Channel
@deciphermacro
On this record: Growth · Engagement · Reactions · Posts · Citations · Cite this entry
2,868subscribers
+3 since we began measuring on 6 August 2026
Risers and fallers across the register · movement among entries of 1,000–3,162.
| Telegram ID | -1002600892706 |
|---|---|
| Type | Channel |
| Username | @deciphermacro |
| Created | Between 1 March 2025 and 31 July 2025— estimated from Telegram’s id allocation, not measured. How this range is calculated. |
| First recorded | 6 August 2026 |
| Last confirmed live | 12 August 2026 |
| Measurements held | 4 |
| Confirmed unchanged | 1 time, most recently 12 August 2026 |
| On Telegram | t.me/deciphermacro |
| Measured (UTC) | Subscribers | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026, 23:38 | 2,868 | +5 |
| 9 Aug 2026, 17:23 | 2,863 | -2 |
| 6 Aug 2026, 05:05 | 2,865 | no change |
| 6 Aug 2026, 02:34 | 2,865 | first reading |
15 posts held, back to 14 July 2026 — the reader has not yet reached the start of this channel’s public history, so older posts may sit further back, unread. Read across 2 pagesof Telegram’s post history, 20 posts per page.
ERR is average views per post over the last 30 days divided by subscribers, the definition TGStat uses, so this figure is comparable with the one you will see elsewhere. It falls structurally as a channel grows: a high ERR on a small channel and a low one on a large channel describe reach mathematics, not quality. We publish the figure and the sample it came from and pass no verdict on it.
ER is defined industry-wide as (forwards + reactions + comments) ÷ views— note the denominator is views, not subscribers. Telegram’s public web preview carries views and reactions but not forward or comment counts, so the reaction rate above is the reactions term only and is therefore a floor: the true ER for this channel is higher by an amount we have not measured and will not estimate.
| Window | Rolling 30 days · latest post in window 30 July 2026 |
|---|---|
| Posts held | 15 (14 July 2026 – 30 July 2026) |
| Views total | 13,673 |
| Reactions total | 177 |
| Forwards / comments | not exposed by the public surface — not measured, not estimated |
| Readings taken | 7 Aug 2026, 16:06 UTC |
Views are a single reading per post, taken at the time above. A post published in the last day or two is still accumulating views, which pulls the 30-day average down slightly. That is a property of the standard definition rather than a fault in it, so we keep the definition rather than “correcting” the number into something nobody can reproduce.
Precision. Telegram publishes view counts on its public widget in short form — 8.12K, 3.7M — so any reading at or above 1,000 reaches us rounded to three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. Averages and rates derived from them are shown to the same precision rather than to the unit: a figure like 3,701,250 would assert digits nobody measured.
Reaction counts are published per emoji and rounded the same way, so a total below 1,000 is exact and a larger one is a sum that may carry a rounded component from each emoji above 1,000. Because it is a sum, it does not look rounded — read a large reaction total as three significant figures per contributing emoji rather than as the figure it prints.
202 reactions across 14 posts, in 1 kind.
| Reaction | Count | Share | Share, drawn |
|---|---|---|---|
| ❤ | 202 | 100.0% |
No sentiment is inferred, and none should be read in. This table is ordered by count and by nothing else. Emoji do not carry stable meaning across languages or communities — 🙏 is thanks in one channel and mourning in another — so we publish which ones were pressed and how often, and pass no judgement on what an audience meant by them.
Precision. Telegram publishes reaction counts per emoji and short-forms each one — 4.34K, 1.2M — so any single kind at or above 1,000 reaches us at three significant figures, and only counts below 1,000 are exact. The shares above are ratios of those figures and carry the same error. This is also why the total here can differ slightly from a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page: both are sums of the same rounded parts, taken over samples with different edges.
Coverage. Reactions were read on 14 of the 15 sampled posts in this sample. Summed by Telegram’s own count on each post — not by adding up the per-emoji breakdown above — those same posts carry 202reactions in total: the kind of figure the paragraph above means by “a reaction total printed elsewhere on the page”.
Measured over the 15 most recent posts we hold, published 14 July 2026 to 30 July 2026, using the newest reading held for each. Telegram Stars are excluded: they are a payment, not a reaction, and they have their own section.
