Astra 进入客户预览,聪明钱预测 GPT-6 10 月前发布 在预测市场 Polymarket 上,1 名聪明钱在「GPT-6 会在 10 月前发布吗?」投入 $587「是」,平均买入概率为 22.1%,目前「是」概率为 24.5%。 youngcheese 投入 $587,与本市场最佳相关板块为AI模型发布,板块净盈利 $5.5k。其在该板块共 18 笔已结算交易的胜率为 12/18(67%),其中买入价小于 $0.8 且卖出价大于 $0.95 的交易共 8 笔。相近成本价区间($0.251-$0.3)内,其历史投入金额中位数为 $2.3k。 时代杂志 26 日报道,OpenAI 已经向数十名重要客户的高管展示 Astra。演示中的 16 个智能体共同拆解研究级数学问题,随后协调工作并整理证明。Astra 还在多个桌面软件中完成创建和编辑任务。OpenAI 将 Astra 称为下一款重要模型,目前没有确认该模型会以 …

Channel
PolyBeats
@PolyBeats_Bot
On this record: Growth · Engagement · Reactions · Posts · Citations · Cite this entry
9,795subscribers
-70 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 3,162–10,000.
Register entry
| Telegram ID | -1003256236695 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @PolyBeats_Bot |
| Created | Between 1 October 2025 and 31 January 2026— estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated. |
| First recorded | 7 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 29 August 2026 |
| Measurements held | 9 |
| Confirmed unchanged | 1 time, most recently 29 August 2026 |
| On Telegram | t.me/PolyBeats_Bot |
Growth
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026, 13:28 | 9,795 | -9 |
| 26 Aug 2026, 09:32 | 9,804 | -9 |
| 23 Aug 2026, 07:47 | 9,813 | -9 |
| 20 Aug 2026, 02:55 | 9,822 | -11 |
| 17 Aug 2026, 11:42 | 9,833 | -4 |
| 14 Aug 2026, 00:26 | 9,837 | -15 |
| 10 Aug 2026, 23:41 | 9,852 | -12 |
| 8 Aug 2026, 02:47 | 9,864 | -1 |
| 7 Aug 2026, 18:16 | 9,865 | first reading |
Engagement
164 posts held, back to 6 August 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 34 pagesof Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
- ERR · 30 days
- 2.59%
- avg views ÷ 9,795 subscribers
- Avg views / post
- 254
- 161 posts measured
- Reaction rate
- 0.338%
- reactions ÷ views · ER floor
- Posts in window
- 164
- of 164 held
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views— note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate. It is computed over the 20 of 161 measured posts that carry a reaction reading, and over those same posts' views.
| Window | Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 28 August 2026 |
|---|---|
| Posts held | 164 (6 August 2026 – 28 August 2026) |
| Views total | 40,853 |
| Reactions total | 18 |
| Forwards / comments | not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated |
| Readings taken | 29 Aug 2026, 05:02 UTC |
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
Reaction mix
18 reactions across 15 posts, in 3 distinct kinds. The most used accounts for 77.8% of them.
| Reaction | Count | Share | Share, drawn |
|---|---|---|---|
| ❤ | 14 | 77.8% | |
| 🔥 | 3 | 16.7% | |
| 👎 | 1 | 5.56% |
No sentiment is inferred, and none should be read in. This table is ordered by count and by nothing else. Emoji do not carry stable meaning across languages or communities — 🙏 is thanks in one channel and mourning in another — so we publish which ones were pressed and how often, and pass no judgement on what an audience meant by them.
Precision. Telegram publishes reaction counts per emoji and short-forms each one — 4.34K, 1.2M — so any single kind at or above 1,000 reaches us at three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. The shares above are ratios of those figures and carry the same error. This is also why the total here can differ slightly from a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page: both are sums of the same rounded parts, taken over samples with different edges.
Coverage. Reactions were read on 20 of the 164 sampled posts in this sample. Summed by Telegram’s own count on each post — not by adding up the per-emoji breakdown above — those same posts carry 18reactions in total: the kind of figure the paragraph above means by “a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page”.
Measured over the 164 most recent posts we hold, published 6 August 2026 to 28 August 2026, using the newest reading held for each. Telegram Stars are excluded: they are a payment, not a reaction, and they have their own section.
