oil priced at $100 in 2022 does not have the same purchasing power as a $100 barre…
Surge in energy prices suggests high probability of recession ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ @RezaMacroEdge
ADAUSDT ⚠️long inter: 0/1500 tp: 0/1590 - 0/1635 - 0/1725 - 0/1950 risk free: 0/1545 sl: 0/1455 ⚠️ risk: 1% ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ @ScalpTradingForex
✅ +10%
Showing the 12 most recent of 20 posts we hold for @RezaMacroEdge. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Citation-graph rank
Citation-graph rank — 80,455 of 1,550,220entries in the measured graph. A weighted position computed from the forward and mention edges below — republished posts weigh more than named mentions — and recomputed periodically, over the whole graph. Published only as this ordinal position, never as a score: a position is a fact, and a score printed beside one channel’s name would read as a verdict this register does not make. The two counts beneath stay separate for the same reason mentions are never summed with forwards anywhere else on this page — a named-by count costs nothing to manufacture. The top 100 by this measure, or how it is computed.
Forward network
Republished by
Channels on the register that have forwarded this channel's posts into their own feed.
Republishes
Channels on the register whose posts this channel has forwarded.
Built only from forwarded posts we have actually read, on both sides. Coverage is early and deliberately incomplete: a missing link means we have not read the post that would prove it, never that the relationship does not exist. Counts are distinct forwarded posts observed, so they only ever go up as we read more.
Mentions
Named by 1 registered channel — every channel on the register whose own posts have named this one, by its current username or any other username it currently holds, merged from two separately captured readings of the same fact so a namer caught by only one of them is not missed and a namer both caught is not counted twice. A username this channel has since dropped is not matched — that handle may belong to someone else now, and crediting today’s namer to yesterday’s owner would misattribute it.
Named by
Channels on the register whose posts name this channel's handle.
Names
Channels on the register whose handles appear in this channel's posts.
A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.
Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 13 August 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“Macro & Markets | Reza Ghanipour” (@RezaMacroEdge), 37 subscribers as measured 13 August 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/RezaMacroEdge.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.