GM,黄金最近两天开始突破了 按照上周周报里讨论过的,第一个止盈点可以放在 4400,具体分析可以见下图 当然完整的报告还讨论了年线级别和过往黄金几次派发和吸筹的完整量价结构,想做更长线的黄金配置的人可以看看👀 https://kevinztrade.substack.com/p/2026-07-31 然后预告一下本周应该会发半导体 ETF 和相关个股的周报,也欢迎大家提一下建议🙏 🙏
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Channel
@kevinz49
On this record: Topic · Growth · Engagement · What this channel posts · Reactions · Posts · Cite this entry
1,426subscribers
+37 since we began measuring on 7 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 1,000–3,162.
| Telegram ID | -1003494413094 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @kevinz49 |
| Created | Between 1 November 2025 and 30 April 2026 — estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated. |
| First recorded | 7 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 12 October 2026 |
| Measurements held | 16 |
| Confirmed unchanged | 1 time, most recently 12 October 2026 |
| On Telegram | t.me/kevinz49 |
Crypto & trading — a classification, not a measurement. An on-box language model (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8, prompt version 1) read this channel’s own recent posts on 17 September 2026 and assigned it the closest of 31 fixed categories, at 82% confidence. This is a model’s judgement about what the channel is likely to be about, not a fact this register measured the way a subscriber count or a view count is measured — it can be revised on a later pass, and it carries no weight anywhere else on this page. How this classification works, and why it has no browse page of its own yet.
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2026, 11:58 | 1,426 | +3 |
| 5 Oct 2026, 08:18 | 1,423 | +5 |
| 27 Sept 2026, 06:20 | 1,418 | +3 |
| 18 Sept 2026, 02:55 | 1,415 | +4 |
| 13 Sept 2026, 12:36 | 1,411 | -3 |
| 9 Sept 2026, 21:00 | 1,414 | +8 |
| 4 Sept 2026, 18:16 | 1,406 | +1 |
| 1 Sept 2026, 05:15 | 1,405 | +2 |
| 29 Aug 2026, 01:43 | 1,403 | -4 |
| 25 Aug 2026, 22:55 | 1,407 | +8 |
| 23 Aug 2026, 02:48 | 1,399 | +5 |
| 19 Aug 2026, 08:11 | 1,394 | +8 |
| 16 Aug 2026, 18:17 | 1,386 | -4 |
| 13 Aug 2026, 08:47 | 1,390 | +1 |
| 7 Aug 2026, 22:17 | 1,389 | no change |
| 7 Aug 2026, 18:25 | 1,389 | first reading |
18 posts held, back to 17 June 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 1 page of Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
Nothing published in the last 30 days. ERR and ER are rolling 30-day measures, so there is nothing to compute — we hold 18 posts for this entry, the most recent from 6 August 2026. An engagement rate over an empty window would be a number about nothing.
Measured directly from 1 video with a duration reading, out of the posts we hold for this channel — not this channel’s whole posting history, only the sample this register has actually read. An exact reading to the second, taken from the post itself rather than from Telegram’s own rounded chrome, so it carries no ≈ mark.
93 reactions across 17 posts, in 4 distinct kinds. The most used accounts for 73.1% of them.
| Reaction | Count | Share | Share, drawn |
|---|---|---|---|
| ❤ | 68 | 73.1% | |
| 👍 | 23 | 24.7% | |
| 🔥 | 1 | 1.08% | |
| 😁 | 1 | 1.08% |
No sentiment is inferred, and none should be read in. This table is ordered by count and by nothing else. Emoji do not carry stable meaning across languages or communities — 🙏 is thanks in one channel and mourning in another — so we publish which ones were pressed and how often, and pass no judgement on what an audience meant by them.
Precision. Telegram publishes reaction counts per emoji and short-forms each one — 4.34K, 1.2M — so any single kind at or above 1,000 reaches us at three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. The shares above are ratios of those figures and carry the same error. This is also why the total here can differ slightly from a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page: both are sums of the same rounded parts, taken over samples with different edges.
