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Channel

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetters

On this record: Topic · Observations · Also posting the same content · Growth · Engagement · Posts · Cite this entry

2,837subscribers

-498 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026

Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 1,000–3,162.

Register entry

Telegram ID-1002423585835
TypeChannel
Username@KobeissiLetters
CreatedBetween 1 September 2024 and 31 March 2025— estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated.
First recorded7 August 2026
Last confirmed live14 August 2026
Measurements held4
Confirmed unchanged1 time, most recently 14 August 2026
On Telegramt.me/KobeissiLetters

Topic

Crypto & trading — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-UD-Q6_K_XL, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 11 August 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 60% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and why it has no browse page of its own yet.

Observations

These are measurements, not verdicts. Each one below states something we counted, alongside the evidence it was counted from, so you can check it rather than take it. None of them is graded: every observation this register holds is recorded at severity 0, because the precision of the detectors behind them has not been measured yet, and a rating we cannot support is worse than none. Read each as a fact about the data, not as a judgement about the channel. How we measure.

Content that also appears on other registered channels

Posts published here appear word for word on 2 other registered channels. The matching is on the text itself, not on Telegram’s forward marker, so it finds a copy whether or not it was labelled as one.

Matching posts — open both and compare (6 of the pairs behind the counts below)
Posted firstThenOverlapGap
@MarketMatrixAI/108755 Aug 2026, 15:43 UTC@KobeissiLetters/4074 · this entry5 Aug 2026, 15:53 UTC1.0010 minutes
@MarketMatrixAI/108775 Aug 2026, 17:15 UTC@KobeissiLetters/4076 · this entry5 Aug 2026, 19:09 UTC1.001.9 hours
@MarketMatrixAI/108785 Aug 2026, 18:32 UTC@KobeissiLetters/4077 · this entry5 Aug 2026, 19:10 UTC1.0038 minutes
@MarketMatrixAI/108856 Aug 2026, 12:15 UTC@KobeissiLetters/4079 · this entry6 Aug 2026, 12:54 UTC1.0039 minutes
@MarketMatrixAI/108896 Aug 2026, 16:22 UTC@KobeissiLetters/4082 · this entry6 Aug 2026, 16:28 UTC1.006 minutes
@MarketMatrixAI/108926 Aug 2026, 20:59 UTC@KobeissiLetters/4084 · this entry6 Aug 2026, 21:25 UTC1.0026 minutes
Every channel this entry shares post bodies with
ChannelMatching postsText overlapTypical gapPublished first
@MarketMatrixAI18 (8/8 hand-verifiable sample passed)1.0040 minutes@MarketMatrixAI (180)
@thekobeissiletter8 (8/8 hand-verifiable sample passed)0.9844 minutes@thekobeissiletter (80)

Text overlap is the Jaccard coefficient over the set of distinct three-word phrases in the two bodies: 1.00 is identical wording, and the threshold for counting a pair at all is 0.70. Candidates are generated by simhash LSH (4 x 16-bit bands, exact Hamming <= 3) verified against the bodies with Jaccard over the SET of distinct 3-word shingles. Published first counts which side of each matching pair carries the earlier timestamp — in this corpus, which is the limitation directly below.

What this cannot establish

MEASURED, DOMINANT ERROR SOURCE: a post ingested before 2026-08-06 may have carried a forward header that was not recorded. A 45-pair hand-check against live t.me pages found 14 (31%) where the live page shows a forward header naming the other channel and the database has none, plus 4 more (9%) naming a third party. The text match itself was wrong 0 times out of 45. Read attribution_capture.items_in_trusted_window before treating the unattributed count as a claim.

Telegram lets a channel forward a post with a header naming the source, and we only began reliably recording that header on 2026-08-06. 20 of the 26 matches recorded here fall after that date and carried no header when we read them. The rest predate reliable capture and are not evidence either way.

“Published first” means first in this corpus. We hold 18 comparable posts for this entry, running 5 August 2026 to 7 August 2026. A channel we have read one page deep will look younger than a neighbour we have read in full, and the order would flip with no change in the underlying facts.

The detector’s own notes on this observation, as it recorded them. Names in this_style are fields of the underlying evidence record, which the plain-English paragraphs above read out for this entry.