Recent posts
巴西大选进入电视战,聪明钱预测总统人选 在预测市场 Polymarket 上,4 名聪明钱买入「弗拉维奥·博索纳罗会赢得 2026 年巴西总统选举吗?」,目前「是」概率为 35.6%。 账户1 与本市场最佳相关板块为世界宏观,板块净盈利 $224k。其在该板块共 43 笔已结算交易的胜率为 35/43(81%),其中买入价小于 $0.8 且卖出价大于 $0.95 的交易共 17 笔。 账户2 与本市场最佳相关板块为世界选举,板块净盈利 $96.6k。其在该板块共 201 笔已结算交易的胜率为 98/201(49%),其中买入价小于 $0.8 且卖出价大于 $0.95 的交易共 65 笔。本笔投入为其相近成本价区间内历史投入金额中位数的 47.7 倍。 账户3 与本市场最佳相关板块为政治,板块净盈利 $33.2k。其在该板块共 419 笔已结算交易的胜率为 191/419(46%),其中买入价小于 $0.8 且卖出价大于 $0…
赌哥放话挑战 Polymarket 榜一大哥,随后 12 笔仓位亏损近千万美元 Djdjdjekekek 自 6 月注册 Polymarket 以来至 8 月 12 日期间盈利超 +$2.2m,且收益曲线显示其资金规模逐步爬升,属于高质量稳定盈利的聪明钱画像。 8 月 12 日至 13 日,Djdjdjekekek 在 CS2 电竞世界杯、Dota 2 国际邀请赛、棒球比赛中连续失利,导致三天期间净亏损 -$3.14m。 但他没有停手。8 月 20 日后,账户转向 Dota 2 国际邀请赛淘汰赛与 CS2 电竞世界杯淘汰赛,通过 4 笔预测获利超 +$7m。本轮大幅盈利将其账户 PnL 从 -$831k 拉升至 +$6.4m,相当于 Polymarket 盈利总榜第 17 名。 拿到大结果后,8 月 25 日,Djdjdjekekek 在 X 上公开点名总榜第一的 swisstony,并称「Swisstony 在第一名待…
PolyBeats pinned a photo
特朗普拒绝恢复美伊谈判,聪明钱却预测美国 9 月 7 日前结束对伊朗的海上封锁 在预测市场 Polymarket 上,1 名聪明钱在「美国会在 9 月 7 日前宣布结束对伊朗的海上封锁吗?」投入 $3.5k「是」,平均买入概率为 12.0%,目前「是」概率为 5.5%。 Warren-Buffett 投入 $3.5k,与本市场最佳相关板块为特朗普,板块净盈利 $172k。其在该板块共 596 笔已结算交易的胜率为 426/596(71%),其中买入价小于 $0.8 且卖出价大于 $0.95 的交易共 104 笔。相近成本价区间($0.051-$0.2)内,其历史投入金额中位数为 $379。 27 日,特朗普表示美国目前没有与伊朗对话,也不寻求举行会面。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特称,美国将继续执行针对伊朗的经济施压行动,直至伊朗愿意进行有意义的谈判。 美国财政部 24 日启动「经济孤立行动」,扩大数字资产、科技、黄金、航空…
2 名新账户预测以色列下任总理,潜在盈利超 20 倍 在预测市场 Polymarket 上,2 名新账户买入冷门人选成为以色列选举后的下一任总理。由于该竞选人获选概率极低,潜在回报超过 20 倍。 订阅BlockBeats会员可查看完整预测市场新闻内容,可解锁完整账户画像、异常分仓操作、板块盈利分析、链上资金追踪、相关新闻独家内容,让你对全球新闻的动察快人一步。 如需订阅BlockBeats会员请添加 @PolyBeatsVip_Bot,支付成功后将自动发送频道链接 --------------------------------- 让你更早看到未来,关注 @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
白宫和 CFTC 接连站台,新账户预测 Clarity 法案于年内通过 在预测市场 Polymarket 上,1 名新账户在「《Clarity 法案》是否会在今年内签署成为法律」投入 $35.7k「是」,平均买入概率为 18.0%,目前「是」概率为 15.0%。 参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩已在 8 月 8 日提交程序动议,参议院返会后将先表决是否进入法案辩论;该程序表决需要 60 票,但即使通过,也不等于法案已经在参议院获通过。众议院版本此前已通过,参议院银行委员会也已在 5 月以 15 比 9 推进文本,但完整参议院尚未完成表决。 「是」方的逻辑是:白宫、CFTC 与加密行业都在推动法案,若 9 月 15 日跨过 60 票程序门槛,参议院随后完成表决;若通过文本与众议院版本一致或能快速协调,法案仍有机会在今年内送交特朗普签字。 「否」方的逻辑则更贴近当前 85% 的市场定价:伦理条款、反洗钱与非法金融防护、以及参议院农…
今晚沃什首次演讲,FOMC 聪明钱预测 9 月利率不变 在预测市场 Polymarket 上,1 名聪明钱在「美联储在 2026 年 9 月会议后是否保持利率上限不变?」投入 $77.8k「是」,平均买入概率为 62.2%,目前「是」概率为 68.5%。 -nkt- 投入 $77.8k,与本市场最佳相关板块为美联储FOMC,板块净盈利 $30.5k。其在该板块共 8 笔已结算交易的胜率为 7/8(88%),其中买入价小于 $0.8 且卖出价大于 $0.95 的交易共 1 笔。 美联储主席凯文·沃什将于今晚发表首次杰克逊霍尔演讲,市场关注他是否释放 9 月 15–16 日会议的政策信号。沃什此前承诺推动通胀回到 2%,但尚未表明支持维持利率、加息或为降息留出空间。 美国经济分析局数据显示,7 月 PCE 通胀同比上涨 3.7%,核心 PCE 上涨 3.3%,均明显高于 2% 目标;实际个人消费支出未增长,个人收入环比增长 …