Coverage. Reactions were read on 17 of the 18 sampled posts in this sample. Summed by Telegram’s own count on each post — not by adding up the per-emoji breakdown above — those same posts carry 93 reactions in total: the kind of figure the paragraph above means by “a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page”.
Measured over the 18 most recent posts we hold, published 17 June 2026 to 6 August 2026, using the newest reading held for each. Telegram Stars are excluded: they are a payment, not a reaction, and they have their own section.
GM,黄金最近两天开始突破了 按照上周周报里讨论过的,第一个止盈点可以放在 4400,具体分析可以见下图 当然完整的报告还讨论了年线级别和过往黄金几次派发和吸筹的完整量价结构,想做更长线的黄金配置的人可以看看👀 https://kevinztrade.substack.com/p/2026-07-31 然后预告一下本周应该会发半导体 ETF 和相关个股的周报,也欢迎大家提一下建议🙏 🙏
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话说我发现大家对于美股大盘的情况似乎不是很感冒 = = 那么大家最近在关注什么标的,有哪些感兴趣并希望我分析讨论的嘛? 欢迎本条下面留言交流👀🙏
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补充一下美股大盘NQ和 SP500的周线图情况。很明显能看出走出了一个上涨楔形 SOT,而且 NQ 已经开始测试冰线 1;SP500 虽然结构略好一些,但是也有上涨疲态了,具体可以看周报的分析。 总之如果手里个股还有盈利的可以考虑慢慢离场了,因为大盘的见顶 往往是一个缓慢的过程,可能需要数月的准备。在大盘全面走弱之前个股还能卖个好价格,一旦大盘开始真的下跌,个股只会更惨
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美股 SP500 现在什么情况了? 大多数人还在等反弹,但量价结构已经给出了一些信号。上周五那根阴线打破了三周的上涨积累,7475这个关键支撑位经历三次测试后终于失守——多头动能正在衰退。 接下来的反弹能否收复7540?如果失败,下一个目标会在7400、7236还是7040? 最新周报里有详细的量价分析拆解。 👉 完整分析在这里: https://open.substack.com/pub/kevinztrade/p/sp500-2026-07-27
上周我说过,重点观察阻力 2 位置的突破情况 结果价格最高打到 66,923,刚好卡在阻力 2 下方,然后回落到 64k, 更像是一次上沿测试失败 这次 66,923 的上冲回落,到底只是健康回踩,还是已经构成 UT / LPSY 的候选? 我在本周周报里重点拆了几个问题: - 为什么 3 日线 Spring 假设本周要被推翻; - 为什么 65k-67k 上方供应依然压制需求; - 下周 BTC 最应该盯的回踩区间; - 什么情况下还能继续看二攻 66,924-67,264; - 什么情况下要把本周上冲改写成诱多 / LPSY; - 多头、空头、观望分别对应哪几条风控线。 周报全文已经发在 Substack里,里面有完整的量价图、关键价位和下周交易剧本,欢迎大家观看交流🫡:https://kevinztrade.substack.com/p/btc-2026-07-25
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周报里面说的第一阻力位 65553 今天被突破了:https://kevinztrade.substack.com/p/btc-2026-07-18 这种关键位置被突破我一般习惯观察几个点: 1. 后续回调会不会超过这次小范围拉升的 50% 2. 在下一个阻力位时的量价表现(如果也很顺利通过 67265,那么就要看 7w了) 3. 止损点会放在略低于放量突破显著 k 的下方 然而小级别做多的策略下还是需要意识到,大级别依然未构成趋势反转,只是下跌趋势中的修复反弹。目前的成交量也达不到熊市结束的要求。具体原因可以看这篇分析:https://kevinztrade.substack.com/p/btc-2026-07-16