  • Verbatim republication has three causes and the text separates only two: a clone/mirror, unattributed copy-paste, or BOTH channels copying a common third source that neither attributes. The spread filter (content held by at most 8 channels) reduces the third and does not remove it.
  • 'Earliest' means earliest IN THIS CORPUS. A channel ingested one page deep will look younger than a neighbour ingested in full; corpus_coverage above is there to be checked before the direction is believed.
  • shared_verified_est extrapolates the sampled pass rate over the full narrow match count; sampled/passed are the numbers actually measured.
  • Absence of a forward header is not proof of intent: Telegram lets a channel disable forward attribution, and a credit written in the body is not parsed as attribution here (mention_edge_either_way above is the closest available signal).

Across the whole group of 3, the earliest publisher we hold is @thekobeissiletter. That is a statement about our reading window, not a claim of authorship.

Recorded under the key clone_copy, last confirmed 8 August 2026. An observation that a later pass no longer finds is cleared, and a cleared observation is removed from this page rather than being shown struck through — we do not keep publishing a claim we have withdrawn. Dispute an observation.

Also posting the same content

This channel’s posts match, word for word or near enough, posts on 2 other registered channels, found by comparing text fingerprints across every channel on the register. That matching has been checked by hand against the live Telegram pages and found reliable — 0 wrong of 45 pairs re-read.

Which channel, if either, published first is deliberately not shown. The same hand-check found that reading wrong 18 of 45 times — 60%, no better than a coin flip — because it depends on how deep our own crawl happened to reach into each channel’s history, not on when the content was actually first posted. This list is ordered by subscriber count, the same as every other listing on this site, never by which channel we think came first. Word-for-word matching has several ordinary explanations besides copying — a channel mirroring itself, an unattributed repost, or two channels independently repeating the same wire story — and this measurement cannot tell those apart. How this is measured.

Growth

2,8373,3353,0867 August 2026 — 3,335 subscribers8 August 2026 — 3,305 subscribers11 August 2026 — 3,269 subscribers14 August 2026 — 2,837 subscribers7 August 202614 August 2026
4 measurements spanning 7 days, net -498. Dots are measurements; the straight line between them is drawn to join them, not to claim we know the path taken in between — snapshots are recorded only when a count changes, so gaps mean “no change observed”, never “interpolated”. The vertical axis spans 2,762–3,410 and does not start at zero.
Measurement log — every subscribers count we have recorded
Measured (UTC)SubscribersChange
14 Aug 2026, 19:262,837-432
11 Aug 2026, 18:063,269-36
8 Aug 2026, 16:533,305-30
7 Aug 2026, 18:173,335first reading

Engagement

19 posts held, back to 5 August 2026the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 1 pageof Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.

ERR · 30 days
1.27%
avg views ÷ 2,837 subscribers
Avg views / post
36.1
19 posts measured
Reaction rate
this channel exposes no reaction counts
Posts in window
19
of 19 held

ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.

ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views— note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.

What these figures were computed from
WindowRolling 30 days · latest post in window 7 August 2026
Posts held19 (5 August 20267 August 2026)
Views total685
Reactions total
Forwards / commentsnot exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated
Readings taken7 Aug 2026, 18:17 UTC

Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.

Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.

Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.

Recent posts

7 Aug 2026, 18:09 UTC4 viewsread 7 August 2026
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US productivity growth is accelerating: US labor productivity rose +1.4% annualized rate in Q2 2026, more than double the +0.6% expected. This follows an upwardly revised +0.8% increase in Q1, marking the 5th consecutive quarter of productivity gains. At the same time, US manufacturing productivity jumped +1.9%, driven by a +4.6% surge in output, the strongest increase since Q4 2021. However, these productivity g

7 Aug 2026, 18:09 UTC4 viewsread 7 August 2026

Most people don't realize how big of a growth wave we are currently experiencing. So far, with 88% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, the index has posted +50.4% growth in earnings year-over-year. To put this into perspective, the already astronomical expectation of +23.1% growth has been more than doubled. This will mark the 2nd consecutive quarter of earnings growth above +25% and the 7th consecutive quart