卡塔尔与巴基斯坦重启美伊斡旋,聪明钱买入区间组合策略预测双方会晤时间 在预测市场 Polymarket 上,1 名聪明钱在「美伊外交会晤于何时进行?」交易事件中,同时买入「10 月前」的「否」和「2027.4.1前」的「是」。 Parz1vaI 投入 $31k,与本市场最佳相关板块为伊朗,板块净盈利 $247k。其在该板块共 362 笔已结算交易的胜率为 256/362(71%),其中买入价小于 $0.8 且卖出价大于 $0.95 的交易共 63 笔。相近成本价区间($0.601-$0.75)内,其历史投入金额中位数为 $5.4k。 由于两个仓位持有份额均为 21k,该组合可视为投入 $30.9k 预测美伊将在 2026.10.1 - 2027.3.31 期间进行会晤: 若会晤发生在该区间之前,「否」仓位归零,该组合亏损 $9.3k; 若发生在该区间后,「是」仓位归零,该组合亏损 $9.7k; 若会务发生在该区间内,两个仓…
美元走弱,流动性预期升温,比特币聪明钱预测年内走势 在预测市场 Polymarket 上,1 名聪明钱买入名聪明钱在「比特币会在今年内达到 $95k 吗?」投入,目前「是」概率为 38.0%。 账户1 与本市场最佳相关板块为加密货币价格,板块净盈利 $6.2k。其在该板块共 102 笔已结算交易的胜率为 77/102(75%),其中买入价小于 $0.8 且卖出价大于 $0.95 的交易共 30 笔。本笔投入为其相近成本价区间内历史投入金额中位数的 12.9 倍。 订阅BlockBeats会员可查看完整预测市场新闻内容,可解锁完整账户画像、异常分仓操作、板块盈利分析、链上资金追踪、相关新闻独家内容,让你对全球新闻的动察快人一步。 如需订阅BlockBeats会员请添加 @PolyBeatsVip_Bot,支付成功后将自动发送频道链接 --------------------------------- 让你更早看到未来,关注…
乌克兰调精锐指挥官加固堡垒带,聪明钱预测俄军年内不会占领 Kostyantynivka 全部地区 在预测市场 Polymarket 上,1 名聪明钱在「俄罗斯会在今年内占领 Kostyantynivka 全部地区吗?」投入 $2.9k「否」,平均买入概率为 48.0%,目前「是」概率为 48.5%。 GoriIIa 投入 $2.9k,与本市场最佳相关板块为政治,板块净盈利 $511k。其在该板块共 226 笔已结算交易的胜率为 169/226(75%),其中买入价小于 $0.8 且卖出价大于 $0.95 的交易共 33 笔。相近成本价区间($0.401-$0.45)内,其历史投入金额中位数为 $6.4k。 Kostiantynivka 位于顿涅茨克州,是乌克兰东部「堡垒带」南端的重要交通和工业城市。战争研究所 26 日表示,俄军继续向城区及周边派遣小股步兵。乌军仍控制城市北部和西北部,部分乌军在市中心及东南部活动。俄军主力…
伊朗称分配安排已经谈妥,聪明钱预测霍尔木兹协议 4 天内达成 在预测市场 Polymarket 上,1 名聪明钱在「伊朗-阿曼霍尔木兹协议会在 9 月前达成吗?」投入 $1.0k「是」,平均买入概率为 16.0%,目前「是」概率为 11.5%。 BrightStars 投入 $1.0k,与本市场最佳相关板块为伊朗,板块净盈利 $756k。其在该板块共 215 笔已结算交易的胜率为 130/215(60%),其中买入价小于 $0.8 且卖出价大于 $0.95 的交易共 21 笔。相近成本价区间($0.101-$0.25)内,其历史投入金额中位数为 $9.5k。 根据事件规则,协议需要由两国共同宣布,或由两国分别明确宣布,只有在公告明确其为两国共同接受并正式生效的管理协议时,才可能符合结算「是」的条件。目前,双方已公布分阶段框架。伊朗称管理份额和收入分配已取得可接受结果,但阿曼尚未宣布完整的双边管理协议。 阿曼外交部 25 …
Showing the 12 most recent of 164 posts we hold for @PolyBeats_Bot. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Mentions
Names
Channels on the register whose handles appear in this channel's posts.
A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.
Cite this entry
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 29 August 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“PolyBeats” (@PolyBeats_Bot), 9,795 subscribers as measured 29 August 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/PolyBeats_Bot.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.