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有关注我推特的家人应该发现我开始宣传我的Substack了 其实这个事情是我和 dbskills 聊出来的结果 🤣 具体的原因如下: 1. 推特的长文风潮已经过去,现在算法不偏爱了 2. 从大家注意力情况来看,推特更适合高频短篇(至少我自己看不完 tw 上的长文 3. 很多优秀的老师目前也在走推特引流+个人平台交付的模式(比如一些海外的Youtuber,还有我关注的一些美股的老师) 4. 我自己也希望有个地方能沉淀更专业的交易分析内容作为track record 综上,我就开始了初期的实验。目前每周的BTC周报内容都是免费的,如果你对于BTC持续关注以及希望能抄到底部,欢迎先免费订阅,周报会每周自动发给你的邮箱: BTC 周报:https://kevinztrade.substack.com/p/btc-2026-07-18 BTC 牛熊分界:https://kevinztrade.substack.com/p/btc-20…
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又来推荐书了。重点推荐第三篇:如何提问 我想正确的提问应该是在 AI 时代最重要的能力之一了。而这本书给出了非常系统的思考和提问 SOP,对于需要每天学习新东西,产出新内容的人来说非常实用
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今晚的数据结果推荐 frank 老师的解读:https://x.com/qinbafrank/status/2072665494768021550?s=46&t=Kq7GhGre0VAMtClI37D9iQ
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为什么非农数据就业太好,美股可能跌;就业太差,美股也可能跌? 今晚八点半公布非农就业报告 如果非农太强,比如新增就业明显高于预期、工资也偏热,市场会立刻重新定价 Fed: 既然就业还这么强,工资压力还在,为什么要急着降息? 结果就是 2 年美债收益率上行、美元走强,AI、半导体、纳指和 BTC 这类长久期/流动性敏感资产反而被压 但如果非农太差,也不一定是利好 因为市场第一秒可能会想降息来了,但第二天就会开始问:企业为什么突然不招人了?工时是不是在下降?失业率是不是在跳升?如果结果导致企业增长和盈利下修,那就不是降息交易,而是衰退交易 最友好的组合如下 ⬇️ NFP:90K-130K 失业率:4.3%-4.4% 工资 MoM:0.2%-0.3% 工时:不明显下滑 前值:无大幅下修 不是强非农,也不是弱非农,而是温和弱:新增就业降温,工资放缓,失业率不跳,工时不塌。它既给 Fed 降息理由,又不让市场担心企业利润崩 发布…
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马上要到上半年最后一个交易日了 收盘情况会影响下半年的一些走势 最近也在思考一些问题,但都还没有明确的答案: 1. 去年 11 月份开始一直在执行BTC short only 的策略,什么时候可以开始 long only? 2. 美光的财报本周以一己之力起到了极大的市场安抚作用,也成功转移了市场的恐慌焦点,让大家暂时忘却了宏观上我们面临着极大的压力,用局部繁荣掩盖了其他板块正在失血的事实。从大盘上来看我们是否已经进入高位的派发? 3. 如果真的连 AI 产业链龙头都发生大回撤(我在推特小号里分享 NVDA 其实已经走得不太好看,上涨动能失效),那么我们应该如何操作? 是做空那些被叙事炒作高估应该被杀估值的票,还是等待回撤后上车? 4. 如果你相信 AI 未来 10 年还有 10 倍增长空间,那长期来看哪些标的值得建仓?
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昨晚 Micron 的财报算是给市场的下跌踩了刹车 但是今晚 8:30 还有 PCE 数据需要交易 最理想的情况是 PCE 温和 + 2Y 美债下行 + DXY 回落 + Nasdaq/BTC 跟涨 数据本身只是一层,还需要看 2Y UST、DXY 是否同向确认
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Showing the 12 most recent of 18 posts we hold for @kevinz49. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 12 October 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“全职猎人(2026财运亨通版)” (@kevinz49), 1,426 subscribers as measured 12 October 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/kevinz49.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.