7 Aug 2026, 15:21 UTC18 viewsread 7 August 2026
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BREAKING: Global physical gold-backed ETFs posted +$3.0 billion in inflows in July, the largest monthly intake since April. This pushed global gold ETF holdings up +23 tonnes, to 4,068 tonnes, just below the all-time high of 4,176 tonnes posted on February 27th. European funds led, at +$2.1 billion, followed by Asia, at +$600 million, and North America, at +$71 million. This follows -$2 billion and -$9 billion in

7 Aug 2026, 15:21 UTC18 viewsread 7 August 2026
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US refiners have shifted away from Saudi oil: US imports of Saudi Arabian crude fell to zero in July, marking the first full month without imports since 1985, according to preliminary US government data. This marks a sharp reversal from March, when US refiners were purchasing more than 800,000 barrels of Saudi crude oil per day. This comes as US refiners sought alternative supplies after the closure of the Strait

7 Aug 2026, 15:21 UTC16 viewsread 7 August 2026
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BREAKING: Spot silver prices rise +5% toward $65/oz, now up over +12% this week. Gold futures are nearing $4,400/oz, now at a fresh 8-week high.

7 Aug 2026, 15:21 UTC19 viewsread 7 August 2026
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BREAKING: Gold futures surge above $4,400/oz to their highest level since June 5th on news that the US economy lost -23,000 jobs in July. Gold is now up more than +10% in over the last month.

7 Aug 2026, 15:19 UTC19 viewsread 7 August 2026

BREAKING: The US economy unexpectedly loses -23,000 jobs in July, well below expectations of +85,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below expectations of 4.2%. June's jobs number was also revised down by -37,000 jobs. This marks the 3rd biggest monthly job loss since the pandemic in 2020.

6 Aug 2026, 21:25 UTC73 viewsread 7 August 2026
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AI has become the backbone of US economic growth. Private business investment in AI-related categories jumped +$300 billion YoY in Q2 2026, or +25%, to a record $1.5 trillion annualized rate. The surge was driven primarily by investment in computers and peripheral equipment, followed by communication equipment, software, and data centers. This metric has now surged +$500 billion, or +50%, over the last 2 years. O

6 Aug 2026, 20:23 UTC36 viewsread 7 August 2026
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BREAKING: US data center construction spending jumped +46% YoY in June, to a record annualized rate of $68 billion. This marks the largest YoY increase in 12 months. Since January 2024, US data center construction spending has surged +158% and has more than tripled since 2022. Meanwhile, office building construction spending has declined by over -$25 billion since 2022, to ~$43 billion, the lowest since 2016. As

6 Aug 2026, 16:28 UTC73 viewsread 7 August 2026
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BREAKING: Tether purchased +14 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, bringing total holdings to a record 146 tonnes, now worth ~$18.8 billion. This follows gold purchases of +53 tonnes between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026. Tether’s gold holdings have more than doubled since Q1 2025, while their value has nearly tripled over the same period. This makes the company the largest known private holder of gold outside of central banks and g

6 Aug 2026, 14:35 UTC42 viewsread 7 August 2026
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The US services sector is again signaling stagflation: ISM Services PMI rose +0.1 point in July, to 54.1, while the employment index dropped -3.6 points, to 47.4, the lowest reading since March and back in contraction territory. This is also the 2nd-lowest reading since October and marks the 4th monthly contraction over the last 5. At the same time, the prices paid index surged +2.6 points, to 70.3, near the highe

6 Aug 2026, 14:35 UTC38 viewsread 7 August 2026
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BREAKING: Call option volume in the S&P 500 spiked to a record 4.0 million contracts on Tuesday. This figure has more than doubled over the last several weeks. By comparison, daily call option volume never exceeded 2 million contracts until Q4 2023. Furthermore, call option volume averaged ~700,000 contracts a day in 2020-2021. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 put/call skew, measuring the relative demand for downside prote

Showing the 12 most recent of 19 posts we hold for @KobeissiLetters. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.

Cite this entry

A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 14 August 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.

“The Kobeissi Letter” (@KobeissiLetters), 2,837 subscribers as measured 14 August 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/KobeissiLetters.

Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.