Рынок больше не спорит с риторикой. Он спорит с credibility. После заседания Fed произошел классический bear steepening: front-end rally, long-end selloff. Это один из самых неприятных сценариев для центрального банка. Если бы рынок поверил Warsh, росли бы прежде всего короткие ставки - через ожидания скорого hike. Вместо этого инвесторы потребовали более высокую term premium на длинном конце. Это означает нескольк…
❤11
Рынок начал aggressively unwind geopolitical risk premium. Падение Brent на ~16% за три сессии - это не история про физический рынок. Это история про positioning, systematic flows и repricing вероятностей. Основные драйверы: 🛑De-escalation trade. Любые признаки дипломатии между США, Ираном и Израилем мгновенно сокращают премию за риск. Рынок торгует ожидания, а не текущие баррели. 🛑CTA liquidation. Trend-following ф…
❤16
Обзор макро событий текущей недели Learn ◽️ Explore ◽️ Channel
❤18
Рынок снова продает volatility и покупает carry. Это всегда выглядит комфортно ровно до момента, когда перестает работать. Carry уже не просто стратегия - это crowded trade. Когда Citi, Goldman, JPMorgan и buy-side синхронно говорят, что “еще есть место”, меня интересует не потенциальный upside, а структура риска. Что действительно важно: 🛑FX volatility находится на минимальных уровнях цикла. Именно низкая realized…
❤20
Рынок уже перестал обсуждать риторику Burnham. Теперь обсуждают funding. Именно здесь будет определяться судьба gilts и GBP. Burnham продает рынку идею growth through transformation. Проблема в том, что трансформация стоит дорого. Список обязательств быстро растет: 🛑реформа social care; 🛑повышение personal allowance; 🛑поддержка домохозяйств через снижение счетов за электроэнергию; 🛑региональные инвестиции и devolut…
❤15
Рынок перестал торговать баланс спроса и предложения. Сейчас он торгует tail risk. Brent закрыл почти полный внутридневной диапазон: +4%, затем -2%, затем обратно к $88. Такая волатильность — признак того, что ликвидность исчезает, а каждый заголовок становится новым прайсингом геополитического риска. Что действительно важно: 🛑Hormuz снова становится главным активом рынка. Когда под ударом оказываются танкеры, а т…
❤18
Рынок получает policy reset, а не просто нового премьер-министра. Для gilts, GBP и UK equities сейчас важнее не фамилия в кабинете, а ответ на вопрос: сохранится ли фискальная дисциплина при более активной промышленной политике. Что рынок уже начинает прайсить: 🛑Fiscal continuity. Burnham публично сохраняет бюджетные правила Рэйчел Ривз и обязательства манифеста Labour. Это снижает вероятность немедленного повторен…
❤13
Рынок начинает repricing Chinese AI. История уже не про “догнать OpenAI”, а про появление полноценного второго технологического полюса с собственным капиталом, моделями и инфраструктурой. Moonshot готовится к IPO на фоне сильной операционной динамики: 🛑ARR $300 млн за три года существования — это уже не research lab, а коммерческий AI-бизнес. 🛑Новый раунд по оценке >$30 млрд говорит о том, что private markets готов…
❤15
Decipher Macro pinned a photo
15:30. CPI выходит выше прогноза. Первая реакция выглядит очевидно: доходности растут, доллар укрепляется, risk assets падают. Вы открываете позицию вслед за движением. Через двадцать минут рынок разворачивается. Цифра не изменилась. Инфляция не стала ниже. ФРС не выпустила новое заявление. Но сделка, которая казалась логичной, перестала работать почти сразу после входа. Именно в такие моменты становится понятно,…
❤14
TSMC повышает сразу два ключевых ориентира: 2026 revenue growth выше 40% и capex до $60–64 млрд. Это не косметическая корректировка. Компания фактически говорит, что спрос на advanced nodes и AI-инфраструктуру остается структурным минимум до 2027 года. 🛑AI buildout продолжается. Когда крупнейший foundry в мире увеличивает инвестиции сильнее ожиданий, это косвенно подтверждает планы Nvidia, hyperscalers и всей цепочк…
❤10
Победа над инфляцией в июне выглядит убедительно только на первый взгляд. Заголовочный CPI снизился на 0,4%, базовая инфляция вообще не выросла, но почти весь эффект обеспечило резкое падение цен на энергию. Бензин подешевел на 9,7%, энергетика в целом на 5,7%, без этого инфляция была бы близка к нулю, а не ушла в минус. Если убрать еще несколько разовых факторов, картина становится менее оптимистичной. Сильное сниж…
❤21
Showing the 12 most recent of 15 posts we hold for @deciphermacro. View and reaction counts are the latest single reading for each post, not a live figure, and a recent post is still accumulating both. A view count marked ≈ was rounded by Telegram before we ever saw it — t.me prints views in full below 1,000 and to three significant figures above, so ≈1,200,000 means somewhere between 1,150,000 and 1,249,999. Unmarked counts are exact. Text is reproduced from the public post preview and truncated for length.
Citation-graph rank — 80,805 of 1,160,990entries in the measured graph. A weighted position computed from the forward and mention edges below — republished posts weigh more than named mentions — and recomputed periodically, over the whole graph. Published only as this ordinal position, never as a score: a position is a fact, and a score printed beside one channel’s name would read as a verdict this register does not make. The two counts beneath stay separate for the same reason mentions are never summed with forwards anywhere else on this page — a named-by count costs nothing to manufacture. The top 100 by this measure, or how it is computed.
Named by 1 registered channel — every channel on the register whose own posts have named this one, by its current username or any other username it currently holds, merged from two separately captured readings of the same fact so a namer caught by only one of them is not missed and a namer both caught is not counted twice. A username this channel has since dropped is not matched — that handle may belong to someone else now, and crediting today’s namer to yesterday’s owner would misattribute it.
Named by
Channels on the register whose posts name this channel's handle.
A mention is a weaker signal than a forward and is counted separately for that reason — naming a channel is not republishing it, and a handle in a post body is easy to place deliberately. The post counts beside each row below are distinct posts in which the handle appeared, from posts we have read on both sides — the “Named by N registered channels” figure above is a different count, of distinct NAMING CHANNELS rather than posts, and is not the sum of the rows under it.
A live page changes as we take new readings, so a citation should name the measurement it is based on, not just the URL. The line below cites the subscriber count as measured 12 August 2026 — this entry's latest reading, not the date you are reading this.
“Decipher Macro” (@deciphermacro), 2,868 subscribers as measured 12 August 2026. Telegram Register, tgregister.com/channel/deciphermacro.
Full measurement history, CC BY 4.0. Every reading this register holds for this entry, not just the latest one, as a dated, downloadable record: CSV · JSON. Free to use with attribution to tgregister.com. Each file carries its own generation timestamp, which is the figure to cite for exactly when the data was retrieved.